Analysis: Russians Likely to Encounter Growing Guerrilla Warfare in Ukraine

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Russians Likely to Encounter Growing Guerrilla Warfare in Ukraine

Kyiv says it plans to launch a coordinated campaign., russia’s war in ukraine.

Understanding the conflict two years on .

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If it’s not obvious by now: The Ukrainian Armed Forces aren’t following the expected playbook. They were supposed to be have been defeated within days of the Feb. 24 invasion, as an accidentally published Russian victory declaration suggests. On the day of the invasion, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner even told the Ukrainian ambassador begging for help that it would all to be over in a few hours. Instead, the war is well into its second month, and a Russian victory seems more remote than ever.

Once their country was occupied and a puppet regime established, the Ukrainians were then supposed to turn to partisan warfare that would transform the war into a long and bitter quagmire for Russia. Yet again, the Ukrainians didn’t listen. Instead of waiting for their defeat, they say they’re planning to launch a coordinated guerrilla campaign within the next few weeks—parallel to the regular war and just as spring turns forests green to provide cover. “The season of a total Ukrainian guerrilla safari will soon begin,” the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, announced in late March . “Then there will be one relevant scenario left for the Russians: how to survive.”

Judging from reports, irregular civilian resistance has already taken place, so the guerrilla campaign announced by Budanov will not be starting from scratch. In the northern part of Poltava province, according to a March 18 report, wild game hunters captured over 10 tanks and other vehicles and pursued retreating Russian troops. Earlier in March, guerrillas reportedly destroyed a convoy of trucks near Kharkiv. Elsewhere, on March 11, villagers reportedly helped police take 29 Russian soldiers prisoner.

Civilians are also playing a role in confiscating weapons, equipment, and supplies from the enemy and handing them over to the Ukrainian forces. On March 23, the Ukrainian General Staff released video footage of a supply truck captured at an undisclosed location by what looked like Ukrainian civilians. In another incident, a group of civilians apparently seized a Russian T-80 tank abandoned in a muddy field. According to one of the civilians in the video, he was learning to drive the T-80 with instructions found via Google .

In addition, peaceful resistance in the form of demonstrations and marches is taking place almost every day in Russian-controlled cities such as Kherson, Melitopol, and Enerhodar. Residents of Kyiv and other unoccupied cities, in turn, have gotten busy preparing Molotov cocktails in case invading Russians come their way.

We know from history—including Russia’s wars in Chechnya—that reprisals against partisans can be especially gruesome.

So far, the most important civilian participation in the fighting has been in the Territorial Defense Forces, a tightly structured volunteer militia subordinated to Ukrainian Armed Forces command. Ukrainian civilians began preparing for irregular warfare in the weeks before the invasion, but additional Territorial Defense Forces units are reportedly being raised to increase Ukrainian fighting power as the war goes on. The tasks of this civilian militia include defending critical infrastructure, supporting the regular armed forces, and combating saboteurs and spies. In the runup to and first few days of the war, some 100,000 volunteers and 37,000 reservists had already signed up.

Civilians who only recently joined the militia already appear to be active as snipers defending the outskirts of Kyiv. A Canadian Ukrainian resident outside Kyiv described one of the activities his unit was involved in: “We’ve organized nightly patrols after several lost Russian soldiers were arrested last week in the area. Their [armored personnel carrier] was blown up by the Ukrainian forces, and after three to four days hiding in the woods, the Russians came out begging for food and water.”

The Territorial Defense Forces are formally separate from a partisan or guerrilla resistance movement, which may still be nascent and in the process of formation. Details are murky, but Ukrainian military doctrine sees the country’s Special Operations Forces , whose members are highly trained in irregular warfare, playing a “leading role in organizing, preparing, supporting and conducting the resistance movement.” They have established a virtual Center of National Resistance , which provides detailed instructions for partisan actions, including how to set up ambushes, respond to chemical attacks, and organize peaceful resistance. According to the center’s website: “In order to become an invisible avenger whom the occupiers will fear, it is necessary to know tactics, medicine, internet security, homemade weapons, and nonviolent actions.”

The center has also published a civil resistance handbook with advice on lowering the occupiers’ morale and other forms of passive resistance, as well as active resistance involving various forms of sabotage. The handbook also gives tips on how regular citizens can help the resistance movement by providing food, shelter, and medicine. A video warns potential saboteurs they will need to live double lives among friends and relatives, pretending to be loyal to the Russians while simultaneously undermining their rule. While the internet is no substitute for hands-on training, this is little different from historical examples of partisan warfare, where goals and methods were passed on by leaflets, pamphlets, and word of mouth. Today, websites can easily and more effectively do the trick.

Guerrillas and partisans the world over have consisted overwhelmingly of peasants and other villagers who know the terrain intimately, can engage in hit-and-run tactics, and can keep an invader off balance at unexpected locations. That will be similar in Ukraine—especially as the Russians have proved unable to take any major Ukrainian cities, where urban guerrillas would play a role. Ukrainian hunters may form an especially large component, as hunting is a popular sport in Ukraine’s west and north, where the terrain is a mix of forest, steppe, and mountains. Although there are a comparably low 9.9 civilian firearms per 100 citizens in Ukraine, those guns are mainly owned in rural regions. At this point, the number of weapons has clearly risen: Immediately after the invasion, nearly 20,000 guns were distributed to reservists in Kyiv in preparation for a possible assault on the capital, and weapons have been distributed in other regions as well.

Most elements of an effective guerrilla struggle are thus in place. The only missing piece is friendly terrain, but once the forests and hedges turn green, as they will in April, they will provide guerrillas with better cover. At that point, the fighters will be able to systematically infiltrate Russian-occupied territory—especially in the forested north—and strike the Russian military from the rear while regular Ukrainian forces attack from the front.

Ukraine’s east and south, however, consist largely of flat, treeless steppe, which are ill-suited for traditional rural guerrilla warfare. But Russian-occupied towns and villages could be infiltrated by saboteurs and urban guerrillas from the Territorial Defense Forces to target soldiers, Rosgvardia occupation police, and local collaborators.

The center has also published a civil resistance handbook with advice on lowering the occupiers’ morale and  various forms of sabotage.

It’s the forested north where Russian soldiers, supply trucks, weaponry, and logistics are likely to make especially attractive targets. There, Russian forces and supplies move along the main roads, avoiding unmarked, hard-to-navigate rural terrain, and are often poorly guarded and overstretched. Such tactics are an open invitation to guerrilla attacks, as the history of partisan warfare shows well. Many Ukrainians will remember their country’s history in World War II, when nationalists and Soviet Ukrainian partisans controlled the forests, swamps, and mountains of western and northern Ukraine, while urban guerrillas harassed the occupying German forces in the cities. Even after the Soviets displaced the Germans as masters of Ukraine in 1944, nationalist partisans managed to continue their struggle for another decade, killing more than 30,000 Soviet functionaries and secret police, according to the Ukrainian historian Ivan Patryliak.

This history matters, because western Ukrainians have lionized the nationalist guerrillas and their struggle for independence. Similarly, eastern Ukrainians venerated the anti-German partisans, thanks to the Soviet cult of World War II. Joining the guerrillas today is thus a time-honored undertaking, allowing participants to consciously step into a long tradition of resistance to totalitarianism. Guerrillas take enormous risks, so they need to be absolutely dedicated to the cause they’re fighting for. Being able to place one’s own sacrifices within a longer historical or even family tradition can therefore sustain the motivation and courage that has proved so effective thus far against largely unmotivated Russian troops.

Russia will, of course, take brutal countermeasures. We know from history—including Russia’s wars in Chechnya—that reprisals against partisans can be especially gruesome, affecting local populations far beyond any real or suspected insurgents. Between 1945 and 1955 in Ukraine, the Soviets killed more than 150,000 alleged guerrillas and sympathizers, according to Patryliak. Hundreds of thousands of western Ukrainians were deported to Siberia or Central Asia, and almost 90,000 were jailed. Today, however, guerrillas won’t be alone in the woods but acting in conjunction with Ukraine’s armed forces, which have proved to be highly effective in withstanding the Russians and which enjoy material support from a number of countries. They won’t be fighting for an idealistic cause but defending an existing country.

So even as the regular war goes on, Ukrainian guerrillas could very well help turn the tide. Many of the Russian replacement troops being rushed to the Ukrainian front are poorly trained recruits with no combat experience. Facing a battle-hardened Ukrainian army will be hard enough for them. Resisting guerrilla attacks in their rear may be, as Budanov promises , “real hell.”

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.

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Swedish prime minister says Russia will not like their accession to NATO

From CNN's Lauren Kent and Li-Lian Ahlskog Hou in London

Ulf Kristersson attends a press conference in Stockholm, Sweden, on February 26.

Sweden can expect that Russia will "not like" the country's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) , Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Monday.

"As for Russia, the only thing we can safely expect is that they do not like Sweden becoming a NATO member. They didn't like Finland becoming a NATO member either," Kristersson said at a news conference in Stockholm, highlighting that Russia's ambitions to limit NATO expansion have backfired.

Kristersson also noted the historic nature of his country's ascension into the alliance.

"Sweden is leaving behind 200 years of neutrality and non-alignment. It's a big step and something to take seriously but it is also a very natural step that we take. Membership in NATO means that we now come home to a large number of democracies' cooperation for peace and freedom. A very successful cooperation," Kristersson said.

Earlier on Monday, Hungary's parliament approved Sweden's bid to join NATO, clearing the last hurdle for the country to become the 32nd member of the military alliance.

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Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine on February 25.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the Hungarian parliament's vote to approve  Sweden's North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership on Monday.

"This is a historic day for Sweden and Euro-Atlantic security. Congratulations to @SwedishPM Ulf Kristersson and all Swedes. Sweden's accession will undoubtedly strengthen the Alliance, particularly in light of the Russian threat to the free world,” Zelensky wrote on X , adding that Ukraine is looking forward “to working closely with Sweden and other NATO allies to advance Ukraine's NATO membership."

More background: A decision to admit Ukraine would extend the sacred NATO pledge that an attack on one member is an attack on all to a nation Russia regards, at a minimum, as part of its sphere of influence — even if such a claim has no basis in international law. It would commit future Western leaders to go to war with nuclear-armed Russia and potentially risk a third World War if the Kremlin attacked its neighbor again.

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French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference in support of Ukraine, with European leaders and government representatives, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France on Monday.

Sending Western troops to Ukraine “cannot be ruled out," French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday after hosting a conference in Paris where European leaders discussed the prospect.

There was “no agreement this evening to officially send troops onto the ground but we cannot exclude anything,” he told reporters.

The aid conference for Ukraine brought together representatives of the European Union’s 27 member countries including 21 heads of state and governments, he said.

“We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war,” Macron said. “And I say this with determination, but also with a collective humility that we need to have, in the light of the last two years."

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Macron also announced a new coalition would be set up to supply medium and long-range “missiles and bombs” to Ukraine. EU leaders and government representatives “decided to step up the munitions side and produce tangible results very quickly” across the eight coalitions that already exist, he said.

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Here are the top headlines:

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3 killed after drone strike hits civilian car in Belgorod region, governor says

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At least three people were killed and three others were injured after a drone strike hit a car with civilians in the village of Pochaevo, in Russia's Belgorod region, the regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Monday.

Gladkov blamed Ukrainian armed forces on the strike.

Gladkov said in a Telegram post that the people in the car at the moment of the strike were local construction workers.

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Ukraine's president pointed to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 as the beginning of Moscow's aggression toward Kyiv.

Marking the Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea and Sevastopol on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the day Russia occupied the peninsula 10 years ago was the day "the future fate of international security and international relations was determined."

Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine has "already achieved significant results in the Black Sea” and is working “to achieve the necessary results in the sky and on the ground in Crimea.” 

He also thanked Ukraine's partners and noted that everything they “do together for the defense against Russian aggression adds real security” to their nations “for decades to come.”

Hungary's parliament approves Sweden's bid to join NATO

From CNN's Lauren Kent and Joshua Berlinger

A view of the Hungarian Parliament as representatives vote on the ratification of Sweden's NATO membership in the main hall of the parliament building in Budapest, Hungary, on February 26.

Hungary's parliament on Monday approved Sweden's bid to join NATO , clearing the last hurdle for the country to become the 32nd member of the US-led military alliance.

The vote passed with 188 members of parliament in favor and six against. In total, 194 members voted. Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said on Monday that he is sure Sweden will be "a strong and reliable ally" who will benefit the NATO alliance. 

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson celebrated the vote.

"Today is a historic day. The parliaments of all NATO member states have now voted in favour of Swedish accession to NATO. Sweden stands ready to shoulder its responsibility for Euro-Atlantic security," Kristersson said in a social media post .

Sweden applied to be a NATO member in May 2022 after Russia launched its full-scale  invasion of Ukraine .

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also welcomed the vote , and said, "Sweden’s membership will make us all stronger and safer."

With Sweden’s accession, NATO will count 32 countries among its members, an ironic twist given that Russia launched its war against Ukraine in part due to the alliance’s growth in Eastern Europe along Russia’s border.

CNN's Stephanie Halasz contributed reporting to this post.

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As the war in Ukraine moves into its second month, fears grow of Mariupol’s fall to Russia.

Ukraine’s top military intelligence officer suggested that Russia was changing its military focus to the south and east and might be trying to divide the country.

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ukraine war safari

By Carlotta Gall

  • March 27, 2022

KYIV, Ukraine — Russian forces redoubled attacks on strategic targets across Ukraine on Sunday, with fierce fighting reported around the capital, Kyiv, amid signs that the besieged city of Mariupol was close to falling.

As the conflict moved into its second month, Russian forces have largely failed in their first aim to take the largest cities and have narrowed immediate targets to the sieges of the southern port city of Mariupol and the strategically placed city of Chernihiv in the north.

Air raid sirens rang out in Kyiv during the day, but otherwise the city remained calm, lending some credence to the Russian Defense Ministry’s recent assertion that it was turning its focus away from Kyiv to concentrate on the eastern front. Some Russian units were withdrawing to Belarus in the north to regroup and re-equip, according to the Ukrainian military, but heavy Russian artillery attacks continued around Chernihiv, northeast of Kyiv.

Seven people, including two children, died in artillery fire in Kharkiv, in northeast Ukraine, as Russian forces tried to subdue the city near the border, the Ukrainian news media reported. And missiles hit a fuel depot in western Ukraine as Russia continued to use airstrikes to disrupt supply lines to Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine’s top military intelligence officer suggested that Russia was changing its military focus to the south and east and might be trying to divide Ukraine between occupied and nonoccupied territories.

“In fact, this is an attempt to create North and South Korea in Ukraine,” said Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the intelligence division of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

Fighting across the country showed Russian forces were working to consolidate their positions in key spots north of Kyiv and resisting Ukrainian attempts to break their grip there while focusing fully on seizing control of Mariupol. After weeks of siege in the port city, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians trapped there were facing increasingly dire conditions, without food and water, forcing people to use untreated sewage water to survive.

Western military analysts and Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasized that Russian forces have suffered heavy losses and have been thwarted in their primary objectives: to wrest control of the country’s main cities, including Kyiv. Struggling with difficulties in their supply lines, Russian forces are having to move slowly and focus on one target at a time, said Jack Watling, a research fellow and specialist in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain.

Still, Ukrainian forces, despite their successes in ambushing and stalling Russian units around the country, have not been able to reverse Russian gains in any significant way, he added.

In an interview with Russian journalists on Sunday, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that Russian forces had entered parts of Mariupol and that he had told Ukrainian soldiers still holding out there that they could abandon the city to save their own lives.

“I talk to them twice a day,” he said. “I told them, ‘If you feel that you need to get out and that it is right, that you can survive, then do it. I understand.’”

He added that the officers refused to go because they did not want to leave dead and wounded comrades and civilians behind. He made the remarks in an interview with several independent journalists that was published on the YouTube channel Zygar.

Mr. Watling said he did not expect Ukrainian forces to hold Mariupol any longer than a few days more.

“They ran out of water, they ran out of food a while ago,” he said. “Exhausted troops on sewage water — you cannot fight long on that.”

He added that he expected an insurgency to continue in the city after it falls.

As the war ground on, its physical toll on Ukraine was becoming more apparent. An estimated $63 billion in Ukrainian infrastructure had been damaged or destroyed as of last Thursday, Ukraine’s Parliament said in a Twitter post on Sunday.

The losses include more than 4,400 residential buildings, 138 health care facilities, eight civilian airports and 378 educational institutions. The cost was calculated by the Kyiv School of Economics.

After a month of intense fighting near Kyiv, some Russian military units were withdrawing to Belarus to regroup, traveling through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the Ukrainian military said.

“These measures are taken to rotate units that have suffered significant losses, strengthen existing groups, replenish food, fuel and ammunition and evacuate wounded and sick soldiers,” the military said in a statement.

It also said that the Russian Army was using the site of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor for logistics. Russian troops have blockaded the town of Slavutich, which is close to the Chernobyl station, and have escalated attacks on Chernihiv in an apparent attempt to consolidate a band of control north of the capital.

Ukraine’s chief negotiator at peace talks with Russia said a new round of negotiations would take place this week, starting Monday in Turkey, a NATO member that has used President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s good relations with both Russia and Ukraine to try to mediate a solution to the conflict. But Turkish officials have conceded that any agreement between the two parties remains distant.

Mr. Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, predicted the Ukrainian Army would repel Russian forces as the fighting descended into an all-out guerrilla war.

“The season of a total Ukrainian guerrilla safari will soon begin,” he said. “Then there will be one relevant scenario left for the Russians: how to survive.”

More than 1,100 civilians have been killed since the war in Ukraine began, including at least 99 children, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in a report released Sunday that cautioned that the actual figures might be “considerably higher.” An additional 1,790 civilians have been wounded, including 126 children, the report added.

With many areas of Ukraine still bogged down by the conflict, many of the dead and wounded cannot be counted, the United Nations said. Left out of the U.N. report was the besieged city of Mariupol, where Russian forces hit a theater this month that hundreds of civilians were using as a bomb shelter, killing some 300 people, according to local officials.

As President Biden returned home from a visit with NATO allies in Europe and with Ukrainian refugees in Poland, President Zelensky urged him and other Western leaders to give Ukraine tanks, planes and missiles to help fend off Russian forces.

“Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles with shotguns, with machine guns,” he said. “And it is impossible to break the blockade in Mariupol without a sufficient number of tanks, other armored vehicles and, of course, aircraft.”

“Thousands of people — citizens, civilians who are dying there in the blockade — know that,” he added. “The United States knows it. All European politicians know it. We have told everyone.”

Mr. Zelensky’s remarks came as American officials scrambled Sunday to clarify that the United States does not have a policy of regime change in Russia, after Mr. Biden said at the end of a speech in Poland on Saturday that Russia’s leader, Vladimir V. Putin “cannot remain in power.”

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the president had simply meant Mr. Putin could not be “empowered to wage war” against Ukraine or anywhere else.

French and British officials distanced themselves from Mr. Biden’s remarks. When asked about them in an interview on Sunday, France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said he would not use such language, adding that there should be no escalation — in words or actions.

Reporting was contributed by Ivan Nechepurenko from Istanbul, Maria Varenikova from Kyiv, Marc Santora from Krakow, Poland, Austin Ramzy from Hong Kong and Valerie Hopkins from Lviv, Ukraine. Maria Abi-Habib also contributed reporting.

Carlotta Gall is the Istanbul bureau chief, covering Turkey. She previously covered the aftershocks of the Arab Spring from Tunisia, reported from the Balkans during the war in Kosovo and Serbia, and covered Afghanistan and Pakistan. More about Carlotta Gall

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The Ukraine Safari

Western leftists argue that Russia needs an “off-ramp” that will allow it to “save face” in Ukraine. But that logic cuts both ways: After Russian leaders’ latest nuclear threats, it is Ukraine and the West that can no longer compromise and still save face.

LJUBLJANA – I don’t usually write about cultural products from my own country, but I must make an exception for Slovenian filmmaker Miran Zupanič’s new documentary Sarajevo Safari , which details one of the most bizarre and pathological episodes of the 1992-96 siege of the Bosnian capital.

It is well known that Serb snipers in the hills surrounding the city would arbitrarily shoot residents on the streets below, and that select Serb allies (mostly Russians) were invited to fire some shots of their own. Yet now we learn that this opportunity was provided not only as a gesture of appreciation but also as a kind of tourist activity for paying customers. Through “safaris” organized by the Bosnian Serb Army, dozens of rich foreigners – mostly from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Italy, but also from Russia – paid top dollar for the chance to shoot at helpless civilians.

Consider the special form of subjectivity that such a safari would confer on the “hunter.” Though the victims were anonymous, this was no video game; the perverse thrill lay in the fact that it was real. And yet, by playing the “hunter,” these rich tourists, occupying a safe perch above the city, effectively excluded themselves from ordinary reality. For their targets, the stakes were life or death.

There is something perversely honest in this melding of reality and spectacle. After all, aren’t top politicians and corporate managers also engaged in a kind of safari? From their safe perch in the C-suite, executives often ruin many lives.

Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who now serves as deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, recently imputed a similar logic to Western political leaders. Dismissing warnings by the US and NATO about the consequences of a Russian tactical nuclear strike, Medvedev argued that:

“[T]he security of Washington, London, Brussels is much more important for the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of a dying Ukraine that no one needs. The supply of modern weapons is just a business for Western countries. Overseas and European demagogues are not going to perish in a nuclear apocalypse. Therefore, they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict.”

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Medvedev has also said that the Kremlin will “do everything” to prevent “hostile neighbors” like “Nazi Ukraine” from acquiring or hosting nuclear weapons, as this supposedly would pose an existential threat to the Russian state. But since it is Russia that is threatening Ukraine’s existence as a state, Medvedev’s logic dictates that Ukraine, too, should have arms – and even nuclear weapons – to achieve military parity.

Recall Putin’s own words this past June: “… there is no in-between, no intermediate state: either a country is sovereign, or it is a colony, no matter what the colonies are called.” Since he obviously views Ukraine as a Russian colony, the West should not treat Ukraine as though it agreed with him. That means rejecting the idea that Western powers should bypass Ukraine and broker a settlement with Russia.

Unfortunately, many Western leftists have been playing directly into Putin’s hands on this issue. Consider Harlan Ullman of the Atlantic Council, who writes : “Clemenceau observed that ‘war is too important to be left to the generals.’ In this case, is Ukraine too important to be left to Zelensky? The US needs a strategy with an off-ramp to seek an end to the violence and the war.”

Leftists from Noam Chomsky to Jeffrey Sachs (not to mention the many Russia apologists on the right ) have adopted similar positions. After first insisting that Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia, they now imply that it should not win, because that would leave Putin cornered and therefore dangerous .

But if we had followed the peaceniks’ advice and not sent arms to Ukraine, that country would now be fully occupied, its subjugation accompanied by far greater atrocities than those found in Bucha , Izium , and many other places.

A far better stance has been adopted by the German Greens, who advocate not only full support for Ukraine but also structural reforms to accelerate the transition away from oil and gas, which in turn will steer humanity away from catastrophic climate change. The rest of the Western left has been on safari, refusing an intervention that will challenge its established way of life.

Peaceniks argue that Russia needs a victory or concession that will allow it to “ save face .” But that logic cuts both ways. Following Medvedev and Putin’s nuclear threats, it is Ukraine and the West that can no longer compromise and still save face. Recall that Medvedev predicted that the West would refuse to respond militarily to a Russian nuclear strike because it is too cowardly and greedy to do so.

Here, we enter the domain of philosophy, because Putin and Medvedev’s words clearly echo Hegel’s master-slave dialectic . If two self-consciousnesses are engaged in a life-or-death struggle, there can be no winner, because one will die and the victor will no longer have another self-consciousness around who can recognize its own self-consciousness. The entire history of human culture rests on the original compromise by which someone becomes the servant that “averts its eyes” to prevent mutual assured destruction.

Medvedev and Putin presume that the decadent, hedonist West will avert its eyes. And that brings us back to the dynamic captured in Sarajevo Safari . Privileged elites feel as though they can intervene in the real world in strategic ways that entail no personal danger. But reality catches up with everyone eventually. When it does, we must not heed the advice of those concerned only with not provoking the beast in the valley.

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Why Trump Can’t Win

Since Donald Trump incited an insurrection following his 2020 electoral loss, he has moderated neither his rhetoric nor his behavior; on the contrary, both have become more extreme. If this depresses Republican voter turnout even marginally, Trump is headed for a major defeat this November.

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Western leaders rally around Kyiv to mark 2 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv on Saturday to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and weaponry and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Feb. 24)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Italy's Premier Giorgia Meloni, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, from right to left, attend laying flowers ceremony at the Wall of Remembrance to pay tribute to killed Ukrainian soldiers, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv to mark the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Italy’s Premier Giorgia Meloni, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, from right to left, attend laying flowers ceremony at the Wall of Remembrance to pay tribute to killed Ukrainian soldiers, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

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People stand at the memorial site for those killed during the war, near Maidan Square in central Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. Ukraine is marking two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion with a somber mood hanging over the country. On the battlefield, Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition as they hope for further Western aid. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does a livestream on his phone during a ceremony at Hostomel Airport in Kyiv on Saturday, February 24, 2024. The ceremony marks the second anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Italy’s Premier Giorgia Meloni, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, from right background to left, attend laying flowers ceremony at the Memory Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, second left, walks ahead the laying flowers at the Memory Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. Ukraine is marking two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion with a somber mood hanging over the country. On the battlefield, Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition as they hope for further Western aid. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, second left, walks after laying flowers at the Memory Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. Ukraine is marking two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion with a somber mood hanging over the country. On the battlefield, Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition as they hope for further Western aid. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

Flags wave at the memorial site for those killed during the war, near Maidan Square in central Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. Ukraine is marking two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion with a somber mood hanging over the country. On the battlefield, Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition as they hope for further Western aid. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Fuminori Tsuchiko, a 75-year-old Japanese volunteer, ties a Ukrainian flag to a tree at the memorial site for those killed during the war, near Maidan Square in central Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. Ukraine is marking two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion with a somber mood hanging over the country. On the battlefield, Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition as they hope for further Western aid. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Smoke rise from an air defense base in the aftermath of an apparent Russian strike in Mariupol, Ukraine, on Feb. 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

People attend a rally to demand the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war, who were taken captive in the Mariupol region of Ukraine by Russian forces, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. Ukraine is marking two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion with a somber mood hanging over the country. On the battlefield, Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition as they hope for further Western aid. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

People gather to show support for Ukraine, in front of the Russian Embassy in Copenhagen, Denmark, Saturday Feb. 24, 2024, marking the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Keld Navntoft/Ritzau Scanpix via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo speak, next to the Memory Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, centre and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, speak, next to the Memory Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, talks with Italy’s Premier Giorgia Meloni during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv Saturday to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance.

Allies from the EU and the Group of Seven wealthy democracies rallied around Kyiv to express solidarity, with Zelenskyy joining a virtual G7 meeting Saturday and four world leaders traveling to Ukraine’s war-weary capital.

“Two years ago, here, we met enemy landing forces with fire; two years later, we meet our friends and our partners here,” Zelenskyy said as he met the dignitaries at Hostomel airfield just outside of Kyiv, which Russian paratroopers unsuccessfully tried to seize in the first days of the war.

A somber mood hangs over Ukraine as the war against Russia enters its third year and Kyiv’s troops face mounting challenges on the frontline amid dwindling supplies and personnel challenges. Its troops recently withdrew from the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka, handing Moscow one of its biggest victories. And Russia still controls roughly a quarter of the country after Ukraine failed to make any major breakthroughs with its summertime counteroffensive.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu arrives to take part in a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Alexander Garden on Defender of the Fatherland Day, in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Feb. 23, 2024. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv shortly after a Russian drone attack struck a residential building in the southern city of Odesa, killing at least one person. Three women also sustained severe burns in the attack Friday evening, regional Gov. Oleh Kiper wrote on his social media account. Rescue services combed through the rubble looking for survivors.

Hours later, Zelenskyy’s office announced the signing of 10-year bilateral security deals with Canada and Italy, with Ottawa committing to send Kyiv 3.02 billion Canadian dollars (close to 2.2 billion US dollars) in military and economic aid this year while Rome promised much-needed long-range weapons.

In a joint press conference, Meloni hailed the agreement with Kyiv and said, “We will continue to support Ukraine in what I have always deemed the just right of its people to defend itself.”

“Confusing the much-bandied about word ‘peace’ with ‘surrender,’ as some people do, is a hypocritical approach that we will never share,” she added.

Meloni also chaired a G7 videoconference from Kyiv that produced a joint statement Saturday reaffirming world leaders’ commitment to “supporting a comprehensive, just and lasting peace,” tightening sanctions on Russia and sending Ukraine military and economic aid for “as long as it takes.”

Flowers and toys lie on the ground at a makeshift memorial commemorating victims of a Dec. 30 missile attack by Ukraine in Belgorod, Russia, Monday, Feb. 19, 2024. Belgorod has come under repeated Ukrainian shelling, and hundreds of bus stops in the city near the border with Ukraine have been reinforced with blocks of concrete and sandbags to protect them from rocket strikes. (AP Photo/Kirill Zarubin)

Von der Leyen vowed during the joint press conference that the bloc will stand with Ukraine “financially, economically, militarily, and most of all, morally, until (the) country is finally free.”

At the press conference, Zelenskyy highlighted the urgency of timely arms deliveries, while pledging that Kyiv would not use weapons from allied countries to strike Russian territory. His words reflected an increasingly tense battlefield situation in eastern Ukraine, where Kyiv’s troops are trying to hold back Russian advances despite a escalating ammunition shortage.

On the frontline in the eastern Donetsk region, Ukrainian soldiers pleaded for shells.

“When the enemy comes in, a lot of our guys die. ... We are sitting here with nothing,” said Volodymyr, 27, a senior officer in an artillery battery.

“In order to protect our infantry ... we need a high number of shells, which we do not have now,” said Oleksandr, 45, a commander of an artillery unit. The two officers gave only their first names, citing security concerns.

About 100 people gathered outside St. Sophia’s Cathedral in central Kyiv Saturday, calling for the release of Azov Brigade members who were taken captive by Russia after defending the southern city of Mariupol.

Olena Petrivna, the mother of a member taken by Russian forces questioned why Russia invaded Ukraine, saying that before the war people “lived our own lives, not bothering anyone, raising our children”.

The Russians, she said, tried to conquer Ukraine to teach them what to say and what language to speak but, she added, “We don’t need them. We have one destiny – victory. We must win.”

The war has also come to Russia. Drones hit a steel plant in the Lipetsk region in southern Russia Saturday, causing a large fire, regional Gov. Igor Artamonov said, adding there are no casualties. Independent Russian media said the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant is the largest steel plant in Russia. Videos shared on Russian social media showed several fires burning at the plant, and an explosion could be heard.

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, centre and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, speak, next to the Memory Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed Western leaders to Kyiv to mark the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, as Ukrainian forces run low on ammunition and foreign aid hangs in the balance. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

Independent Russian news outlet Mediazona said Saturday that about 75,000 Russian men died in 2022 and 2023 fighting in the war.

A joint investigation published by Mediazona and Meduza, another independent Russian news site, indicates that the rate of Russia’s losses in Ukraine is not slowing and that Moscow is losing about 120 men a day. Based on a statistical analysis of the recorded deaths of soldiers compared with a Russian inheritance database, the journalists said about 83,000 soldiers are likely to have died in the two years of fighting.

Solidarity demonstrations with Ukraine were held across Europe, including in London, Berlin and Stockholm.

In Belgrade, hundreds marched through the city center carrying Ukrainian flags. Though it has condemned the invasion of Ukraine, Serbia has not joined Western sanctions against Russia and maintains friendly relations with Moscow.

Despite a heavy crackdown on dissent, some Russians marked the anniversary by laying flowers at Moscow monuments or staging one-person protests. According to OVD-Info, a Russian rights group that tracks political arrests and provides legal aid, at least six people were detained across Russia on Saturday for holding up antiwar signs, bearing flowers in Ukraine’s national colors or otherwise expressing support for Kyiv. Four more were arrested in Moscow at a demonstration calling for the return of mobilized Russian soldiers from Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainians continue to live in precarious circumstances , and many others face constant struggles under Russian occupation. Most are waiting for a Ukrainian liberation that hasn’t come.

Olena Zelenska, the president’s wife, said Saturday that more than 2 million Ukrainian children have left the country since the war began and that at least 528 have been killed. “The war started by Russia deliberately targets children,” she said.

Britain has pledged an additional 8.5 million pounds ($10.8 million) of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, bolstering efforts to provide medical care, food and basic services to residents.

About 14.6 million people, or 40% of Ukraine’s population, need assistance, with many left homeless or without adequate access to food, water and electricity, Britain’s Foreign Office said in announcing the aid.

People stand at the memorial site for those killed during the war, near Maidan Square in central Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. Ukraine is marking two years since Russia's full-scale invasion with a somber mood hanging over the country. On the battlefield, Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition as they hope for further Western aid. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

In the U.S. Congress, Republicans have stalled $60 billion in military aid for Kyiv, desperately needed in the short term. The EU recently approved a 50 billion-euro (about $54 billion) aid package for Ukraine meant to support Ukraine’s economy, despite resistance from Hungary.

Associated Press writers Alex Babenko in the Donetsk region of Ukraine and Vasilisa Stepanenko in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed to this report.

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Volodymyr Zelenskiy, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Belgium's Alexander De Croo and Canada's Justin Trudeau walk in Hostomel, outside Kyiv

Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 732

G7 leaders urge additional support after defiant Zelenskiy hosts western leaders; Navalny’s body handed over to his mother

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The leaders of G7 countries pledged support for Ukraine and new sanctions on Russia after a virtual meeting Saturday on the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. After the meeting, the G7 leaders didn’t make any public statement about further military aid, but urged “the approval of additional support to close Ukraine’s remaining budget gap for 2024”. They also demanded that Russia “fully clarify the circumstances” around the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed western leaders to Kyiv on the anniversary, declaring that Vladimir Putin “must lose absolutely everything” . Four western leaders, including the prime ministers of Italy, Canada, and Belgium, arrived in Kyiv on Saturday to show solidarity with Ukraine on the second anniversary of the war.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, Belgium’s Alexander De Croo and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen , travelled to the Ukrainian capital together overnight by train from neighbouring Poland, the Italian government said in a statement, Reuters reported.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday he had signed a bilateral security agreement with Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau in Kyiv. Canada joins Italy, Britain, Germany, France and Denmark in concluding a 10-year security deal with Kyiv. The agreements are intended to shore up Ukraine’s security until it can reach its aim of becoming a member of the western military alliance, Nato.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa on Saturday, said Germany was still discussing whether to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine . “Of course, everything (in regards to military support) we are delivering is too little,” she said at a press conference after paying an unannounced visit to the country.

The body of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been handed over to his mother, a spokesperson has confirmed. The spokesperson for the opposition politician, who died while in prison last week, said funeral arrangements are still to be determined. It is “unclear” whether the authorities will interfere, they added.

Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Alexei Navalny , had demanded that Russian authorities release his body for burial and accused a “demonic” Russian president Vladimir Putin of “torturing” his corpse. In a six minute video posted on YouTube, Navalnaya accused Putin of holding her husband’s body “hostage”, and questioned Putin’s often-professed Christian faith, Reuters reported.

A fire broke out and was extinguished at Russian steelmaker NLMK’s main plant, the regional governor said on Saturday . Preliminary data indicated the fire at the Novolipetsk Steel plant was caused by a drone, the Lipetsk regional governor, Igor Artamonov, said on Telegram, without mentioning Ukraine, Reuters reports. There were no casualties, Artamonov said.

Hundreds of people gathered at Marble Arch in central London to protest against Russia’s invasion . Demonstrators waved Ukrainian flags, with others wrapping them around their shoulders, PA Media reported. Other protesters bore signs urging Russia to “stop the war”, labelling Russian president Vladimir Putin a “terrorist” and urging international powers to offer more support.

Russia is unlikely to take part at the outset of a high-level Ukraine peace conference which neutral Switzerland plans to host in the coming months, Swiss president Viola Amherd was quoted as saying by a newspaper on Saturday. Amherd’s interview with the Neue Zuercher Zeitung daily was published a few hours after Swiss foreign minister Ignazio Cassis told the United Nations that Berne aimed to hold the conference “by this summer” after the idea was floated in January.

UK foreign secretary David Cameron warned allies in the United Nations against “fatigue” and “compromise” over Russia’s war in Ukraine as he urged countries including the US to keep up support for Kyiv. The UK foreign secretary said the world must “recognise the cost of giving up” in a speech in New York on the eve of the second anniversary of Moscow’s invasion, PA Media reported.

The UK has pledged £8.5m in humanitarian funding allocations to the Red Cross Movement and the Ukraine Humanitarian Fund . David Cameron said: “Ukrainians are bravely defending their land against Russia’s brutal invasion, but the past two years of war have had a tragic impact on millions of people across Ukraine. Families have been separated, towns and villages decimated, and vital civilian infrastructure destroyed.

Protesters said they dumped two tons of dung outside the home of the Russian ambassador to Poland on Saturday, as they marked the second anniversary of the invasion . Activists put a bloodied Russian flag with the letter “Z” on the pile of manure and stuck a sign into it that said “Russia = shit! We don’t want you in EU! Get out!”, pictures of the protest in Konstancin-Jeziorna, seen by Reuters, showed. The town near Warsaw is where the ambassador lives.

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February 27, 2024 - Russia-Ukraine news

By Kathleen Magramo , Christian Edwards, Antoinette Radford and Aditi Sangal , CNN

Our live coverage has ended. Follow the latest Ukraine news  or read through the updates below.

Ukrainian resistance forces says it blew up a pro-Putin party office in an occupied southern city

From CNN’s Mariya Knight in Atlanta

Ukraine’s National Resistance Center, an official body, said Tuesday that Ukrainian resistance forces blew up an office of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “United Russia” party in the occupied southern Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson region.

The National Resistance Center which is run by Ukraine's Special Forces said the attack was carried out in order “to stop the fake election process in the captured city” as the preparations are underway for the Russian presidential elections in March.

The Center of National Resistance called on citizens of Ukraine who are currently residing on the occupied territories, not to participate in the upcoming Russian election and warned that “every collaborator who helps organize the 'election process' will be held accountable for their actions.” 

Marina Zakharova, the head of the Russian-appointed Electoral Commission of the Kherson region, said in a video message on Tuesday that “as a result of a terrorist attack by Ukraine” in Nova Kakhovka “the premises of precinct commissions were damaged.” 

Zakharova said that Tuesday was “the first day of early voting in the presidential elections in hard-to-reach and remote settlements, including those located along the line of military contact.”

This was not the first incident when Ukraine was trying to sabotage the election sights on Tuesday, according to Zakharova. She said “an enemy shell exploded near the territorial election commission in the Holoprystanskyi municipal district,” which is in Kherson region as well.

Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-appointed acting head of the Kherson region administration, also confirmed the attacks but claimed they were carried out by drones. Saldo said there were no victims following the attacks and posted the video of the destruction on the cites to his Telegram channel.

One of Navalny’s lawyers released after detention in Moscow

One of Alexey Navalny’s lawyers was released after being detained in Moscow, Russia, on Tuesday, according to Vasily Dubkov’s comment to the Russian Independent media Verstka, following his release.

Dubkov was the lawyer who flew with Navalny’s mother to Salekhard — the Siberian town where Navalny's body was being kept in a morgue — in order to receive official confirmation of his death, according to Verstka.

Dubkov “did not comment on the reason and circumstances of his detention, saying only that he considered it to be an obstruction of his lawyer’s activities,” Verstka said.

CNN cannot independently verify Verstka's reporting.

Navalny's three other lawyers — Vadim Kobzev, Alexey Liptser and Igor Sergunin — were arrested in October 2023 and accused of "being members of an extremist community,” according to Navalny’s team.

The Basmanny court in Moscow ordered the arrest in absentia of Navalny’s other lawyer Olga Mikhailova and Alexander Fedulov on the same charge on February 15, according to the courts of general jurisdiction of the city of Moscow.

6th person charged for allegedly spying for Russia in the UK, Crown Prosecution Services says

From CNN’s Sugam Pokharel in London

Britain’s prosecution service has charged a sixth person for allegedly spying for Russia in the UK.

The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said in a statement Tuesday that Bulgarian national Tihomir Ivanchev, 38, was charged with conspiring to collect information “which might be or was intended to be directly or indirectly useful for a purpose prejudicial to the safety and interest of the state.”

In September last year, the CPS charged five other Bulgarian nationals for alleged conspiracy to conduct espionage.

"A sixth suspect was identified and arrested as a result of enquiries made following the previous five arrests in this investigation," said Commander Dominic Murphy, who leads the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command.

Ivanchev was arrested on February 7 as part of an ongoing investigation being led by the terrorism command, the police said in a  statement .

He was subsequently bailed, and then charged on Tuesday. The Bulgarian national will appear at London’s Westminster Magistrates' Court on Wednesday, according to the police. The trial for the other five charged under the same alleged offense is due to start in October, according to the CPS.

Russian human rights activist sentenced to 2.5 years in prison for "discrediting the military"

Oleg Orlov attends his verdict hearing in Moscow on February 27, 2024.

Oleg Orlov , a Russian human rights activist and co-chairman of Memorial Human Rights Defense Center, was sentenced to two years and six months in a general regime correctional colony, the courts of general jurisdiction of the city of Moscow said in a statement on Tuesday.

The Golovinsky District Court of Moscow found Orlov guilty of "discrediting the military" and Orlov was denied the right to access Internet and post on social media for the duration of his sentence, according to the statement posted on the court’s Telegram page. 

Orlov was taken into custody in the courtroom following the verdict, the statement read. In his "final word" addressed to the court on Monday, Orlov said he was “shocked” by the news about the death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny .

Orlov called Navalny "a wonderful person, brave, honest, who, in incredibly difficult conditions created especially for him, did not lose optimism and faith in the future” of Russia, according to the transcript published on Memorial Human Rights Defense Center website.

Orlov also said he believes Navalny was murdered “regardless of the specific circumstances of this death.”

The Kremlin has denied any role in Navalny’s death.

Orlov said he "has been on trial for an article that he had written more than a year ago," referring to his article entitled “They wanted fascism. They got it” that he wrote in November 2022 for a French publication. He later reposted that article on his Facebook page.

In that article Orlov criticized the current political regime in Russia and called it “totalitarian and fascist.”

“Orlov was imprisoned for speaking the truth out loud. He talked about the war and the crimes that the Russian state is committing. Orlov’s voice is the voice of many of us, the voice of human rights defenders, activists, citizens of Russia and the world,” the defense center said in a Telegram post following the verdict on Tuesday.

The Memorial Human Rights Defense Center  was banned in Russia in late 2021 and the Russian Justice Ministry designated Oleg Orlov a "foreign agent” on February 2, 2024.

European leaders reject sending troops to Ukraine as Russia takes more territory. Catch up here

From CNN Staff

French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out sending Western troops to fight on the ground as Ukraine comes under more pressure from Russian advances. Macron's comments have prompted many European nations to quickly allay any domestic fears their countries may be sending soldiers to the war-torn region on Tuesday.

The US State Department reiterated that President Joe Biden has ruled out sending US troops to fight in Ukraine, in response to Macron's comments.

Macron's comments also caused a clash among French oppositions leaders, despite France’s defense minister is defending Macron. “To say that we exclude nothing is neither weak nor escalatory,” French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu told the country’s lawmakers Tuesday.

On the ground Tuesday, Ukraine lost its third village within a week on the eastern front. A spokesperson for a grouping of Ukrainian forces said they withdrew from the villages of Sieverne and Stepove, which are both west of the town of Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region. On Monday, Ukrainian forces  retreated from the village of Lastochkyne , both sides confirmed.

Here's what else to know today:

  • Countries reject Macron's claims: Macron on Monday said sending Western troops into Ukraine "cannot be ruled out" after a meeting of European leaders in Paris. NATO itself rebuked his comments on Tuesday, telling CNN there are "no plans" to deploy combat troops on the ground in Ukraine.
  • US aid to Ukraine: US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called a White House meeting with Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and fellow congressional leaders " one of the most intense " he’d ever experienced, attributing the intensity to a sense of "urgency." It comes amid pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson to commit to sending aid to Ukraine.
  • Kremlin responds: Macron's comments also drew a sharp response from the Kremlin, which said conflict with Russia would be inevitable if Western nations sent troops into Ukraine.
  • Russia gas exports: Russia will impose a six-month ban on gasoline exports , starting on March 1, to offset increased demand as well as lower output while some refineries undergo repairs following Ukrainian strikes on some refineries, according to Russian news agencies.
  • Navalny funeral: Alexey Navalny’s team is struggling to find a venue to hold a farewell ceremony for the Russian opposition leader, with one funeral venue saying it was prohibited from working with them, his spokesperson Kira Yarmysh, revealed on Tuesday.
  • Zelensky in Saudi Arabia : Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Saudi Arabia for talks on his country’s "peace formula" with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he posted on social media Tuesday.

French lawmakers clash over Macron's comments on possibly sending troops to Ukraine 

From CNN's Niamh Kennedy in London 

French opposition lawmakers clashed with members of the government including Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Tuesday over President Emmanuel Macron saying he wouldn't rule out the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine. 

Macron's comments raised eyebrows from several European leaders who moved quickly to stress their opposition to any deployment. On top of that, the French president has also had to contend with fierce criticism from a number of opposition lawmakers at home who said a French deployment would constitute belligerency. 

Marine Le Pen, who is a key figure within the far-right National Rally party, initially criticized Macron's comments in a social media post on Tuesday, accusing the president of playing the "war leader." 

She later clashed with the French prime minister during a parliamentary session where she described the president's remarks as "extremely serious" and "another step" towards "co-belligerence."  

Le Pen said a deployment of French troops to Ukraine would be taking place despite France's "vital interests" not being "at stake." 

Attal highlighted Le Pen's prior ties to Russia and President Vladimir Putin, casting doubt on her credibility as someone who "simply refuses to recognize that there is a war being waged by an authoritarian country, a country where opponents are dying in jails, and that is Russia."

US will not send troops to Ukraine, State Department says in response to Macron comments

From CNN's Michael Conte

The US State Department reiterated that President Joe Biden has ruled out sending US troops to fight in Ukraine, in response to French President Emmanuel Macron saying sending Western troops to Ukraine “ cannot be ruled out .”

“Certainly, every country is free to speak to its own interest, but in addition to the president making clear that the US will not send troops to fight in Ukraine, the NATO secretary general has ruled out any NATO troops to fight in Ukraine,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller at a press briefing. 

He also called on Congress to pass additional funding for lethal aid to Ukraine. “We think that the path to victory for Ukraine right now is in the United States House of Representatives,” Miller said. 

US Senate majority leader calls Oval Office meeting "intense" as House speaker pressured over Ukraine aid

From CNN's Nikki Carvajal

President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with congressional leaders in the Oval Office of the White House on Tuesday in Washington, DC.

US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called a White House meeting with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and fellow congressional leaders "one of the most intense" he’d ever experienced, attributing the intensity to a sense of "urgency."

Schumer said that he — along with the president, the vice president, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell — “made it clear how vital this was to the United States.”

“We couldn't afford to wait a month or two months or three months. Because we would, in all likelihood, lose the war,” Schumer said.

It comes amid pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson to commit to sending aid to Ukraine. Schumer expressed frustration that Johnson was tying the aid package to the US southern border, saying Democrats "have a tough secure border plan." He said Johnson "tried to do (a) border (deal) for six months and couldn’t come up with a single Democratic vote." 

What Johnson says: The House speaker told reporters at the White House Tuesday that he believes Congress “must take care of America’s needs first,” before addressing foreign aid, including specifically addressing the situation at the border. Johnson has refused to hold a vote on a bipartisan Senate bill that includes funding for the border in addition to aid for Ukraine and Gaza.

Schumer also said that the group discussed how failure to support Ukraine could leave NATO fractured and turn allies away from US leadership. “The presidents of North Korea and Iran would be emboldened in thinking that the United States was this soft, fat country that lost its way and would take advantage,” Schumer added.

Schumer led a congressional delegation to Ukraine at the end of last week, and he said the trip left him "shaken" because Ukrainians are "fighting without arms against a brutal dictator."

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ukraine war safari

Photos show life in Ukraine before and after 2 years at war with Russia

In the two years since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, images show parts of the country attacked as barely recognizable.

Shopping centers, schools, hotels, homes and hospitals have been targets of Russian missile strikes, turning buildings into rubble and leaving nearly 3.7 million people displaced inside the country, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency.

According to the United Nations , at least 10,000 civilians, including more than 560 children, have been killed, and over 18,500 have been injured since the start of the invasion that began with the goal of overtaking Ukraine, a Western-aligned government intent on moving out of Moscow’s orbit.

See the destruction from above

Before-and-after satellite imagery provided by Maxar Technologies gives a bird's-eye view to the destruction across Ukraine.

CONTRIBUTING: Ramon Padilla , David Baratz and Janet Loehrke , USA TODAY

Watch CBS News

U.S. Army says Ukraine funding vital as it's "running out of money" fast for operations in Europe

By Charlie D'Agata, Steve Berriman

Updated on: February 22, 2024 / 12:01 PM EST / CBS News

Northeast Poland —  While the U.S. Congress wrestles over the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine , the U.S. Army in Europe tells CBS News that if the money isn't approved by American lawmakers soon, it could go broke.

"We are running out of money," Col. Martin O'Donnell, spokesperson for the U.S. Army's combined Europe and Africa command, told CBS News in Poland, where American forces have been taking part in massive exercises. "We've got enough funds right now, but if nothing changes, we expect to run out of money before summertime."

O'Donnell's blunt assessment was the first time a senior Army official has gone on camera to warn about the urgency of the Ukraine funding package, which is crucial not only to Ukraine's war effort , but to the U.S. Army's wider operations across two vast regions.

The Army has been picking up the tab for hundreds of millions of dollars contributed by the U.S. to Ukraine's war effort, including for drills like the one taking place now in Poland. But if the aid package isn't approved, O'Donnell said the U.S. Army in Europe in Africa would run out of money by May or June.

The U.S. Army oversees the training of Ukrainian forces and the transportation of equipment through Europe into Ukraine, in addition to training and equipping U.S. troops across the region. All of that could grind to a halt, he said, if the additional funding for Ukraine isn't approved.

"There's a lot of risk right now if we don't get money," O'Donnell said. 

Asked what would happen if the money did run out, he said: "Don't really want to think about it. Both in terms of what we do on the two continents [Europe and Africa], and both in terms of support to Ukraine. It's at risk."

The Europe and Africa command has "made adjustments within our own organization, but we haven't compromised our readiness yet, and we haven't compromised the support we've provided to Ukraine. We haven't gotten to that point yet," said O'Donnell. "But, like I said, that point is rapidly approaching, where potentially difficult decisions will have to be made."

col-martin-odonnell-us-army.jpg

He stressed that he was only speaking about the budget and impact on the U.S. Army's operations in Europe and Africa, and noted that, "sure, there's still an army behind us, and there's still a Department of Defense also behind us. So, certainly money can be reallocated, but again, there's only so much money out there."

The Army's warning about the money crunch comes amid heightened concern over Russia's intentions for military expansion, with the Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine about to enter its third year.

"I can't stress enough how important this assistance is for Ukraine. They need the assistance now," U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told CBS News on Thursday. "It's critical because, as we have seen many times in our history, if you don't stop a dictator they will ultimately keep going. The Ukrainians are fighting to defend their own territory. They are also fighting to defend the values that we hold dear. We need to stop Russia now in Ukraine, get the Russians out of Ukraine, so they don't get any second thoughts about going further westward and moving into NATO territory."

CBS News got exclusive access to the live-fire exercises taking place this week in northern Poland, right along one of the most sensitive borders separating democratic Europe from Russian territory.

us-army-poland-drill-suwalki-gap.jpg

Soldiers from the Army's 3rd Infantry Division, out of Fort Stewart, Georgia, were gaming out a scenario in which an unnamed adversary launched an attack on NATO's eastern flank. The operation for the soldiers was to recapture the ground and force that unnamed enemy to retreat.

CBS News watched as U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles charged through muddy fields, infantry troops spilled out and huge explosions rattled the ground as mine clearing weapons were put through their paces.

None of the soldiers or commanders taking part in the drill named the hypothetical "regional enemy" they were facing in the exercise, but the chosen location spoke volumes.

The exercise took place in the vicinity of the Suwalki Gap, a hilly area in northeast Poland that military planners consider NATO's Achilles heel.

suwalki-gap-map.jpg

To the west of the gap lies the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. To the east, Russia's close ally Belarus, where Russia has deployed troops and, purportedly, nuclear weapons . Only around 40 miles of NATO territory — the Suwalki Gap — separates the Russian footholds.

If the Kremlin were to launch an incursion into Poland, and manage to take the gap, it would effectively cut off the Baltic States from the rest of their NATO allies.

The soldiers taking part in the U.S. Army drills this week are preparing for any eventuality, 3rd Infantry Battalion Commander Lt. Col. Timothy Decker told CBS News.

"We remain engaged in our training to develop our tactical proficiency and remain a lethal force in deterring aggression," he said.

But the Army says its ability to continue providing that lethal force and deterrent against America's adversaries is now under threat, and it's counting on the members of the U.S. Congress to get over their differences and keep the cash flowing, and fast.

  • Vladimir Putin

Charlie D'Agata

Charlie D'Agata his a CBS News foreign correspondent based in the London bureau.

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ukraine war safari

Ukraine war frustrates safari operators

ukraine war safari

THE Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a major obstacle to the hunt for new markets in Eastern Europe by the Safari Operators Association of Zimbabwe (Soaz).

The war, which began in February this year, has had far-reaching effects, including the disruption of major supply chains globally.

Soaz chairperson Emmanuel Fundira told NewsDay Business yesterday that the conflict had an adverse impact on its efforts to expand its reach to the eastern Europe market.

“The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a huge setback to extending our markets to eastern Europe. The conflict has been a major hindrance to our efforts to make that area one of our source markets,” he said.

Fundira, however, noted that their failure to penetrate the eastern Europe market due to the obstacles they faced because of the conflict had been offset by the growth of the country’s traditional source markets which include Europe and the United States.

He said the performance of the sector this year saw a growth of 70% compared to  2019, the year before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic which crippled the entire tourism sector in 2020 and 2021.

“We can only compare with 2019 as the period 2020 to 2021 was decimated by the pandemic and so it will not be a like for like comparison. This year we experienced growth which is more than 70% of what we achieved in 2019,” he said.

Fundira projected that the sector will generate revenue of between US$70 million and US$75 million this season.

Keep Reading

  • Upheavals shake tourism industry . . .‘firms on the verge of collapse, Vic Falls now ghost town . . .’
  • Zimbabwe’s growing elephant problem

The safari sector in Zimbabwe has been on a recovery path since the lifting on the ban on sport-hunted elephants in 2018 by the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

The US-based organisation had suspended imports of sport-hunted African elephant in 2014.

Soaz said the tourism industry required at least US$100 million in fresh grants to stay afloat after the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the sector.

In October this year, Finance minister Mthuli Ncube unveiled a US$7,5 million Tourism Facilities/Services Development and Upgrading Revolving Fund meant to bolster the sector’s recovery.This comes after Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor John Mangudya granted the tourism sector 100% forex retention to assist the sector to recapitalise and enhance recovery from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in his Monetary Policy Statement last year.

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