pga tour total driving

Mitchell heads 2023 PGA Tour 'Total Driving' stats with Mizuno ST-Z 230

Mitchell records best PGA driving ranking stats for 20 years

Mizuno’s Keith Mitchell has proven to be statistically the best driver on the PGA Tour – heading its official statistics for Total Driving across the 2023 season (upto and including the Tour Championship)..  Mitchell returned phenomenal statistics across the 47 PGA Tour events – with an average of 312.9 yards from the tee (13th spot) and 39th is accuracy – for a total score of 52.

Mitchell put a new ST-Z 230 driver in play for the 2023 season – before recording the best driving numbers compared to the PGA field for 20 years.  Mitchell’s ranking was last bettered in 2003 with a score of 51.

To put Keith’s 2023 driving statistics into context – the leader over the previous two seasons scored 61 and 80.   He’s just an incredible driver of the golf ball and found how to make the newest technology work for him.  Keith noticed years ago that with modern low spinning drivers he could hit a repeatable fade, without losing almost any distance. He’s created a template that a lot of younger players are now following.  This was Keith’s first season with the ST-Z 230 and its clearly worked out pretty well.  Anyone wondering whether Mizuno drivers stack up against the best in the industry only need to look at Keith’s numbers in 2023.

CHRIS VOSHALL /MIZUNO

Read full 2023 PGA Tour Stats

Mitchell’s ST-Z 230 head is fitted with Project X HZRDUS T1100 shaft and the Golf Pride victory full cord grip.  An increase in ball speed over 2023 is attributed to Mizuno’s CORTECH Chamber.

Mitchell rose to top of the 2023 driver rankings after switching to the ST-Z 230.

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Total Driving is the name of the game…

Published: 22 April 2020 Last updated: 22 April 2020

Once the US PGA Tour action resumes this season following the pandemic-caused layoff, fans’ eyes will naturally drift towards the players who can crush the ball off the tee.

It’s always been that way from when Sam Snead was the Tour’s longest driver of the ball, followed by big hitters like Jack Nicklaus, John Daly and today’s bashers such as Cameron Champ, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau.

But the ability to thump the ball miles is not the be-all-and-end-all and observers of the game would be wise to also watch where those drives land. The facts and stats prove that accuracy off the tee is joint as important as generating awesome power and distance.

Take Cameron Champ for example. He can really pound the ball – he’s known as one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour and validated that reputation by winning the Driving Distance category during the 2018-19 PGA Tour season. Champ’s measured drives last season averaged 317.9 yards (289.86 meters).

The previous two seasons, Rory McIlory was statistically the Tour’s longest driver of the golf ball. And in 2016, J.B. Holmes led the category.

While the trio’s prodigious tee shots wowed fans as they bombed one tee shot after another, their distance domination didn’t necessarily translate into FedExCup success. Champ finished 62nd in the final FedExCup standings, McIlroy was 58th in 2017 and 13th in 2018, and Holmes ended 30th in the final standings in 2016. In fact in the 13-year history of the FedExCup, the Driving Distance champion has never gone on to win the FedExCup.

Two years after turning pro, Champ burst on the scene in 2019, winning the Sanderson Farms Championship and followed that with a win at the Safeway Open late last year. His ascension to the Tour and his victories prove he’s more than just a tee box sideshow. As he’s made his way through the professional ranks, though, Champ has learned that accuracy along with blowing his ball past his competitors counts for something, too.

“I think for me accuracy-wise with the driver, has dramtically increased, which is good,” he said prior to winning his first victory, in Mississippi. “I also kind of create some shots that are my get-in-the-fairway drives. Once you get the rounds going and get comfortable, I kind of just let it go a little bit.” In other words, Champ has realised that sometimes it’s good to sacrifice a little distance if it means he can keep his ball on the short stuff…

Bringing the Driving Accuracy category into the equation helps shed light on the need for both accuracy and length relating to overall success. But, again, success in one area without the emulating in the other seems to be problematic: since 2007, only one Driving Accuracy leader has finished in the top 10 in the final FedExCup standings: Chez Reavie (8th in the FedEx Cup) last year.

McIlroy’s 2017 season is the perfect example. He led in Driving Distance for the first time, yet he was also wild off the tee, placing 161st in Driving Accuracy, giving him a Total Driving number of 162 (his combined positions in both categories), leaving him tied for 56th in the overall category alongside the modest but arrow-straight Zach Johnson.

McIlroy is acutely aware of his stats at any point during a particular year. In areas where he perceives he is struggling—and, let’s face it, as the No. 1 player in the world, there aren’t many weaknesses —he makes that aspect an important part of his practice routine.

He says: “I think a lot of the guys are starting to use ShotLink data to help with course management, but it’s also how you practice. So, I got a stats report last week after the three weeks I had at Torrey Pines, at Riviera, and Mexico, and that’s what I base my practice off going into the next few weeks,”

“It’s stuff that you sort of know anyway, but it’s nice when you have that objective data in front of you. So, I use it for a lot of different things. It’s very important.”

In 2018, Justin Rose won the FedEx Cup the same year he was the Total Driving champion. That season, Rose was 34th in Driving Distance and 33rd in Driving Accuracy, not great in either category but solid in both. In 2015, Sweden’s Henrik Stenson finished second in the FedExCup to Billy Horschel, while winning the Total Driving category (12th in Accuracy and 43rd in Distance).

Total Driving, where the ranking for players in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy are added together, shows how important play from the tee can be and can literally lay the foundations of a successful tournament and career.

Naturally there’s more to golfing success than that when you consider iron play, bunker play, the short game, putting and so on. But that’s for another day. It’s a good start and platform – even for the best players in the world – to build on…

PGA Championship 2023 leaderboard: Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland share 36-hole lead

116 New Updates

Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners and Viktor Hovland are 36-hole leaders at the PGA Championship.

Follow here for live updates, scores and analysis from The Athletic 's staff.

How to watch the PGA Championship

Saturday (third round): 8 a.m.-10 a.m. on ESPN+, 10 a.m-1 p.m. on ESPN, 1 p.m.-7 p.m. on CBS

Sunday (final round): 8 a.m.-10 a.m. on ESPN+, 10 a.m-1 p.m. on ESPN, 1 p.m.-7 p.m. on CBS

Leaderboard

T1. Scheffler -5 (68)

T1. Conners -5 (68)

T1. Hovland -5 (67)

T4. DeChambeau -3 (71)

T4. Suh -3 (68)

T6. Koepka -2 (66)

Required reading

• How Bryson DeChambeau’s weight change is helping him at the PGA Championship
• PGA Championship analysis: 10 notes to know on Eric Cole, Scottie Scheffler, more

(Photo: Warren Little / Getty Images)

Total driving

Our own Justin Ray pointed out in his preview piece that driving will be essential this week at Oak Hill. “Total driving,” a statistic that factors in a player’s average driving distance and his fairway hit percentage could be a great indicator and the top three on Tour are Keith Mitchell, Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler.

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Numbers don't lie

DataGolf.com published a really interesting data graphic this week displaying the strokes gained rating of all 112 major winners since 1995 entering the week of the tournament. Aside from your crazy stories like Michael Campbell (2005 U.S. Open) and Ben Curtis (‘03 Open Championship), 89 of the winners had a level of 1.0 strokes gained or more. And most of the ones below won the Open Championship. If we use this as a guide, Si Woo Kim at 1.0 is the cutoff, while guys like Adam Scott, Gary Woodland and Chris Kirk fall below.

The 'time to prove it' group

Which section of groups am I most interested to watch? The afternoon slot teeing off on No. 1 is essentially the "Time to prove it" group. Tony Finau and Max Homa are together. Xander Schauffele and Tyrell Hatton, followed by Patrick Cantlay and Rickie Fowler right after them. You can even throw in Sam Burns and Sungjae Im on No. 10. While those morning groups are essentially the major-winning superstars, this slate is full of the guys playing elite golf but lacking any memorable major performances. Most have never even been in the mix down the stretch, yet all of these golfers aside from Fowler are currently in the OWGR top 20. At least one of these guys will have a big week.

A weather advantage for one wave of golfers

The first groups tee off at Oak Hill at 7 a.m., when it’s expected to be 38 degrees in Rochester and only rise up to 52 degrees by 10 a.m. One would think that means a strong advantage for the later groups Thursday, considering the Friday morning projections are much more like 56 degrees at 7 a.m. So who are some of the big name pairings this could affect? All tee off by 8:33 a.m.

• Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Gary Woodland
• Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa
• Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Smith

Can Jordan Speith complete the career grand slam?

The only man that can complete the career grand slam this week is surrounded by uncertainty as the week begins. Jordan Spieth was forced to withdraw from last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson with an injury to his left wrist. Spieth did go through a full practice session and played nine holes Tuesday after arriving at Oak Hill, but his status for the PGA Championship is still in limbo.

There are five men who have completed the career grand slam in men’s professional golf. All five of them picked up their final leg of the slam in three or fewer attempts after getting the third. Should Spieth tee it up this week, this would be his seventh crack at the Wanamaker since winning the Claret Jug in the summer of 2017. Spieth’s best finish at the PGA was a runner-up to Jason Day in 2015 at Whistling Straits.

(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

Two underdogs ahead of the PGA Championship

Two more major-less names, both fully loaded with power and form, would surprise nobody with a breakthrough victory this week in New York. Tony Finau is playing the best golf of his career to date, fueled by an astronomical improvement in his approach play. Finau has gone from a very good iron player two seasons ago (28th on Tour in strokes gained approach) to an incredible one (second this season). Even after ranking 12th in the statistic last season, he’s managed to double the number of strokes he gains per round with his approach play – from 0.66 to 1.12.

As prevalent as he’s been on major leaderboards the last 12 months, it’s hard to believe that Cameron Young still hasn’t broken through for his first PGA Tour win. Young finished third at Southern Hills last year, second at St Andrews, and tied for seventh last month at Augusta National. The last American player to get his first PGA Tour win at a major? That was Micheel.

Who are the highest ranked players without a major?

The top of the ‘best player without a major win’ list is getting crowded. The highest player in the world ranking without a major is Patrick Cantlay (fourth), one of two players with top-15 finishes in each of the last three majors. Right behind him is Xander Schauffele (fifth), the only player with a top-15 in four straight majors. Viktor Hovland was 20-over-par in his first nine major starts as a pro – he’s 20-under in the last two. How about Tyrrell Hatton? He’s one of just six players to make the cut in the last five majors contested and seems to play his best golf in tough conditions.

Historically, the PGA Championship has been the major most likely to yield a first-time winner. Since 1960, 35 players have made the PGA their first major title, most of the four events. Oak Hill was the site of two of those wins – in 2003 (Shaun Micheel) and 2013 (Jason Dufner).

Justin Thomas looks to bounce back from slow start

When Justin Thomas came from seven shots back entering the final round to win last year’s PGA Championship at Southern Hills, it was the largest final-round deficit overcome to win a men’s major championship since Paul Lawrie at the 1999 Open (10 shots; see van de Velde, Jean). Since then, though, he hasn’t been very JT-ish. Thomas has a paltry two top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour so far in 2023. He’s currently 40th on the PGA Tour this season in scoring average – he hasn’t finished a season outside the top 10 in that statistic since 2016.

For Thomas to regain his major-winning form, improved approach play is the biggest factor. For his entire professional career, Thomas has been one of the best iron players in the world. This season, he’s down to 30th in strokes gained approach and outside the top 100 in greens in regulation (65.7 percent, 110th).

Rory McIlroy will look to finish the job in Oak Hill

Rory McIlroy is rapidly approaching nine years since his last major victory. Since the beginning of 2015, there are four players with a dozen or more top-10 finishes in majors. Koepka (16), Johnson (15) and Jordan Spieth (13) have combined to win nine majors in that span. McIlroy (17 top 10s, most of any player) has none.

After a season of elite putting resulted in a Tour Championship victory, McIlroy has been dismal on the greens so far in 2023. In strokes gained putting per round, he’s down from 16th to 172nd. A season ago, he ranked in the top 10 on Tour in distance of putts made per round – this year, he’s ranked 204th of 205 qualified players. Oak Hill would be a great place to rediscover last season’s putting magic.

The prognosis is certainly not all negative though for McIlroy. Even with his missed cut at Augusta last month, he has the best cumulative score to par in majors since the beginning of 2022 (24-under). He’s one of two players ranked in the top 20 on Tour this season in strokes gained off-the-tee, approach and around the green (Scheffler is the other). And not a single player in this week’s field has a longer average carry distance off the tee this season on Tour.

(Photo: Andrew Redington / Getty Images)

Don't count out Brooks Koepka

Entering last month’s Masters, one of the biggest pre-Tournament questions was whether players on the LIV Golf Tour would be adequately prepared for major championship play. That question was answered emphatically, with Brooks Koepka contending into Sunday afternoon and three of the top-six finishers on the board coming from the upstart circuit (Mickelson and Patrick Reed were the others). Now, two of their biggest stars enter the season’s second major coming off big performances: reigning Open champion Cameron Smith shot 61 Sunday in Tulsa to get into a playoff – one he lost to two-time major winner Dustin Johnson. Flo-Rida might have been blaring idly in the distance during the tournament’s climactic moments, but there were quality golf shots hit down the stretch.

In addition to the two men mentioned, it would be foolish to doubt the chances of Koepka this week. He is one of just five players in men’s golf history to win multiple majors in the state of New York (2018 U.S. Open, 2019 PGA). He leads all players in top-five finishes (12), score to par (-90) and birdies or better per round (4.07) in the majors since the beginning of the 2015 season. A concerning trend, though, might be final-round performance in majors: from 2015-18, he had a final-round scoring average in major championships of 68.9. Since 2019, that number is 72.0.

Age is nothing but a number

Two years ago, Phil Mickelson became the first man to win a major championship after the age of 50. The seven majors since have been an extreme market correction, with each winner being under the age of 30. That’s a particularly unique streak in the men’s game: it’s the first time since the inception of the Masters in 1934 that there have been seven consecutive major winners (as the majors are defined today) in their 20s.

In fact, the last time there were seven consecutive major winners under age 30 in men’s professional golf was from 1921 to 1923. Walter Hagen, Gene Sarazen and Bobby Jones were among the victors in that stretch. We have not seen eight straight winners under age 30 since the late 1800s.

PGA Championship 2023 best bets

The 2023 PGA Championship starts at Oak Hill Country Club in less than 24 hours. The last five PGA championships have been great tournaments, and hopefully this version brings us an entertaining ending. Oak Hill is shaping up to be a ball-striking course and the best golfers in the world should rise up the leaderboard by Sunday afternoon.

This week, we’ve already made our expert picks, John Hayes evaluated who to pick in a traditional office pool, Dennis Esser made his best bets to win the tournament and evaluated players from a Daily Fantasy point of view.

Read more here.

Round 1 delayed due to frost

Because of frost at Oak Hill (where it's currently 32 degrees), the start of Round 1 of the PGA Championship will be delayed.

The event Tweeted moments ago that practice facilities will open at 7:35 a.m., with the first tee times going off at 8:50 a.m.

That's an hour and 50 minutes behind schedule.

2023 PGA Championship sleepers, odds, expert picks

The 2023 PGA Championship will be held at the famed Oak Hill Country Club, located just outside of Rochester, NY. We will find the world’s best golfers tackling a beast of a golf course originally designed by Donald Ross and recently restored and remastered by Andrew Green in 2020. The restoration lengthened the golf course while removing trees and correcting greenside bunkering that needed to get their bite back.

The East Course at Oak Hill now measures more than 7,390 yards. The most interesting hole might end up being the Par 5 13th hole which measures 628 yards and has a creek that splits the fairway right where most of today’s big hitters land their drives.

With all of the changes, we really won’t get much help from looking back at the leaderboards at the 2003 and 2013 PGA Championships. Oak Hill was known as a ball strikers course where the likes of Lee Trevino, Jack Nicklaus, Curtis Strange, and Jason Dufner won major championships. Shaun Micheel and Chad Campbell had an epic shoot-out at the 2003 PGA Championship, where Micheel triumphed after perfectly striking his second shot to within inches of the hole on the 18th green. Micheel captured his first and only win on the PGA Tour with that amazing performance. I doubt this year’s winner will keep the streak alive of first-time winners as the course seems like a test of golf that will have the very best in the world at the forefront.

In a class of his own

Only one player on the PGA Tour is currently ranked inside the top 20 in strokes gained off-the-tee, approaching the green and putting: world number one and reigning Masters champ Jon Rahm. Some players excel on specific types of golf courses. Rahm’s preferred course type, especially in 2023, seems to be anywhere on Earth. Perennially on top of the Tour’s tee-to-green stats, Rahm has evolved into a lights-out putter this season, ranking seventh in strokes gained per round on the greens. That’s a far cry from just five years ago, when he was 147th in that metric.

Rahm leads all players in cumulative score to par (-56) and rounds in the 60s (34) in the majors since 2018. No qualified player has averaged fewer bogeys-or-worse per round in majors since 2020. Rahm will try to become the first player to win the first two majors of a season since Jordan Spieth won the Masters and U.S. Open in 2015.

Means Greens at Oak Hill

With demanding tee shots, high rough and some monstrously long holes, Oak Hill promises to be a demanding test of tee-to-green acumen. The greens players will take aim at this week are among the smallest players will face all year. The greenside bunkers are treacherous, and potential cool and wet morning conditions throw an additional wrench into the equation. Also, the greens will play at famed “championship speed.” Other than that, no stress, fellas – have fun out there!

The phrase “carry distance” (how far a player drives the ball through the air) has been thrown around plenty in the buildup to Thursday’s opening round and should be an important metric all week. Notable stars in that statistic this season on the PGA Tour include Rory McIlroy (ranked second), Cameron Young (third) and Sam Burns (eighth). “Total driving” is a statistic that factors in a player’s average driving distance and his fairway hit percentage. The top three on Tour in that stat are Keith Mitchell, Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler.

The first aesthetic difference fans will likely notice since the last major played here – the 2013 PGA – is how many trees have been removed from the property. Oak Hill’s restoration brings forward more features from the original Donald Ross design. The golf course will be a superstar this week.

Round 1 tee times

All times ET.

7 a.m.: Shaun Micheel, Braden Shattuck, Steven Alker

7:05 a.m.*: Trey Mullinax, Josh Speight, Kazuki Higa

7:11 a.m.: Ben Griffin, Chris French, Joel Dahmen

7:16 a.m.*: Adam Schenk, Colin Inglis, Thriston Lawrence

7:22 a.m.: Wyatt Worthington II, Nico Echavarria, Wyndham Clark

7:27 a.m.*: Min Woo Lee, Andrew Putnam, Emiliano Grillo

7:33 a.m.: Tom Hoge, Ryan Fox, K.H. Lee

7:38 a.m.*: Harold Varner III, Scott Stallings, Nicolai Højgaard

7:44 a.m.: Sam Stevens, Adam Svensson, Beau Hossmer

7:49 a.m.*: Steve Holmes, Adrian Otaegui, Davis Riley

7:55 a.m.: Zach Johnson, Kurt Kitayama, Sahith Theegala

8 a.m.*: Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland

8:06 a.m.: Corey Conners, Ockie Strydom, Joaquin Niemann

8:11 a.m.*: Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa

8:17 a.m.: Kevin Kisner, Jimmy Walker, Padraig Harrington

8:22 a.m.*: Shane Lowry, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland

8:28 a.m.: Alex Noren, J.T. Poston, Mackenzie Hughes

8:33 a.m.*: Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm

8:39 a.m.: Lee Hodges, Callum Tarren, David Lingmerth

8:44 a.m.*: Luke Donald, Adrian Meronk, Yannik Paul

8:50 a.m.: Taylor Moore, Denny McCarthy, Brendan Steele

8:55 a.m.*: Kenny Pigman, Davis Thompson, Maverick McNealy

9:01 a.m.: Jeremy Wells, Justin Suh, Adri Arnaus

9:06 a.m.*: Keegan Bradley, Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau

9:12 a.m.: Anthony Cordes, Mark Hubbard, Dean Burmester

9:17 a.m.*: Jesse Droemer, Matt NeSmith, Rikuya Hoshimo

12:25 p.m.*: Sam Ryder, Gabe Reynolds, Brandon Wu

12:30 p.m.: Matt Cahill, Taylor Montgomery, Cam Davis

12:36 p.m.*: Sadom Kaewkanjana, Ben Kern, Thorbjørn Olesen

12:41 p.m.: Michael Block, Hayden Buckley, Taylor Pendrith

12:47 p.m.*: Webb Simpson, Y.E. Yang, Danny Willett

12:52 p.m.: Alex Beach, Brendon Todd, Sihwan Kim

12:58 p.m.*: Sepp Straka, Harris English, Robert MacIntyre

1:03 p.m.: Patrick Reed, Rasmus Højgaard, Nick Taylor

1:09 p.m.*: Thomas Pieters, Keith Mitchell, Pablo Larrazabal

1:14 p.m.: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, John Somers, Chez Reavie

1:20 p.m.*: Lucas Herbert, Brian Harman, Callun Shinkwin

1:25 p.m.: Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama

1:31 p.m.*: Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Abraham Ancer

1:36 p.m.: Adam Scott, Max Homa, Tony Finau

1:42 p.m.*: Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Seamus Power

1:47 p.m.: Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson

1:53 p.m.*: Si Woo Kim, Stephan Jaeger, Anirban Lahiri

1:58 p.m.: Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson

2:04 p.m.*: Victor Perez, Aaron Wise, Jordan Smith

2:09 p.m.: Alex Smalley, Russell Henley, Mito Pereira

2:15 p.m.*: Chris Sanger, J.J. Spaun, David Micheluzzi

2:20 p.m.: Adam Hadwin, Matt Kuchar, Talor Gooch

2:26 p.m.*: Thomas Detry, J.J. Killeen, Matt Wallace

2:31 p.m.: Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, Francesco Molinari

2:37 p.m.*: Nick Hardy, Greg Koch, Eric Cole

2:42 p.m.: Russell Grove, Patrick Rodgers, Ben Taylor

(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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The golf stats that matter most on the PGA Tour

Consider, for a moment, Denny McCarthy. In the 2019-20 season, he was the strokes gained/putting champion of the PGA Tour , and almost became just the second person (after Jason Day) to average an entire stroke gained over the field per round. It was his second straight mythical putting title, and it’s not even a little hyperbolic to call him one of the greatest putters on Earth. That said, if you know anything about Denny McCarthy, you know he’s not one of the greatest players on Earth. In the two seasons when he led the PGA Tour in putting, he finished 111th and 73rd in the FedEx Cup standings and only managed six top-10s in 51 tournaments. There’s no doubt that he’s very good, but there’s also no doubt that in this case, his brilliant putting didn’t translate to superlative results.

Golf, like many sports, is fertile ground for folk wisdom. If you’ve spent time around a course, you’ve heard the expression “drive for show, putt for dough.” McCarthy’s case would cast some doubt on this formulation, but of course the 27-year-old is just one person and it would be a mistake to draw any statistical conclusions from the smallest possible sample size. Right or wrong, though, the “putt for dough” idea is attempting to answer a question of critical importance for players: Which skill matters the most? Which specific aspect of golf has the greatest correlation to sustained success? And which elements are less important than we think?

To search for the answer, I reached out to Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and a Golf Digest contributor. There are a few brilliant numbers guys in golf, and he’s one of them. As expected, he took the concept and blew it out of the water. In his words:

I’ve attached a sheet that looks at the 130 official PGA Tour stats and compares them for the 2020 season FedEx Cup Regular Season Points. With only one year, and a shortened one at that, there’s going to be more randomness than usual BUT I think the list certainly passes the eye test.

Gehman’s method was what he called a “straightforward regression model,” in which two variables are compared to each other using 129 qualifying players. The steady variable is FedEx Cup points accrued by a player during the regular season, which was our metric for success (you could argue that total strokes-gained average is better, but I wanted to go by the PGA Tour’s own standard, albeit before the points blow up in the playoffs and skew the results). The second variable is the other 130 stats, with a ranking value assigned to each based on a player’s finish in the year-end standings. By finding out which ones have the closest correlation to each other, you can see which statistics might predict success.

In simpler words, this shows us what the best players did the best.

RELATED: The top 100 PGA Tour pros in 2021, ranked

Let me echo Gehman’s caution up top: With only an abbreviated season’s worth of data, there is bound to be some statistical noise, and to draw definite conclusions of any kind, you’d need to look at a years-long study.

With that said, the list can be found here . The higher the number, the more closely correlated the result is with FedEx Cup success. A few observations:

• As a quality control test, it’s good to see that “official money” and “Official World Golf Ranking” are the top two. Clearly, if these didn’t correlate with our concept of success, something would be seriously wrong.

• Of the comprehensive strokes-gained numbers, SG/approach the green is the most “important” to overall success. It’s the top stat after money and World Ranking, and it’s even above SG/total, which comes in fourth. That last fact is the least intuitive of the results and probably deserves closer inspection.

RELATED: What the sophisticated golf fan should be looking for in 2021

• The top six are: SG/approach the green, SG/off-the-tee, scoring average, SG/total, SG/around the green, and SG/tee-to-green. Again, this all stands to reason and functions as good quality control.

The saying "putt for dough" on the PGA Tour hasn't held up the last two seasons, as Denny McCarthy led both times in strokes gained/putting but finishing 111th and 76th on the FedEx Cup points list, respectively.

Gregory Shamus

• But you might have noticed something missing … where’s putting? Incredibly, SG/putting ranks 64th on the list, exactly at the halfway mark. It’s hard not to think of that number in relation to McCarthy, and while the warning above still has to be observed, it definitely raises some questions about the relative value of putting.

• Looking at the top of the list, there are a lot of stats like “birdie average” and “scoring average” that you’d expect. But when you start getting into highly specific stats, like driving distance and “approaches from > 200 yards” you see the putting categories appear only after several tee-to-green stats.

RELATED: 10 players who will make you money betting on them in 2021

• In particular, long approaches seem to be of some importance. Approaches from longer than 175 yards seem more correlated with success than anything on the green. Greens in regulation is hugely critical, coming in 16th.

• Scrambling matters, too. Not only is SG/around the green fifth overall, but scrambling itself (31st), sand-save percentage (35th), scrambling from the rough (44th) and scrambling from 10-20 yards (49th) are all relatively high.

• Interestingly, “consecutive cuts” finished dead last, one of only two stats with a negative correlation value. Clearly, in a system like the FedEx Cup where points are top heavy, consistency without at least sporadic excellence is a dubious merit.

• In the “Bryson was right” department, driving distance average (28th) is more closely correlated with success than driving-accuracy percentage (52nd).

• If you’re looking for a magic secret stat that perfectly predicts success, you’ll be disappointed. Personally, I was hoping that we’d somehow find out that all the best players were wizards from the left rough between 150-175 yards. Alas …

RELATED: 7 sleepers you need to watch in 2021

After reading Gehman’s list, I wanted to try one more approach that looked only at the top 30 players on tour from last season. It’s less scientific, but I thought it might be worthwhile. Luis Rivera at the PGA Tour helped immensely by providing me with a spreadsheet of the overall ranking in all the major strokes-gained categories from the top 30 in the 2020 FEC rankings. With these numbers, it was possible to do a quick and dirty check for success correlation.

A clutch putt from Mackenzie Hughes, something his stats show he's prone to do, at the BMW Championship earned him the last spot into the 2020 Tour Championship.

Stacy Revere

With fewer players, there will be outliers, and the data will necessarily be less precise. As an example, we can look at Mackenzie Hughes, who missed nine of his first 11 cuts, then made it all the way to the Tour Championship by virtue of catching fire late. He’s in the McCarthy vein, having finished eighth in putting but worse than 140th in the other major categories. Meanwhile, Hideki Matsuyama goes the other way, cleaning up from off the green but finishing a sad 170th in putting.

Here were the average season-ending rankings for each category among this group of 30:

SG/total : 29.7 SG:/tee-to-green : 41.47 SG/approach : 52.97 SG/off-the-tee : 53.67 SG/putting : 65.73 SG/around the green : 71.9

The similarity here is that putting is relatively low, and the biggest difference comes with “around the green,” which looks a lot less significant here. (Also, fans of strokes gained will be relieved to know that SG/total is No. 1 here, as you’d expect it to be.) Again, Gehman’s method is the more sophisticated metric, and should take precedence, but it’s interesting to see what changes and what doesn’t with a slightly different method.

The broad conclusion is that when you look at 2020, tee-to-green golf seems to be a more useful skill than putting. In the real world, a great player needs both, but we may want to get ahead of the curve and tweak that famous expression: Putt for show, do everything else for dough.

A New Method for Ranking Total Driving Performance on the PGA Tour

The Professional Golf Association Tour (PGA Tour) currently ranks its players according to their overall Total Driving performance by adding together individual ranks for their average driving distance and for their driving accuracy percentage. However, this widely used and reported measure is inappropriate because it is based upon the addition of two ordinal-scaled measures in which the underlying differences between successive ranks are not equal. In this paper, we propose a new method for ranking golfers in terms of their overall driving performance. The method eliminates the drawbacks of previously reported measures, including the one used by the PGA Tour. Using the new methodology, we re-rank all PGA Tour golfers for the 2005 season and compare these ranks to the “official” ranks reported by the PGA Tour. In some cases, large differences in players’ rankings existed. The reasons for these differences are then discussed.

Introduction

In recent years, numerous statistical analyses have been conducted in an attempt to assess the relative importance of various shot-making skills on overall performance on the PGA Tour and among amateur golfers (Shmanske, 2000; Dorsel and Rotunda, 2001; Engelhardt, 1997 and 2002; Callan and Thomas, 2004 and 2006; and Wiseman and Chatterjee, 2006). While most of the measures that have been used in these analyses have been well-defined and widely accepted, there is one performance statistic, “Total Driving,” that has not been well-defined. This particular statistic, which combines a golfer’s (i) average driving distance and his/her (ii) driving accuracy percentage, has been operationally defined in numerous ways, but no methodologically sound measure has emerged to date. This includes the measure now being used by the PGA Tour.

In this paper, the authors propose a new statistical measure based upon standardized z-scores for ranking golfers according to Total Driving performance. This new measure eliminates the methodological drawbacks of previously developed measures by re-ranking PGA Tour golfers on their Total Driving performance during the 2005 season and comparing these rankings to the “official” PGA Tour rankings for that season.

The evolving nature of the relationship that has existed between driving distance and driving accuracy on the PGA Tour over the last sixteen years (1990-2005) was examined. Then, alternative ranking methods that have been proposed and the necessity of and the rationale for a new composite measure of Total Driving performance were discussed. Following this, the new measure can be applied to the 2005 PGA Tour season. These new rankings dramatically alter the previous ranking of many golfers on the tour. The reasons for the differences in rankings will be explored.

Distance and Accuracy on the PGA Tour: 1990-2005

The average driving distances and the driving accuracy percentages have changed significantly since 1990, with the largest changes taking place in recent years. This is shown in Table 1. The average driving distances have increased every year since 1993 and these increases have been relatively steady on a year-by-year basis, except in 2001 and 2003, when the increases were significantly higher. We surmise that technological improvements in golf balls and equipment are likely to have played a part in these two years.

A similar trend did not exist for the driving accuracy percentage. Here, the accuracy percentage steadily increased from 1990 to 1995, and then remained relatively stable over the next six-year period, only to decline dramatically in the last few years. This dramatic decline occurred at the same time that the average driving distance substantially increased. In fact, during the 2005 PGA Tour season, the average driving distance was at its sixteen year high of 288.6 yards and the driving accuracy percentage was at its sixteen year low at 62.8%.

The negative relationship between a golfer’s average driving distance and driving accuracy percentage increased in strength over this sixteen year period. As indicated in Table 1, the strength of the relationship has grown in recent years and it reached its highest level in 2005, when the correlation between the two measures was -.679.

Current Measures of Total Driving Performance

Ranking golfers on each of the two driving measures presents no problems. Driving distance is simply defined as the average number of yards per measured drive. For each golfer, these drives are measured on two holes per round. Driving accuracy is the percentage of all drives that come to rest in the fairway. However, the PGA Tour and others (for example, Engelhardt, 1997) have indicated the need for a single measure that takes into account both the driving accuracy percentage and the average driving distance. Numerous researchers have attempted to obtain such a measure; unfortunately all of the measures that have been proposed have had methodological flaws associated with them.

The most widely used measure is the one used by the PGA Tour. It is obtained by adding together the individual ranks of a golfer on each of the two measures and then obtaining a final overall ranking based upon the total score. That is, for example, a golfer who was ranked 32nd in driving distance and 42nd in driving accuracy percentage would have a total score of 32+42=74. The PGA Tour would rank such a golfer higher than another golfer who ranked, for example, 25th in average driving distance and 60th in driving accuracy percentage, since the former summated score of 74 is lower than the latter summated score of 85.

Such an approach is flawed despite its widespread use and acceptance. The major flaw is that the level of measurement of each of these two rankings (driving distance and driving accuracy) is at the ordinal level and, as such, it does not take into account the underlying differences in distances or in driving accuracy percentages. Stated differently, while the differences in successive ranks remain the same, the corresponding differences in distance and accuracy are not equal. Thus, it is not possible to add the distance and accuracy ranks directly, without loss or distortion of the underlying information.

Davidson and Templin (1986) suggested a somewhat different approach. They proposed a measure which first divided all PGA Tour players into three groups based upon their average driving distance. They then made a similar classification based upon the driving accuracy percentage. The three groups were coded as 1 (top one-third), 2 (middle one-third), and 3 (bottom one-third). To arrive at a measure of Total Driving performance, the researchers multiplied the individual coded scores of each golfer. The larger the score, which ranged from 1 to 9, the better the performance. The authors used this new measure in a multiple regression analysis in an attempt to isolate the effects of driving on overall scoring performance.

This measure was questioned by Belkin et al. (1994) because no evidence was provided to support the construct validity of the measure and because of the multiplication of the individual codes at the ordinal level of measurement.

More recently, Wiseman and Chatterjee (2006) proposed a multiplicative measure of Total Driving which ranked golfers according to the product of their average driving distances and their driving accuracy percentages. Essentially, this measure reduced golfers’ average driving distances by the proportion of times their drives did not land on the fairway. Thus, a golfer who had an average driving distance of 300 yards and an accuracy percentage of 60% would be ranked lower than another golfer who had an average driving distance of 280 yards and an accuracy percentage of 70%, since 300(.60) =180 < 280(.70)=196. This measure was found to be highly correlated with the PGA Tour measure, but subsequent analyses revealed that it was also flawed because it gave far greater weight to driving accuracy than it did to driving distance. However, unlike the two previously discussed measures, it was operationally sound in that it was appropriate to multiply the two quantities together.

In summary, different measures for Total Driving performance that have been used are all flawed, and it is difficult to justify any of them as an appropriate measure. In the next section of this paper, a new method for ranking golfers that have none of the drawbacks of the previously discussed measures will be explained.

A New Measure for Ranking Total Driving Performance

Both average driving distance and the driving accuracy percentage are ratio-scaled data. To combine these two measures into a single overall measure of Total Driving performance, the measure we propose is based upon two statistically independent standardized z-scores, one for driving distance, and the other for driving accuracy given driving distance.

In proposing such a measure, if the distance and accuracy measures are statistically independent and they are viewed as being of equal importance in driving performance, then it would be reasonable to compute the standardized z-score of each measure, and then to add these z-scores to arrive at an overall score. However, this approach does not seem reasonable in the present situation because (i) there is a strong negative correlation between driving distance and driving accuracy, and (ii) driving distance is the primary factor in determining accuracy, rather than the other way around (driving distance is primarily a function of a player’s physical strength and athletic ability). With this reasoning, we propose the following as a composite score of Total Driving:

Z sum = Z DD + Z DA|DD

Z DD = Standardized z-score of driving distance, and

Z DA|DD = Standardized z-score of driving accuracy given driving distance.

To compute Z DD for a player, we subtract the average driving distance for all players, µ DD , from the given player’s average driving distance, DD, and divide the result by the standard deviation of average driving distances, σ DD . This is expressed as:

Computation of Z DA|DD is a somewhat more involved procedure. We need to determine the mean or expected accuracy percentage of all golfers who drove the ball a specified average distance, DD, as well as the standard deviation of the driving accuracy percentages given the specified average distance, DD. The formulas for these are:

µ DA|DD = ρσ DA ((DD-µ DD )/σ DD ), and σ DA|DD = √((1-ρ 2 )σ DA 2

where ρ is the correlation coefficient between distance and accuracy. The conditional standardized z-score of driving accuracy given driving distance is then computed using the following formula:

Z DA|DD = (DA – µ DA|DD ) / √((1-ρ 2 )σ DA 2 .

Statistical theory about bivariate normal distributions tells us that z-scores for distance and accuracy, Z DD and Z DA|DD , both have a mean of 0.0 and a standard deviation of 1.0. Further, the conditional z-score for accuracy given distance, Z DA|DD , is statistically independent of the z-score for driving distance, Z DD .

Because the two standardized z-score measures are statistically independent, and because Z DA|DD is an indicator of accuracy after taking distance into account, they can be added together to obtain an overall summated z-score for overall driving performance. The higher the overall value of Z sum = Z DD + Z DA|DD , the better the overall performance.

The authors will discuss in greater detail the application of this approach for ranking golfers based upon their Total Driving performance in the 2005 PGA Tour season.

Application to the 2005 PGA Tour Season

In 2005, there were 202 golfers on the PGA Tour. Detailed statistical data for these players can be found on the PGA Tour’s website ( www.pgatour.com ). Anderson Darling’s (AD) test was used to determine if driving distance has a normal distribution. With this test, we reject the null hypothesis that the data came from a normal distribution if the AD statistic is very large, or equivalently, if the p-value is smaller than a chosen level of significance (usually 0.05 or 5% level of significance). Our data show that the AD statistic was 0.367, which is small, and the p-value is 0.429, which is larger than the 5% level of significance. Therefore, we do not reject the hypothesis that the data came from a normal distribution.

Similarly, we used the AD statistic to test whether the driving accuracy percentage variable was Normally distributed. The AD test produced a test statistic of 0.350 with a p-value of 0.471. As a result, we do not reject the hypothesis that the driving accuracy percentages are Normally distributed. Given these results, we concluded that the joint distribution of driving accuracy and driving distance can be represented by a bivariate Normal distribution, with a correlation coefficient of ρ = -.679 between the two variables.

Next, the authors computed the values of Z sum as the Total Driving scores, and ranked these values in descending order. The scores for the top forty players in the resulting ordering, together with the corresponding PGA Tour ranks, are shown in Table 2.

As it is seen in Table 2, Tiger Woods was the number one ranked golfer in terms of Total Driving under the proposed method, which stands in sharp contrast to his rank of 83 rd in the PGA Tour rankings. In terms of average driving distance, Woods was ranked 2 nd in 2005 among 202 Tour players with an average driving distance of DD = 316.1 yards. The top ranked player was Scott Hend, who had an average driving distance of 318.9 yards. Woods’ average driving accuracy percentage of DA = 54.6% gave him a PGA Tour ranking of 188 th on this measure. The top ranked player was Jeff Hart with a driving accuracy percentage of 76.0%. Woods’ two ranks of 2 nd and 188 th led to his overall ranking of 83 rd for Total Driving based upon the PGA Tour method.

To illustrate the computation of Z DD , Z DA|DD , and Z sum for Tiger Woods, in 2005, the average driving distance among all players was 288.6 yards with a standard deviation of 9.32 yards. The average for the driving accuracy percentage was 62.8% with a standard deviation of 5.32%. As noted previously, the correlation between driving accuracy and driving distance was -.679. Then, the standardized driving distance z-score for Tiger Woods is:

Z DD = (316.1 – 288.6) / 9.32 = 2.95.

The conditional mean driving accuracy percentage given the average driving distance of 316.1 yards is:

µ DA|DD = 62.8% + (-.679)(5.32%)(2.95) = 52.1%.

That is, Tiger Woods or any golfer who has an average driving distance of 316.1 yards would be expected to have a driving accuracy percentage of 52.1%. Since Woods’ actual driving accuracy percentage for 2005 was 54.6%, his conditional z-score would be equal to:

Z DA|DD = (54.6 – 52.1) / √((1-(-.679) 2 )(5.32) 2 ) = .63

By adding the two z-scores for Tiger Woods, an overall Z sum score of 3.58 is obtained, which is the highest of any of the PGA Tour players in 2005.

The rationale for Woods’ jump in the rankings can be seen by a closer examination of the z-scores. His average driving distance of 316.2 yards far outdistanced all other golfers (except one). His z-score value of 2.95 reflects this large differentiation, whereas previously his ranking of 2 nd did not because it assumed that the distances between ranks were equal when they were not. Further, his conditional z-score for driving accuracy is now positive where before it was negative. The reason for this is because his relatively low driving accuracy percentage of 54.6% did not reflect at all how far Woods drove the ball. Actually, for those who drive the ball this far, a driving accuracy percentage approximately two percentage points lower could be expected. These two factors taken together accounted for his top ranking.

The Spearman rank correlation between the PGA Tour rankings and the new rankings was computed to be r s = .90 (p < .001). This shows that there was a large degree of similarity between the two rankings. On the other hand, and as illustrated by the case of Tiger Woods, there were also dramatic differences in some cases. To get a better feel for the differences, consider the scatterplot of the rankings under the two methods, which is shown in Figure 1. It is seen that the rankings under the two methods are generally similar, particularly in the middle range of rankings, but discernibly less so near the top or the bottom ranges. Divergence of the rankings at the extremes in this way emphasizes the effect of the ranking method on the results, which in turn brings the virtues and flaws of the ranking methods into focus.

Golfers whose rank improved included V. J. Singh, from 38 th to 13 th , Davis Love III, from 59 th to 11 th , and Brett Wetterich, from 73 rd to 4 th . Those going in the opposite direction included Marc Calcavecchia, from 21 st to 45 th , Jonathan Kaye, from 23 rd to 44 th , and Justin Rose, from 13 th to 33 rd . Typically, the reason for a golfer improving rank is because one of the measures was quite good and the standardized z-scores now reflect this, while the previous ranking system did not. For those golfers falling in rank, their old ranks tended to be clustered around many other golfers and their actual differences in rank did not reflect this closeness. For example, Justin Rose had a driving accuracy percentage of 63.7%, which gave him a ranking of 81 st among all golfers on this measure. However, fellow competitor Marc Hensby had a driving accuracy percentage of 62.7%, just one percentage point less, yet Hensby’s rank of 102 nd was 21 ranks below that of the rank given to Justin Rose.

The proposed method for ranking golfers according to their Total Driving skill takes into account the magnitude of the differences that exist between players on each of the two driving dimensions. The current PGA Tour method does not. The proposed method also takes into account the strong negative relationship that exists between driving accuracy and driving distance. This negative relationship is reflected in the new conditional standardized z-score. As a result, this new method gives a better overall reflection of the true Total Driving performance of PGA Tour golfers than does the current ranking system. Computationally, the proposed method is slightly more involved than other existing methods, but this is not a significant factor today.

It should be noted that this methodology can be applied in other areas in which an overall ranking is desired based on two correlated factors, which have different units of measurement and thus need to be combined in some way to provide an overall ranking.

Belkin, D.S., Gansneder, B., Pickens, M., Rotella, R. J., & Striegel, D. (1994) “Predictability and stability of Professional Golf Association tour statistics.” Perceptual and Motor Skills, 78, 1275-1280.

Callan, S. J. & Thomas, J. M. (2004) “Determinants of success among amateur golfers: An examination of NCAA Division I male golfers.” The Sports Journal 7, 3 at http://www.thesportjournal.org/2004Journal/Vol7-No3/CallanThomas.asp.

Callan, S. J. & Thomas, J. M. (2006) “Gender, skill and performance in amateur golf: An examination of NCAA Division I golfers.” The Sports Journal 8, 2 at http://www.thesportjournal.org/2006Journal/Vol9-No3/Callan.asp.

Dorsel, T.N., & Rotunda, R. J. (2001) “Low scores, Top 10 finishes and big money: An analysis of Professional Golf Association Tour statistics and how these relate to overall performance.” Perceptual and Motor Skills, 92, 575-585.

Engelhardt, G. M. (1997) “Differences in shot-making skills among high and low money winners on the PGA Tour.” Perceptual and Motor Skills, 84, 1314.

Engelhardt, G. M. (2002) “Driving distance and driving accuracy equals total driving:Reply to Dorsel and Rotunda.” Perceptual and Motor Skills 95, 423-424.

Shmanske, S. (2000) “Gender, skill and earnings in Professional Golf.” Journal of Sports Economics 1(4), 385-400.

Wiseman, F. and Chatterjee, S. (2006) “A comprehensive analysis of golf performance on the PGA Tour: 1990-2004.” Perceptual and Motor Skills, 102, 109-117.

TABLE 1 Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy: 1990-2005

Table 2 Revised 2005 PGA Tour Rankings for Total Driving (Top 40 players)

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How Far Do PGA Tour Pros Hit The Ball?

Whether you like it or not, distance is always talked about. But how far do PGA Tour pros hit the ball? Let's find out

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Distance is a hotly debated subject and not just in the clubhouse at your local municipal. So much so, earlier this year, the United States Golf Association (USGA) and R&A sent an official notice to equipment manufacturers, detailing new areas of interest in the distance debate.

The notice did not include any official changes to the Rules of Golf but it did give a glimpse into the future and just how they intend to stop the ever increasing trend of further drives and lengthening of golf courses.

As the general consensus is that PGA Tour pros hit the ball too far, do you know how far they actually hit it? Well, let's take a look.

The PGA Tour collates this information under the Driving Distance category. The average number of yards per measured drive is recorded on two holes per round. The PGA Tour accounts for possible variance, such as elevation and wind, and take care to counteract this effect in the chosen holes. The drives are measured at the point in which the ball come to rest regardless of whether it is in the fairway or not.

Cameron Champ leads the 2022 Driving Distance category with a whopping average of 326.1 yards. The American maintains a rather comfortable lead with Matt Wolff some 5.4 yards behind - averaging 320.7 yards off the tee.

The 5.4 yard difference between Champ and Wolff separates Wolff and Luke List; who is twelfth in the Driving Distance category - averaging 315.4. 

The PGA Tour average driving distance is 298.4 yards; which is enough to rank 106th in the category. Notable players that fall beneath Tour average are Matt Fitzpatrick, who came agonisingly close to his first Major at the PGA Championship, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger.

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What Is The Longest Drive Ever Hit On The PGA Tour?

Unfortunately, this isn't as easy to answer as you might think.

The PGA Tour introduced ShotLink in a limited capacity in 2000. Since 2003, they have used the laser-based system to gain precise measurements on every hole - something which was not possible before.

Prior to 2003 and the expanded use of ShotLink, Tiger Woods hit a 498-yard drive on the 18th hole at the Plantation Course at Kapalua during the 2002 Mercedes Championship. Sadly for Woods, this is classed as an 'unofficial record.'

David Love III takes the spoils in the post-2003 era having driven one 476-yards on the exact same hole as Woods during the 2004 edition of the Mercedes Championship. Those familiar with the event will be aware of the cambering fairway that can be used to the players advantage. 

Perhaps the most impressive drive recorded was by Jeff Sluman, who, at 5 foot 8 inches tall, put one out there 473-yards at the PGA West course during the 2003 Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. Pound for pound, that is an extremely long drive. 

Driving Distance Analysis Through The Years

• The 2022 leading average driving distance is the longest in the last ten years
• The 2022 tour average driving distance is the longest in the last ten years 
• The difference between the longest and tour average was the biggest in 2015 (28 yards)
• The difference between the longest and tour average was the second biggest in 2022 (so far - 27.7 yards)
• The average driving distance has increased 11.2 yards in the last ten years

Driving Distance Leaders Through The Years

In 2003, Hank Kuehne averaged a staggering 321.4 yards off the tee. Only Bryson DeChambeau (2020 & 2021) has bettered that total across a full PGA Tour season.

James joined Golf Monthly having previously written for other digital outlets. He is obsessed with all areas of the game – from tournament golf, to history, equipment, technique and travel. He is also an avid collector of memorabilia; with items from the likes of Bobby Jones, Tiger Woods, Francis Ouimet, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Adam Scott and Ernie Els. As well as writing for Golf Monthly, James’ golfing highlight is fist bumping Phil Mickelson on his way to winning the Open Championship at Muirfield in 2013. James grew up on the east coast of England and is the third generation of his golfing family. He now resides in Leeds and is a member of Cobble Hall Golf Club with a handicap index of 1.7. His favourite films are The Legend of Bagger Vance and Tin Cup.

A tradition which began at the tournament's previous home could continue this year - if the champion is feeling brave enough...

By Jonny Leighfield Published 17 April 24

New Balance produce some extremely stylish footwear and, in this review, Matt Cradock takes their spikeless 997 SL onto the course

By Matt Cradock Published 17 April 24

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2024 RBC Heritage odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that's nailed 11 majors

Sportsline's proven model simulated the rbc heritage 2024 10,000 times and revealed its pga golf picks.

Most of golf's top players aren't taking a week off after the Masters as the 2024 RBC Heritage has a stacked field. Nine of the top 10 in World Ranking are set to tee off when the event begins on Thursday from Hilton Head, S.C. That includes World No. 1 and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler, who has three wins and a runner-up over his last four overall tournaments. Also teeing off at the RBC Heritage 2024 are World No. 2 Wyndham Clark, No. 3 Xander Schauffele and No. 4 Ludvig Aberg.

Scheffler is the 18-5 favorite, according to the latest 2024 RBC Heritage odds, making him the only golfer with single-digit odds. With three straight top 10s, Schauffele is at 10-1, while Rory McIlroy is at 11-1, despite a disappointing 22nd-place finish at Augusta. Jordan Spieth, who won at Hilton Head in 2022 and was runner-up last year, is a 30-1 longshot. Before locking in your 2024 RBC Heritage picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the RBC Heritage 2024 field is finalized, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

Top 2024 RBC Heritage predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 RBC Heritage: Schauffele, a seven-time winner on the PGA Tour and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. Schauffele has been red-hot in recent weeks, finishing inside the top 10 in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. He's coming off an eighth-place finish at the Masters and secured a runner-up showing at The Players Championship in March.

However, Schauffele has struggled with his putting this season and hasn't won a PGA Tour event since 2022. The 30-year-old enters this week's event ranked 59th in putts per round (28.68), 79th in strokes gained: putting (0.117) and 80th in one-putt percentage (40.14%). Harbour Town places a premium on putting, which doesn't bode well for Schauffele's chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. 

Another surprise: Matt Fitzpatrick, a 22-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Perhaps not even Scheffler will enter this tournament with as much confidence as Fitzpatrick, considering the Englishman was victorious here last year. He defeated Spieth in a playoff for the win after finishing in fourth place at the 2021 RBC Heritage. Fitzpatrick has since added a European Tour victory and has five top 5s across all starts since his RBC win last year.

Fitzpatrick vacationed in Hilton Head as a kid and calls it his favorite course after Augusta, so both his success and fondness of the course can't be discounted. He also has the metrics to back up him being used in 2024 RBC Heritage bets as he ranks in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in both total driving and putting average. He also boasts top 30 rankings in both birdie average and in driving accuracy percentage, with the latter historically being a great omen for success at this course. Few can surpass Fitzpatrick when it comes to current form and course history, so he'd be a steal considering there are seven golfers with shorter RBC Heritage 2024 odds.  See who else to pick here . 

How to make 2024 RBC Heritage picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 RBC Heritage, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the RBC Heritage 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected RBC Heritage leaderboard , all from the model that's nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.

2024 RBC Heritage odds, field

Get full 2024 RBC Heritage picks, best bets, and predictions here .

Scottie Scheffler +360 Xander Schauffele +1000 Rory McIlroy +1100 Ludvig Åberg +1200 Patrick Cantlay +1600 Collin Morikawa +1800 Tommy Fleetwood +2000 Max Homa +2200 Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 Will Zalatoris +2500 Wyndham Clark +2800 Jordan Spieth +3000 Cameron Young +3000 Justin Thomas +3500 Sahith Theegala +4000 Si Woo Kim +4000 Sam Burns +4000 Tony Finau +4500 Brian Harman +4500 Corey Conners +5000 Russell Henley +5500 Jason Day +5500 Tom Kim +6000 Shane Lowry +6000 Cam Davis +6500 Byeong Hun An +7000 Chris Kirk +7000 Akshay Bhatia +7000 J.T. Poston +7000 Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7500 Sungjae Im +7500 Harris English +7500 Taylor Moore +8000 Denny McCarthy +8000 Sepp Straka +8000 Tom Hoge +9000 Stephan Jaeger +9000 Eric Cole +10000 Matthieu Pavon +10000 Keegan Bradley +10000 Justin Rose +11000 Adam Hadwin +11000 Kurt Kitayama +11000 Rickie Fowler +11000 Emiliano Grillo +11000 Adam Schenk +11000 Brendon Todd +12000 Thomas Detry +12000 Erik van Rooyen +12000 Lucas Glover +12000 Jake Knapp +15000 Nick Taylor +15000 Mackenzie Hughes +17000 Andrew Putnam +20000 Nick Dunlap +20000 Austin Eckroat +20000

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RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina • USA

Apr 18 - 21, 2024