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Arnold Palmer Invitational betting guide: 6 picks our gambling expert loves

Our expert likes Viktor Hovland's chances this week.

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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which gets underway Thursday in Orlando, Fla. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp,  a free-to-play mobile platform  that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money.

We have reached the 10th tournament of the 2024 PGA Tour schedule and with it, the fourth Signature Event of the young season. Sixty-nine players are in the limited field classic that is the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Country Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida.

Bay Hill is a par 72 that stretches out to nearly 7,500 yards. As we saw last week in Palm Beach Gardens, water, sand, and wind are the primary hazards that this week’s test will present. The forecast this week looks pretty typical for Florida: an occasional shower, temperatures in the low 80s, and winds anywhere from 10-15 mph. Breezes and gusts of anywhere from 12-20 mph are where we start to see a golf ball affected, so it looks like that will definitely be a part of the equation at times during this tournament.

The rain may soften this golf course somewhat but it could also make an already thick rough, play even more difficult. The larger, relatively flat Bermudagrass greens here are typically firm and fast. Even a little rain should not alter that too much.

As it was last week, Ball-Striking is again my primary focus for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Specifically, I looked at Driving Distance and SG: Off the Tee, or Total Driving in a sense. I also looked at SG: Approach and Greens in Regulation Gained and Hole Proximity from 175-200+ yards. Bay Hill, including the par 3s, presents players with more 200+ yard approach shots than any other course on the PGA Tour rotation. Finally, I also considered Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling.

Other golf courses we see regularly where Total Driving and Ball Striking are at a premium (and thus make for good comps to Bay Hill) are as follows: TPC Scottsdale, Congaree in South Carolina, Olympia Fields, Southern Hills (where the 2022 PGA Championship was staged), Oak Hill (where the PGA Championship was played last year), Quail Hollow, and Memorial Park in Houston.

Throw that all into the mix, and here are six players I landed on for an outright win plus a Top 20 finish. 

Viktor Hovland (17-1)

After finishing 2023 on a tear, Hovland has yet to find that groove again so far in 2024, but he did show some signs a few weeks ago in Los Angeles at the Genesis Invitational where he finished 19th. This week, however, is a perfect place for him to find another gear. He meets all of the criteria as one of the best drivers, ball-strikers, and long-iron players in the world. He’s finished 10th and runner-up here at Bay Hill previously, was runner-up at Oak Hill, won at Olympia Fields last summer, and has finished third at Quail Hollow. 

Sam Burns (26-1)

This will be Burns’ seventh time playing Bay Hill, with his best finish being 9th. He has finished third and sixth in Phoenix, seventh at Congaree, 15th at Olympia Fields, and seventh twice at the Houston Open. He doesn’t fit the profile for me as strongly as Hovland does but I can’t ignore the fact that Burns comes in having recorded four top-10 finishes in a row this season on Tour — and he’s one of the best putters on Bermudagrass.

Cam Young (30-1)

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: Our long-shot pick is looking for his third PGA Tour win

Young fits a little bit of both as far as course profile and current form. He was eighth in Phoenix, 16th at Riviera, and finished fourth last week at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. Over the last 24 rounds, Young is fifth for SG: Off the Tee, 17th in Greens in Regulation Gained, and ranks in the top-10 in this field for Hole Proximity from 175-200+ yards. He’s finished 10th and 13th here at Bay Hill and was third at Southern Hills at the 2022 PGA Championship.

Matt Fitzpatrick (32-1)

U.S. Open winners are almost always exceptional ballstrikers and Fitzpatrick has had incredible success at the correlated courses I used this week. He’s finished ninth and 14th here at Bay Hill, 15th and 10th at TPC Scottsdale, 10th and 13th at Congaree, fifth at Southern Hills, and sixth and runner-up at Olympia Fields. He comes off a 21st-place finish last week at PGA National and over the last 24 rounds, ranks eighth in this field for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and 23rd for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass).

Tommy Fleetwood (32-1)

The Englishman comes in off of a 10th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational and has three top-10 finishes here at Bay Hill. He has a fourth-place finish at Congaree, a fifth at both Southern Hills and Quail Hollow, and was 18th at Oak Hill at last year’s PGA Championship. He’s one of the best players in this field on difficult golf courses and ranks 15th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds.

Keegan Bradley (55-1)

We’re diving a little deeper down the board with this one but Bradley matches the profile we’re looking for here as a career ball-striker, total-driver, long-iron type player. All of that has shown up at Bay Hill, where he has recorded two 10th-place finishes, an 11th, a third, and a runner-up in his career. Over the last 24 rounds, Bradley ranks 28th in this field for Greens in Regulation Gained, 22nd for Driving Distance, and 19th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards.

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Sleeper Picks: Texas Children's Houston Open

Sleeper Picks

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Mackenzie Hughes (+5000) … When a guy is fresh off a T3 like he is at the Valspar Championship, he doesn’t present as a classic Sleeper the very next week. However, this bet requires a finish two spots higher. It also means that he’d be going lower than the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark and defending champion Tony Finau, all of whom were automatics for the Power Rankings. But it’s still a new week and Hughes’ experience at Memorial Park is objectively impressive. He’s 3-for-3 with a T7 (2020), a T16 (2022) and a scoring average of 69 on the difficult par 70. The big bonus is that he led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting en route to both top 20s. Someone has to but that he’s done it twice on Tom Doak’s redesign with serious undulations is proof that Hughes already has cracked the code.

Taylor Moore (+900) … No Power Rankings is presented as a prediction of the final results of any tournament, but when a golfer finishes in close proximity to a top 10 after appearing in the same vicinity in the Power Rankings, it’s always checked off as a projection fulfilled. Top 10s are the objective. Because top fives can require some luck, those are bonuses. For his first-ever title defense on the PGA TOUR, Moore was No. 11 in the Power Rankings for last week’s Valspar Championship . Amid the new and exciting experience that included unprecedented distractions, he finished in a five-way tie for 12th. In what has been a solid-not-spectacular 2024, it’s easily his best finish. He ranked fourth in greens hit and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That’s now in the rearview mirror, his focus is singular (translation: Houston will feel like a lighter week) and his irons will travel to Memorial Park, which will reward momentum for this bonus.

Akshay Bhatia (+500) … Although he’s one of the fresher faces of the PGA TOUR and an exciting talent, he truly is a Sleeper for this finish if for no other reason than Memorial Park is far from the kind of exposed, tropical stage on which he’s shone time and again. However, the lefty has connected for four top 20s in 2024, so he’s been just outside the bubble frequently. That includes a T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T17 at last week’s Valspar Championship where he tripped out of the gate with a 3-over 74. So, he’s coming around on exploiting how courses can elevate his phenomenal iron game. If you’re keen, he’s +250 for a Top 20 in Houston.

Martin Laird (+600) … In his heyday of a decade ago, the Scot was a force on challenging tracks that rewarded power and precision from tee to green. Now 41 years of age, he’s lost a little life off his fastball but he’s remained dangerous enough never to have lost his fully exempt status. What’s carried forward is a penchant to ride a groove, and he’s in one right now. Since the WM Phoenix Open, a transplanted hometown stop where his record is strong, he’s 4-for-4 with consecutive top 10s baked into the middle. Placed T22 in his last trip to Memorial Park during the fall of 2022 when he had sustained solid form long enough to rise for that finish. If you’re not interested in the reach, he’s a valuable +200 for a Top 40.

Tom Whitney (+333) … Although he’s a PGA TOUR rookie in his tournament debut, this is surprisingly attractive value. He’s fresh off a T33 at Valspar, another debut on a tough test where he ranked inside the top 15 in fairways hit, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, par-5 scoring and scrambling, so he now has two top 40s in six starts this season. The other was a T13 at perennially punishing Torrey Pines. His skill set slides comfortably into a track like Memorial Park where ball-striking is key. But his secret weapon continues to be the fact that he’s 34 years of age with a military background and personal perspective that no one else can touch. When the challenge inside the ropes intensifies, he already has the kind of mettle necessary to go to work.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on Twitter .

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Valero texas open 2024 odds, course history and picks to win, share this article.

Before all eyes turn to Augusta National Golf Club and the first men’s major championship of the year, a loaded field has made its way to San Antonio, Texas, for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course.

World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, who last tied for 19th at the Players Championship, is joined by Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and defending champion Corey Conners.

Conners, who tied for 13th at TPC Sawgrass in his last start, also won this event in 2019.

Several of the game’s biggest names are using this week as a final tune-up for the Masters, including Spieth, who has missed the cut in each of his last two starts (Players Championship and Valspar Championship).

Golf course

TPC San Antonio | Par 72 | 7,438 yards

Course history

Course history at TPC San Antonio for the #TexasValeroOpen going back to 2015. -Includes average finish position and Strokes Gained per round. Players are sorted by SG: Total. -7th most predictive annual course on Tour. Get all of my analysis, charts, articles, bets, and "The… pic.twitter.com/GKOPZQM3rD — Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) April 1, 2024

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Picks to win

Previous event results (texas children's houston open).

Stephan Jaeger celebrates with his family after winning the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on March 31, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Raj Mehta/Getty Images)

Before you get on me, hand up. I gotta be better. None of my picks in my preview hit, but I hit Stephan Jaeger at +4500. Should I have shared the pick? Absolutely. Will I apologize for hitting my second outright in the last six weeks? Absolutely not.

JAEGER!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/XMRv21SZHF — Riley (@rileyhamel_) March 31, 2024

Moving forward, I’ll be posting my final cards on my X (formerly known as Twitter). You can follow me here: @RileyHamel_

Alex Noren (30/1)

Alex Noren of Sweden watches his shot from the 12th tee during the first round of the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on March 28, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)

The Swede has played incredibly consistent golf since the calendar flipped to 2024. He has played in seven events, he has made seven cuts and he has finished inside the top 20 in three straight starts (T-11 at the Houston Open last week).

In his lone appearance at the Valero (2023), Noren tied for 15th.

Billy Horschel (35/1)

Billy Horschel (USA) hits his approach shot from the 18th fairway during the final round of the Texas Children’s Houston Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

It looks like Billy Ho has found his game.

In his last four starts, he has finished T-9 at the Cognizant Classic, T-12 at the Valspar Championship and T-7 at last week’s Houston Open (he missed the cut at the Players during that span).

Horschel hasn’t played in the Valero since 2019, but he has posted a few notable finishes throughout his career: T-11 (2018), T-4 (2016), 3rd (2015) and T-3 (2013).

Keith Mitchell (60/1)

Keith Mitchell of the United States reacts on the 11th green during the first round of the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on March 28, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)

Mitchell is coming off a missed cut at the Houston Open (rounds of 71-71). However, before his short week at Memorial Park, the one-time Tour winner finished inside the top 20 in four of his previous five starts. Not bad.

The Georgia Bulldog has teed it up twice in the Valero, finishing T-26 in 2018 and T-17 in 2021.

Cashmere Keith is due for a win. Why not this week?

Check out some of the best equipment you can buy: Best drivers for 2024 | Best irons for 2024 | Best putters for 2024 | Best golf balls for 2024

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2024 Valero Texas Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

P layers will have one last chance to tune their game before the Masters this week at the 2024 Valero Texas Open , which is once again being held at TPC San Antonio. Corey Conners will look to defend his title after winning the event last year with a score of 15-under par.

Below, we look at the 2024 Valero Texas Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions .

Rory McIlroy typically doesn't play the week before the Masters but he's in the Texas Open field this year and the betting favorite to win at +1000. Ludvig Aberg (+1200), Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) and Collin Morikawa (+2500) are among the other big names teeing it up this week.

TPC San Antonio is a par 72 and plays at 7,438 yards with very little elevation change throughout the course. It's not an overly challenging course, with the winning score being between 11-under and 20-under par over the last 8 years. However, if the wind picks up it will have a big impact on scoring.

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Valero Texas Open – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:53 p.m. ET.

Ludvig Aberg (+1200)

Aberg is only in his 1st full season on the PGA Tour, but he's already one of the best ball strikers in the world and that's highly advantageous on this course. He ranks 24th in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season and his putting isn't holding him back too much (57th in SG), so he's a perfect fit for TPC San Antonio, even after missing the cut here last year.

Corey Conners (+2200)

It's always hard to expect the defending champion to win in back-to-back years but Conners' course history and ball-striking prowess make him too good to ignore. He's won here twice since 2019 (his only 2 PGA wins)  and hasn't finished worse than 35th in his last 5 starts in this event, using his stellar iron play to propel him to 2 victories.

Valero Texas Open picks – Contenders

Keith mitchell (+5500).

After blowing a 54-hole lead at the Valspar Championship 2 weeks ago, Mitchell missed the cut at the Texas Children's Houston Open over the weekend after finishing 3-over in his last 5 holes to miss it by 1 shot. He's still among the best players on tour from tee to green, ranking 8th in strokes gained, and he's finished 17th and 26th in 2 starts here during his career. He's due for a bounce-back.

Erik van Rooyen (+6600)

van Rooyen has not been good around the greens this season, which is holding him back from contending more, but he's 48th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 19th total. Before he missed the cut at the Players Championship, he finished 8th, 2nd and 25th in 3 consecutive tournaments.

Valero Texas Open picks – Long shots

Ryan moore (+10000).

Moore is quietly playing well right now, finishing 31st, 5th and 45th in his last 3 starts. Impressively, he's 12th in SG: tee-to-green, including 4th in approach, but his putting has been horrific (173rd). TPC San Antonio is more about ball striking than putting, which has helped him finish in the top 10 twice before, so he's a worthy long shot this week.

Matt Kuchar (+12500)

Kuchar has finished 3rd, 2nd, 12th and 7th in his last 4 starts at this tournament, an event he plays every year. Looking at his stats from this season gives you pause when it comes to betting him because he isn't playing well (6 missed cuts in 8 starts), but it's hard to ignore his recent finishes at TPC San Antonio.

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For more sports betting picks and tips , check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW .

• Who PGA Tour players want to see on the next season of 'Full Swing' on Netflix
• Scottie Scheffler explains what he saw (or didn't see) on missed birdie putt at 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: 2024 Valero Texas Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

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2024 WM Phoenix Open one and done picks, field, top sleepers: PGA Tour predictions, expert golf betting advice

Mike mcclure locked in his pga one and done golf picks, rankings and top sleepers for the wm phoenix open 2024 at tpc scottsdale.

The PGA Tour descends upon TPC Scottsdale this week for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines the 2024 WM Phoenix Open field as the two-time defending tournament champion. With a win, Scheffler will become the first player to win an event three straight years since Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Scheffler comes in as the 5-1 betting favorite in the latest 2024 WM Phoenix Open odds, followed by Justin Thomas (10-1), Max Homa (16-1), Sam Burns (20-1), Jordan Spieth (20-1), Sungjae Im (30-1), and Min Woo Lee (33-1). The total 2024 WM Phoenix Open purse is $8.8 million, with the winner's share listed as $1.584 million.

Should you target one of the favorites like Scheffler, Thomas, Spieth, or Homa when making your one and done picks this week? Or should you back a long shot like Wyndham Clark, Hideki Matsuyama, or Rickie Fowler? Before locking in your 2024 WM Phoenix Open one and done picks, you need to see what SportsLine DFS pro and PGA expert Mike McClure has to say . 

The One and Done format is growing in popularity. It has several noticeable similarities to NFL Survivor pools, with the main difference being entries are not eliminated with a bad week. Players pick one golfer per week and earn points based on their selected golfer's prize money for that tournament. Golfers can only be used once per season, and the point format makes nailing majors and big money tournaments critical.

McClure is a DFS legend with over $2 million in career winnings, and he's been red-hot on his PGA picks dating back to the PGA Tour restart in June of 2020. McClure uses his proprietary simulation model to analyze the field and crush his  golf picks .

McClure nailed plenty of One and Done picks in 2023. At the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, McClure's top One and Done pick, Max Homa, outlasted the entire field to take home his sixth career PGA Tour victory and $1.566 million. At the WM Phoenix Open, McClure nailed Scheffler winning the tournament, taking home $3.6 million.

He correctly called Jon Rahm's wins at The Masters and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Then at the RBC Canadian Open McClure listed Nick Taylor and Tyrrell Hatton as two of his top one and done picks. Taylor would go on to win the tournament, while Hatton finished in third place. And finally, at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, his top OAD pick was eventual tournament champion Rickie Fowler.

This season, one of his top OAD picks was for The American Express was Justin Thomas, who finished in third place and took home $635,600, and at last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am his top pick was Scottie Scheffler, who finished in sixth place after the final round was cancelled due to weather. 

Now, McClure has dialed in on the WM Phoenix Open golf tournament and just locked in his one and done picks and PGA predictions. They are a must-see for any player looking for an edge in their One and Done pool. You can only see McClure's WM Phoenix Open 2024 one and done picks at SportsLine .

Top 2024 WM Phoenix Open One and Done picks

One player McClure is targeting in his OAD picks this week for the WM Phoenix Open is Max Homa. The world No. 8 comes in at 16-1 to win this event, and he has the personality to thrive in front of what is sure to be a wild crowd in Arizona. Homa has won six times on the PGA TOUR, and McClure believes he has what it takes to notch his seventh career victory at TPC Scottsdale.

Homa finished the 2023 season ranked at or near the top of the PGA Tour in several key metrics. He ranked sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting (0.612), ninth in total strokes gained (1.638), 15th in strokes gained tee-to-green (1.026), and 26th in strokes gained on approach (0.475). He's gotten off to another fast start in 2024, finishing in the top-15 in two out of his three starts, and McClure expects to see his name near the top of the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.  You can see who else to back at SportsLine .

How to make WM Phoenix Open 2024 One and Done picks

McClure is also targeting another golfer for his 2024 WM Phoenix Open one and done picks who was outstanding throughout the 2023 season. This player has championship pedigree and has the ability to win any tournament he enters. You can find out who it is, and check out all of McClure's WM Phoenix Open one and done picks at SportsLine .

Who wins the the WM Phoenix Open 2024, and which golfers should you target for your PGA one and done picks this week? Visit SportsLine now to get Mike McClure's WM Phoenix Open 2024 one and done picks, all from the DFS pro who called Nick Taylor's epic win at the RBC Canadian Open and Rickie Fowler's win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2023 , and find out.

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2024 Masters Tournament odds, picks, Fantasy golf power rankings: PGA Tour predictions and best bets for this week's major from golf expert

The highlight of the golf season every year takes place in April as the Masters Tournament is among the most anticipated sporting events on the calendar. The motto "a tradition unlike any other" coined by CBS' Jim Nantz most certainly rings true for this event. A total of 88 players (plus a potential addition from the Valero Texas Open) will compete for a purse of $18 million, with the winner receiving $3.24 million, a famous green jacket, major exemptions, and a spot in The Masters for life. Augusta National plays as a par-72 at 7,555 yards with tree-lined fairways, uneven lies, and lightening fast greens.

World No. 1 and 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler is the pre-tournament favorite at +400 odds, followed defending champion Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1800), with Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka at +2000.

With the best field in golf teeing it up for 2024's first major tournament, who can you trust for your Masters Fantasy golf picks? Before you set your 2024 Masters golf lineups or make any PGA Tour bets, you NEED to see the Fantasy golf rankings from Fantasy expert Eric Cohen .

Cohen is an avid golf bettor who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner of the 2024 Players Championship (Scottie Scheffler +550), 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic (Rickie Fowler +1400), 2023 PGA Championship (Brooks Koepka +2000), 2023 Honda Classic (Chris Kirk +3500), 2022 Open Championship (Cameron Smith +2200), 2022 U.S. Open (Matt Fitzpatrick +2500), and 2022 Phoenix Open (Scottie Scheffler's first career victory at +2800). 

Eric is a contributor to SportsLine's YouTube shows including "Early Edge" and is the host of "The Early Wedge" golf show (live on Monday, 4/8 at 7:00 p.m. ET).  Anyone who has followed Cohen's predictions has made positive gains on their golf picks.

Now, Cohen has studied the field set to play at Augusta National and revealed his Masters Fantasy golf rankings. 

We can tell you he is backing Xander Schauffele at +1800 as his top outright bet. "He has top ten finishes in six of eight events this season and has gained off the tee and on approach in all but one tournament. In six appearances here, he has finishes of T2 (to Tiger Woods in 2019), T3, and T10."

On the other hand, Cohen is fading the co-second favorite Rory McIlroy at +1200 outside the top five. "McIlroy has finished in the top ten in seven of his last eight majors, but can't get over the hump at Augusta after blowing a massive lead in 2011. Looking to complete the career grand slam, it's almost like watching Phil Mickelson for years at the U.S. Open. So close, yet so far away."

Cohen also is backing several underdogs in his 2024 Masters Fantasy golf picks, including a HUGE 125-1 longshot who thrives at Augusta National ! If this player can pull off a stunning result, it would bring a HUGE payoff and be a valuable piece for Masters Fantasy golf lineups. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any fantasy golf picks.

Who wins The Masters Tournament ,  a nd which triple-digit longshot could bring a HUGE payout and be the difference for your Fantasy golf picks? Join SportsLine now to get Eric Cohen's Fantasy golf rankings and picks for The Masters, all from the Fantasy expert who has delivered a positive ROI with his golf picks !

GET VEGAS EXPERT PICKS FOR NFL, MLB, NBA, CBB, GOLF, NHL, HORSE RACING AND MORE - PLUS ADVANCED COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, WINNING TOOLS, AND MORE!

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THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

By cody williams | mar 12, 2024, 5:29 pm edt.

THE PLAYERS Championship is the flagship event on the PGA Tour and everything about the tournament backs that up. Whether you want to talk about the atmosphere around TPC Sawgrass, the iconic shots like on the 17th hole and the island green, or the stellar list of winners at this tournament, it all tracks as a can't-miss week in golf. But THE PLAYERS Championship picks can sometimes be a bit tricky.

Frankly, course history at TPC Sawgrass can be somewhat sporadic. Winners have finished outside the Top 50 immediately after, and vice versa. But what always stands out at THE PLAYERS Championship is the ball striking, smart and positional shot-making (especially off of the tee) and being deft around the greens. Of course, defending champion Scottie Scheffler, fresh off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational , is a heavy favorite, but the value is elsewhere.

We flirted with a quite good week at the API, but ultimately missed out with just one Top 20 best bet hitting. Things are getting in better shape, though, and we're going to try and clean up with our THE PLAYERS Championship expert picks and best bets for the week.

Note:  All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided .

Golf betting record in 2024 through API: 8-52-0, -9.63 Units (1-19 on outrights and longshots | -1.0 units at API) | One and Done Total for 2024: $1,517,962 (Jordan Spieth at API, $123,500)

PGA Tour expert picks for THE PLAYERS Championship: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the players championship: hideki matsuyama (+300).

Hideki Matsuyama is playing like one of the best in the world of late, including his late surge to win The Genesis. He's gaining 1.59 strokes tee-to-green over his last eight rounds -- a win and a Top 12 last week at the API -- but he's also gaining 1.28 strokes with his short game over those two finishes too. Matsuyama has also played well at THE PLAYERS, registering two Top 10 finishes in his last three completed tournaments while also being the first round leader in 2020 when the tournament was canceled thereafter. His form and history make me love these Top 10 odds.

Outright Winner pick for THE PLAYERS Championship (0.5 Units): Will Zalatoris (+3300)

Will Zalatoris is back and he's going to win this week, or at least that's my pick. Zalatoris has struggled a bit by his standards at THE PLAYERS with a best finish of T21 in three starts. In the last two signature events, though, he was T2 at The Genesis and T4 at API. He's gaining more than 1.70 strokes tee-to-green in his last 16 rounds, and has gained with the long putter in the bag now as well. He's playing like one of the best in the world and, with his driving accuracy also locked in right now, I love for him to show up again in a big-name field and this time get the victory.

One and Done pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Scottie Scheffler

There's no world wherein I feel good betting Scottie Scheffler at +550 to win this week. Those odds are just too short -- but they are deserved. With the biggest purse on the PGA Tour this week, we have to pull out a heavy-hitter for One and Done and Scheffler checks all the boxes from a ball striking aspect, but may have unlocked something more with the putter.

THE PLAYERS Championship picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Andrew novak to finish top 20 at the players championship (+500).

We've got to start putting some respect on Andrew Novak. At Phoenix, Mexico and the Cognizant, he went T8, T8 and T9. The guy is just playing great golf and the numbers back it up. He's gaining 1.23 strokes ball striking over his last 16 rounds and has also been positive around the green and with the putter too. He seems to be a great fit with accurate driving and strong approach play, even after missing the cut here a year ago. It's a bit of a longer-shot play, but his form says he's worth this look.

Keith Mitchell to finish Top 20 at THE PLAYERS Championship (+300)

Don't sleep on Cashmere Keith Mitchell this week. He's finished Top 20 in each of his last three starts and has a Top 20 in one of his last two starts at THE PLAYERS. Furthermore, his other finish was a decent-enough T35. Mitchell's ball striking has been stellar of late, gaining 1.87 strokes there over his last 12 rounds. His short game remains inconsistent, but it's been passable if not sub-average. Still, at a place that rewards shot-making and ball striking like TPC Sawgrass, Mitchell cracking the Top 20 seems very much in the realm of possibilities.

Tom Hoge to finish Top 20 at THE PLAYERS Championship (+260)

Our one bet that hit last week and we're running it back this time around. The putter remains the bugaboo for Tom Hoge, but the rest of his game has been right where you want it coming to TPC Sawgrass, a place where he's played extremely well. Hoge finished Top 3 at THE PLAYERS last year and hasn't finished worse than T33 in his last four starts here. He's gaining a ridiculous 1.46 strokes on approach over his last 16 rounds, in addition to driving the ball accurately. He's being undervalued, but I'm taking a swing on him this week.

Longshot Pick to win THE PLAYERS Championship (0.1 Units): Doug Ghim (+15000)

Doug Ghim missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last year, but was T6 the year prior. More importantly, though, his form has been excellent as of late, gaining 1.30 strokes with his ball striking to go along with 0.48 strokes gained with the putter. He also hasn't finished worse than T16 over his last four starts. I love his fit and the way he's playing, so 150/1 is looking tasty as a flier to take.

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