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world tourism organization 2020

Tourism Can Help Lead the World to Recovery

About the author, zurab pololikashvili.

Zurab Pololikashvili is Secretary-General of the United Nations World Tourism Organization.

26 September 2020 T he COVID-19 pandemic has hit global tourism harder than any other major economic sector. In an effort to contain the spread of the virus and keep their citizens safe, countries around the world introduced restrictions on international travel, bringing tourism to a standstill almost overnight. Indeed, at the peak of this lockdown, the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) found that 100 per cent of global destinations had either closed their borders to tourists completely or introduced strict measures such as compulsory quarantine for new arrivals.

The sudden and unexpected fall in tourist arrivals also placed on hold the many social and economic benefits that tourism delivers. Globally, tourism supports one in ten jobs, and 80 per cent of the sector is made up of small businesses, including family operations. At the start of the crisis, UNWTO set out three possible scenarios for tourism in 2020, depending on when and how widely travel restrictions would be lifted. While it looks like we will avoid the worst-case scenario, we nevertheless expect global tourist arrivals to be down by as much as 70 per cent this year compared to 2019.

The knock-on effect will be significant. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that tourism’s woes will cause global GDP to decline by as much as 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent . Furthermore, the fall in tourist numbers will likely translate into as many as 120 million lost jobs. And, as always, the most vulnerable will suffer the most, including women and youth, for whom tourism is a leading source of opportunity, as well as those working in the informal economy.

Developing countries at greatest risk

No country has been left unscathed by the pandemic, including with regard to tourism. The effects, however, will be most profoundly felt in those destinations that are most reliant on tourism for livelihoods and economic well-being. For the majority of the world’s Small Island Developing States (SIDS), as well as the least developed countries, most notably within Africa, tourism is a lifeline. On average, tourism accounts for 30 per cent of export revenues for SIDS , and in some cases this is much higher. Indeed, in Palau—the newest UNWTO member State, having officially joined in 2019— tourism generates 90 per cent of all exports .

The 112th session of the UNWTO Executive Council, held in Tbilisi, Georgia, 16 September 2020. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

As the United Nations Secretary-General’s Policy Brief on “ COVID-19 and Transforming Tourism ” makes clear, the true cost of the pandemic’s impact on tourism cannot be measured in GDP or employment figures alone. Due to its unique cross-cutting nature, touching upon nearly every part of modern society, tourism is an essential contributor to the wider mission of the United Nations, including achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Again, as a leading employer of women, tourism leads the way in the journey towards gender equality. At the same time, tourism is a leading contributor to the promotion and protection of cultural and natural heritage, which is in jeopardy, including the ecosystems and wildlife that draw visitors to developing countries.

Building cooperation and a united response

Before the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, UNWTO recognized both the unique vulnerability of tourism and also the sector’s unique potential to drive wider societal recovery once the health crisis had been tackled. The visit of a UNWTO delegation to WHO headquarters in Geneva laid the foundations for the international, multi-organizational cooperation that has defined tourism’s response to an unprecedented challenge.

This, in turn, came on the back of heightened advocacy for tourism at the very highest political level, most notably at the European Commission at the start of the year, to make sure the sector is at the centre of the planned European New Green Deal, as well as at the most recent meetings of the G20 nations. This has allowed UNWTO to become an increasingly prominent voice within the United Nations. When the crisis hit, we were able to make sure that tourism was part of the conversation at both the governmental and United Nations levels.

The Global Tourism Crisis Committee, convened virtually in March and then meeting five times as the crisis evolved, brought together leading voices from member States and from the private sector. Only UNWTO was in a position to unite such a diverse sector. This Crisis Committee channelled these diverse voices and concerns into a clear plan of action, the UNWTO Recommendations for Recovery . These Recommendations have been embraced across the public and private sectors and now inform recovery plans in every global region.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili on an official visit to Saudi Arabia, 29 August 2020. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Sustainability takes centre stage

Central to the Recommendations is the principle that sustainability and inclusivity are at the heart of both the recovery process and the tourism sector that emerges out of this crisis. The pause in global tourism presents the global community with a chance to reassess its priorities. It also allows us to put the principles that are central to the work of UNWTO—namely that tourism works for people and planet, and should be open to all and benefit all—front and centre of everything we do.

The number one priority, however, is to build trust and confidence. Only by making people feel safe and encouraging them to travel again will the benefits that tourism offers start to return. UNWTO, as the specialized United Nations agency for tourism, must lead by example. To this end, as soon as it was safely possible, in-person visits to member States resumed: to the Canary Islands and Ibiza in Spain, to Italy, and to Saudi Arabia. The decision was also made to hold a hybrid Executive Council meeting, the first in-person meeting of the tourism sector and the United Nations to be held since the start of the pandemic. This brought together 170 delegates from 24 countries, sending a clear message that safe international travel is now possible in many parts of the world, thus providing a vital confidence boost for the sector.

As tourism restarts in many parts of the world, with growing numbers of countries easing travel restrictions, the sector’s position within the work of the United Nations has never been more relevant. UNWTO leads the restart guided by the principles of the Tbilisi Declaration , signed by our member States in Georgia at the close of the UNWTO Executive Council (15–17 September 2020). The Declaration recognizes the importance of tourism to livelihoods, to economic prosperity and opportunity, and to preserving our shared and unique culture. Signatories also committed to building back better, prioritizing sustainability and equality, and ensuring that, as tourism builds a brighter future, nobody is left behind.

The UN Chronicle  is not an official record. It is privileged to host senior United Nations officials as well as distinguished contributors from outside the United Nations system whose views are not necessarily those of the United Nations. Similarly, the boundaries and names shown, and the designations used, in maps or articles do not necessarily imply endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

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Chart of the day: These countries normally have the highest international tourist numbers

A tourist wearing a protective mask is seen near The Louvre as as the museum among top tourism landmarks closed their doors on Friday after France's government banned gatherings of more than 100 people to curb the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Paris, France March 14,2020. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes - RC2QJF9AHKJA

Some countries are re-opening their borders to international tourists, but it's predicted tourist numbers could fall by up to 80% in 2020. Image:  REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

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Stay up to date:.

  • Some countries are considering easing coronavirus lockdowns to reopen their borders.
  • International tourist numbers could fall by up to 80% in 2020, the World Tourism Organization says.
  • Pre-crisis, France was the world’s most visited country.

With lockdowns beginning to ease, many countries are starting to think about how to restart an engine vital to their economies: tourism.

The European Union is exploring how it can safely open its internal borders to welcome summer visitors. Australians may be allowed to travel to New Zealand from July. And some Caribbean islands, like Saint Lucia, will begin to reopen in June.

Even so, international tourist numbers could fall by up to 80% in 2020, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

But, in a normal year, where are the most visited destinations?

Have you read?

Here’s what travelling could be like after covid-19, these countries are making ‘travel bubbles’ for post-lockdown tourism, drones, disinfectant, distancing – europe’s beaches open up.

Global tourists.

France is the world’s number one destination for international tourists, the most recent figures from the UNWTO show. Almost 90 million people visited the country in 2018.

Spain isn’t far behind, with over 82 million visitors. The United States, China and Italy complete the top five.

The first global pandemic in more than 100 years, COVID-19 has spread throughout the world at an unprecedented speed. At the time of writing, 4.5 million cases have been confirmed and more than 300,000 people have died due to the virus.

As countries seek to recover, some of the more long-term economic, business, environmental, societal and technological challenges and opportunities are just beginning to become visible.

To help all stakeholders – communities, governments, businesses and individuals understand the emerging risks and follow-on effects generated by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Marsh and McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, has launched its COVID-19 Risks Outlook: A Preliminary Mapping and its Implications - a companion for decision-makers, building on the Forum’s annual Global Risks Report.

world tourism organization 2020

Companies are invited to join the Forum’s work to help manage the identified emerging risks of COVID-19 across industries to shape a better future. Read the full COVID-19 Risks Outlook: A Preliminary Mapping and its Implications report here , and our impact story with further information.

These countries are also among the hardest-hit by COVID-19 , with the US, Italy, France and Spain (along with the United Kingdom and Brazil) to date recording the world’s highest number of confirmed coronavirus deaths.

Lockdowns caused havoc in these economies – as they have in many others around the globe – and countries reliant on travel and tourism have seen “particularly large” disruptions, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Of the top five most visited nations, Spain in particular will be feeling the heat in this respect – international tourists spend about $81 billion in the country annually. That’s over 16% of its total exports , while the same figure is under 10% for France and Italy.

Those numbers pale in comparison to Saint Lucia, though, where international tourism receipts make up more than 81% of total exports.

Globally, the tourism industry accounts for 10% of GDP and jobs.

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Reviving tourism industry post-COVID-19: A resilience-based framework

Gagan deep sharma.

a University School of Management Studies, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Sector 16C, Dwarka, New Delhi, India

Asha Thomas

b Jagan Institute of Management Studies, Sector 5, Rohini, New Delhi, India

Justin Paul

c University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR, USA

The COVID-19 pandemic struck the tourism industry severely. Based on the review of 35 papers that studied the tourism industry in the wake of the pandemic, we propose a resilience-based framework for reviving the global tourism industry post-COVID-19. Our framework outlines four prominent factors for building resilience in the industry: government response, technology innovation, local belongingness, and consumer and employee confidence. We argue that using such inclusive resilience; the tourism industry may transform into a new global economic order characterized by sustainable tourism, society's well-being, climate action, and the involvement of local communities. We also offer directions for future research in the area.

1. Introduction

The outbreak of COVID-19 has posed critical health challenges worldwide. The pandemic is one of the most highly contagious outbreaks in recent human history, with more than 46 million cases and 1.2 million deaths (as on 31st October 2020) ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ). Given the high speed of transmission of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), governments worldwide have had no other option but to impose lockdowns. The spread of the virus has severely threatened lives, and measures such as lockdowns have posed a critical risk to the masses' livelihoods ( Sharma & Mahendru, 2020 ). The economic shocks of the pandemic are being observed across all industries and sectors worldwide. While some industries can adapt to digital platforms and continue their struggle for survival ( Mehrolia, Alagarsamy, & Solaikutty, 2020 ), a few industries have encountered unprecedented failures due to travel restrictions and social distancing, thereby finding it extremely difficult to survive the pandemic. Tourism is one industry that cannot hold its ground without the mobility of tourists. The fall of 22% in tourist numbers in the first quarter of 2020 (compared to the same quarter of 2019), and the threat of 60% to 80% fall throughout 2020 (compared to 2019), are some indications of the havoc that the COVID-19 pandemic can cause for the global tourism industry ( World Tourism Organization, 2020 ). Tourism is one of the most labour-intensive sectors. Such a slowdown for the industry may put millions of jobs at risk, thereby threatening to roll back the progress made on the front of sustainable development goals ( World Tourism Organization, 2020 ).

As indicated by Rivera (2020) , examining the hospitality and tourism industries in the pandemic context is of paramount importance. Researchers have started to focus on this area, yet there is only limited work available so far. A search query on the Web of Science database yielded no more than 45 results that studied the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry. These studies are also observed to be all over the place, which poses a directional challenge for scholarship in the area. Such variance in studies fails to significantly enrich the body of knowledge, thereby proving to be of limited use to policymakers and practitioners.

The WHO (2017) recommends rapid reviews to provide timely evidence for policymakers to respond to the emergency. Since the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to be particularly fatal for the tourism industry, a rapid review of the available literature is highly recommended. Such a review will not merely consolidate the findings of the existing studies but also provide insights and directions for future researchers to focus on the appropriate problems plaguing the sector.

The above discussion drives our motivation to perform a review of the challenges being faced by the global tourism industry in the wake of COVID-19. The research questions for our study are set as follows:

To observe the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry by studying the emerging body of knowledge in the field;

To suggest a policy framework that enables market players and governments worldwide to cope with the challenges emerging for the global tourism industry from the outbreak of the pandemic.

Out of the 47 papers found on the Web of Science database, we discovered that 10 do not meet the inclusion criteria (detailed in the methodology section). We rigorously reviewed 37 papers to synthesize their findings and propose a framework for further advancement of the scholarship in this area. Our results reveal that the pandemic has created severe roadblocks for the tourism industry, and the way ahead seems to be rocky. We learn that this challenge may open the doors for local tourism, eco-tourism, and sustainable tourism, which have long been part of the discussion but have failed to take any tangible shape so far. Four significant themes emerge from our work, namely, sustainable tourism, climate action, transformation to the new global economic order, and resilience. We make a significant theoretical and practical contribution to the field by suggesting a coping-up mechanism, which revolves around resilience. Our framework includes resilience from market players, governments, non-government agencies, and all other stakeholders.

The remainder of our paper is organized as follows: The next section discusses the methodology of our work, the third section presents the thematic discussion, the fourth section highlights the future research agenda, and the last section concludes by outlining the policy framework to deal with the challenges emerging from COVID-19 for the tourism industry.

2. Methodology

The systematic reviewing methodology is followed in this paper. The advent of this methodology in the field of management is recent ( Paul & Criado, 2020 ; Tranfield, Denyer, & Smart, 2003 ). This methodology is driven by its merits in the form of systematic, transparent, and replicable review ( Cook, Greengold, Ellrodt, & Weingarten, 1997 ; Cook, Mulrow, & Haynes, 1997 ; Hao & al, 2019 ; Wolf, Shea, & Albanese, 2001 ). It is also inspired by prior review articles ( Bansal, Garg, & Sharma, 2019 ; Dhaliwal, Singh, & Paul, 2020 ; Gilal, Zhang, Paul, & Gilal, 2019 ; Jain, Sharma, & Mahendru, 2019 ; Paul & Feliciano-Cestero, 2020 ; Paul & Mas, 2020 ; Rosado-Serrano, Paul, & Dikova, 2018 ; Talan & Sharma, 2019 ; Thomas & Paul, 2019 ).

Records were searched employing the Web of Science database. The usage of this database ensures a consistent standard for the articles. Using keywords like “COVID-19,” “tourism,” “hospitality,” and “coronavirus,” we found 47 records. Since the problem of COVID-19 pertains to 2020, the records are fewer in number. Nevertheless, given the mandate of the WHO for rapid reviews, we consider it worthwhile to conduct a review in this pivotal field. These records were then screened through titles and abstracts. It was discovered that 37 papers fell within our theme, while the remaining 10 did not. These 37 papers were selected for further analysis. These papers are shown in Table 1 .

Reviewed papers.

To arrive at the appropriate themes studied in the selected papers, we ran a cluster analysis on these papers' keywords through the VOS viewer project developed by Leiden University, the Netherlands. Through this approach, we came up with four clusters, namely, sustainable tourism, climate action, transformation to the new global economic order, and resilience. We use these clusters as the themes for our work, and group the keywords of the 35 records within these themes, which drive the thematic discussion of our study.

This analysis leads to the development of three clusters as detailed in Table 2 .

Keywords and clusters.

3. Thematic discussion

Fig. 1 exhibits the prominent keywords clustered into three groups. First, the focus of research has been around the future of tourism, wherein the body of knowledge is concerned about the future of tourism sector, specifically in the context of communities and the cause of sustainability. Second, the scholarship is engaged in deliberating on the issues of resilience, mobility, degrowth, and sustainable tourism. Finally, there is an ongoing discussion around geopolitics, climate change, and transformation to the new situation through a reset of the sector. We use these keywords to draw two major themes, comprising four sub-themes, as exhibited in Fig. 2 . This thematic discussion is presented below.

Fig. 1

Clusters of keywords used by the reviewed literature.

Fig. 2

Thematic framework.

3.1. Resilience

The business world recognizes resilience as a crisis management tool/strategy for business stability and adaptability to all types of risks, during natural disasters and emergencies. Furthermore, business resilience is linked to the organization's ability to adapt to the environment and new circumstances to mitigate the effects of the incident ( Supardi, Kudus, Hadi, & Indonesia, 2020 ). Resilience strategies require coordination, various crisis management techniques, good relationships (among all stakeholders), a comprehensive network, recognition of risks and opportunities, and timely and scalable intervention ( Alves, Lok, Luo, & Hao, 2020 ; Fitriasari, 2020 ). The literature on resilience identifies proactive, absorptive/adaptive, reactive, or dynamic attributes of resilience ( Supardi et al., 2020 ).

Historically, the tourism industry has quickly bounced back after disasters, pandemics, and epidemics like Ebola, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Local, regional, or national governments are aiding in the industry's recovery by luring investors through tax breaks, lenient land-use rules, etc. ( Brouder, 2020 ; Ioannides & Gyimóthy, 2020 ). Before international travel can resume, domestic tourism will boost the resumption of the tourism industry in the wake of the pandemic. Other factors, including technological resilience, local belongingness, and customer and employee confidence, may help build industry resilience, which is the need of the hour.

3.1.1. Governments' response to COVID-19: A new outlook

Businesses across industries are looking forward to “business as usual”, and the tourism industry is no exception. All the industries are banking largely upon “government stimulus packages and interventions” to improve their productivity. For instance, TUI, the world's most prominent multinational tourism organization, is taking the UK and German governments' aid and has announced cost reduction in its operations across the world ( Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020 ). The government has become a significant role player in the economy of tourism ( Table 3 ). This has resulted in the re-nationalization of airlines, tourism firms, and networks like airports. This is something different in comparison to earlier crises, which created curiosity in research and institutions and had no “policy impact,” particularly in the tourism industry ( Hall et al., 2020 ). Tsionas (2020) discusses post-COVID-19 problems and mentions that “opening at limited capacity” of almost 33% is a good option. He proposes that government subsidies would be needed to support such lower capacities. There has been massive government intervention in the working and operation of the tourism industry during the COVID-19 crisis ( Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020 ). Discussing Macao's reaction to the pandemic in a “3-wave analogy,” McCartney (2020) observes that the wave of recovery will push toward “public-private partnership and cooperation.” In future, the effect of such governmental response on tourism will create a novel outlook.

Government response to COVID-19. (Source : OEDC, 2020)

3.1.2. Technology innovation

Technology is a major force in creating flexibility in the tourism industry ( Hall et al., 2020 ). Disasters help in speeding up changes in technology. During COVID-19, people have taken massive aid from technology experts. There are instances of robots replacing people, applications on mobiles being employed to track people's contacts, or Big Data analytics forecasting COVID-19 spread among the masses. Robot, automation technologies, and artificial intelligence can reduce cost, improve liquidity, and enhance flexibility. This will also help maintain social distancing ( Assaf & Scuderi, 2020 ; Thomas & Chopra, 2020 ), as technology can connect people without any physical contact. Thus, technology can handle pandemic-specific problems such as screening travellers, discovering COVID-19 cases and tracking contacts, ensuring online education for students, etc. ( Hall et al., 2020 ). Many reports show a surge in the public's trust in technology, their readiness to connect, and their willingness to change their attitudes toward technology. People have now started ignoring privacy issues to get a more significant technology benefit ( Stankov et al., 2020 ). Gretzel et al. (2020) has presented the “six transformative e-tourism research pillars” for bringing in changes in e-tourism by proactively using IT resources for short-term and long-term purposes.

3.1.3. Local belongingness

The global aspect seems broken that calls for local belongingness to come to the rescue ( Brouder et al., 2020 ; Chang et al., 2020 ). During the pandemic and post-COVID-19, domestic tourism is poised to dominate the scene with most travellers coming from nearby areas ( Haywood, 2020 ). In many places, domestic travel is limited to visiting friends and relatives, but this will expand to leisure tourism soon. International travel will gradually revive when the borders open and international flights are permitted to operate without any hindrances ( Baum & Hai, 2020 ). Many countries and regions have restricted movements by imposing bans and other stringent requirements on entry and exit, which has subtly impacted the global tourism industry. According to Higgins-Desbiolles (2020) and Baum and Hai (2020) , the right to travel or enjoy gainful employment in the hospitality and tourism industry will not be allowed in the near-immediate future. “Tourism bubbles,” or local links built during the disaster, will act as a flexible plan. Future travel will depend on combined self-care, such as the suggestion to open the Trans-Tasman bubble between Australia and New Zealand ( Carr, 2020 ), or the potential fast-tracking of immigration clearance between the Republic of Korea and China ( Mostafanezhad et al., 2020 ). The feeling of belongingness among locals will dictate terms for the revival of the tourism industry.

3.1.4. Consumer and employee confidence

It is essential to gain consumer confidence to restart the halted industry of tourism. Learning from disaster planning and fighting the drive to turn away from failures experienced in the future are the critical pathways to be followed ( Rivera, 2020 ). The revival of the tourism industry will depend on boosting confidence in travelling and lessening the perception of risk involved ( Assaf & Scuderi, 2020 ). The impact of COVID-19 influences consumers' perception of tourism product and services ( Yu et al., 2020 ). Mao et al. (2020) focuses on human capital and gaining employee confidence.

3.2. Transformation to the new global economic order

Transformations like restarting, reorganizing, and assimilating the tourism industry according to the latest standards and rules are required to revive the industry ( Lew et al., 2020 ). The renewal will be impacted by the government's response to climate change and the need for a carbon-free economy. After the pandemic, the global economic and political systems will encompass changing patterns concerning climate change mitigation, sustainable tourism, local communities, and society's well-being.

3.2.1. Sustainable tourism

The present times are the most appropriate to promote a sustainable and equitable tourism industry ( Benjamin et al., 2020 ). As per Carr (2020) , original cultural sites suggest happiness, physical condition, environmental responsibility, and conventional ecological information. Such sites form the future of “cultural sustainability” and it is essential to manage these prudently for the development of the economy. In the aftermath of COVID-19, the tourism industry is bound to be reorganized based on actual planning and not just paperwork. The industry needs to be oriented toward education, environmental and social justice, and racial healing. There is a need for wary people (For instance, tourists, local communities, SMEs, Government) to take advantage of the present grave situation as it will allow more tourist experiences. The industry's service providers need to be encouraged to push a new demand by changing their unsustainable product offers. Such measures can connect, support, and take care of the whole tourism industry to everyone's advantage ( Stankov et al., 2020 ). The market players should also confront the means and systems that will prevent and transform harmful and weak tourism ( Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020 ). There is an essential requirement for a charter for setting up a stable and sustainable tourism industry. There is a disconnect between what UNWTO (World Tourism Organization) is preaching (sustainability) and what is exercising (growth expansion). These disconnects need to be understood and repaired before considering tourism's future ( Brouder et al., 2020 ; Nepal, 2020 ). The ongoing impermanent process of deglobalization has presented the tourism industry with a unique opportunity to recreate sustainability by leaving aside the “dark sides” of recent years, such as environmental deprivation, economic abuse, or congestion ( Niewiadomski, 2020 ). Sustainability is a continuous procedure to attain positive outcomes and is defined by changing beliefs, wishes, information, skills, and public awareness ( Galvani et al., 2020 ). Expert knowledge and experience ( Chang et al., 2020 ; Prideaux et al., 2020 ) need to be put into practice for shifting toward sustainable tourism.

3.2.2. Well-being of society

The South American concept Buen Vivir was examined by Everingham and Chassagne (2020) . This is a non-Western alternative to neoliberal capitalism for moving tourism priorities from economic growth to the welfare of, and meaningful connections in, the society at large and covering the ecological balance. The impact of COVID-19 is such that how people live and travel has changed completely. Preferences are now shifting toward connecting and shopping locally. The virus has offered an opportunity to the tourism industry to recreate and contribute to society's welfare ( Benjamin et al., 2020 ; Rowen, 2020 ). Life, health, environment, etc., are the focused areas during disasters. According to Benjamin et al. (2020) , it is essential to select a program that encourages sustainable and equitable development where people can acknowledge the planet and shift their current unsustainable views on tourism. In addition, Benjamin et al. (2020) point out that the change should concentrate on equity. This will necessitate positive and slow changes relating to systems' interconnectedness, where economic growth is not considered a default parameter of social and ecological well-being ( Cheer, 2020 ). The scholarship in the field of tourism needs to acknowledge tourism as an industry with a focus on societal well-being ( Benjamin et al., 2020 ).

3.2.3. Climate action

The pandemic's effect is worsening due to global climate changes ( Sharma et al., 2020 ; Sharma & Mahendru, 2020 ; Sharma, Talan, Srivastava, Yadav, & Chopra, 2020 ). Crossley (2020) studies the connection between pandemic and climate change and explores how the damage done to the environment can be repaired and can be attached to ecological grief. Emotional dynamics can further help understand tourists' behavior, covering the constant “attitude-behavior” gap concerning sustainable tourism. COVID-19 offers an opportunity to tackle the impact of climate change by shifting from the present model of “high resource consumption” to one that is “environmentally friendly” ( Gössling et al., 2020 ; Prideaux et al., 2020 ).

3.2.4. Local communities – the centres of transformation.

Local communities are the centres of transformation for the tourism industry during this pandemic. There may be future disagreements in local areas as tourists take the help of these local communities and governments for their business. Changes being considered by tourist destinations relating to modifications in a carbon-free economy are significant (Rideau et al., 2020). Changes at the local level may help restore neocolonial and neoliberal biases ( Everingham & Chassagne, 2020 ; Renaud, 2020 ; Tremblay-Huet, 2020 ).

Since the tourism industry has come to a halt and social distancing acts are relevant, even small-scale local-level activity is considered harmful. People have to think about the local community at large ( Lapointe, 2020 ). According to Renaud (2020) , the industry of cruise tourism should approve a “local mobility” model, which means that large cruise ships will be forbidden, but a fleet of smaller ships will be allowed. During the pandemic, social unity, self-sacrifice, and a sympathetic attitude are as significant as wearing a face mask to protect oneself and others. Post-COVID-19 times will allow service providers to rethink and reset the tourism industry for the future. There is a need for a “community-centered tourism framework” with responsible approaches to reset, redescribe, and refamiliarize the tourism industry in the interest of local communities. A deeper understanding of remote communities' challenges and acts may help transform the sector ( Tremblay-Huet, 2020 ). Some research studies consider these times as a defining moment for resetting the industry of tourism ( Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020 ). Developed countries are considering domestic or “proximity tourism” based on local thought and local acting theory.

4. A resilience-based framework for the new global economic order

Based on literature review, we propose a resilience-based framework for the new global economic order ( Fig. 3 ). This framework stems from the challenges posed by COVID-19 and the containment measures (such as lockdown) to the global tourism industry. The advisories issued to the tourists by various governments have further added fuel to the fire, resulting in the decline of revenues ( World Tourism Organization, 2020 ). The tourism industry seems to have moved from “over-tourism” to “non-tourism” at once ( Gössling et al., 2020 ). The increasing unemployment in other sectors of the global economy will also reflect in the number of tourist visits in the coming years. Segments of the tourism industry, including airlines, hospitality, sports events, restaurants, and cruises, are bound to be hammered by the pandemic. The proposed resilience-based framework can help transform the industry both during and after COVID-19.

Fig. 3

Resilience-based framework for the new global economic order.

Organizational studies are focusing on sustainable change deal with resilience and deployment of adaptive capabilities by providing insights into recovery responses. Crises and emergencies such as COVID-19 also extend global visibility and understanding. This pandemic will contribute to creating new business models, which will essentially determine the industry's chances of survival by transforming it into a much more sustainable form. The tourism industry needs to demonstrate resilience from several sides. We broadly propose that three segments, namely, governments, market players, and local communities, need to get their act together to lend resilience to the industry. Technological innovations need to rise to a higher level for speeding up creations in tourism and hospitality. Artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of things (IoT), and technologies relating to location, navigation, drones, and robotics, are a few areas that need enhancements. This can promote flexible thinking within the tourism industry. This pandemic has compelled industry leaders to explore and analyze other better-suited technologies to reboot the industry and regain consumer confidence. Existing literature notes that the tourism industry has previously been quick to bounce back from the shocks of epidemics, pandemics, and global crises. However, governments realize that the shock of COVID-19 is unique since it is not possible to market the unsold capacity in coming years, causing a permanent setback for the industry. Governments should strive to build an atmosphere in which they attract investors through a variety of opportunities in the prevalent spirit of neoliberalism, such as offering tax breaks, relaxing strict land-use laws, etc. ( Brouder, 2020 ). Governments may promote the local embeddedness of tourism businesses to improve the element of belongingness. Supporting these arguments, Di Domenico, Haugh, and Tracey (2010) observe that local economies react to crises by working together and through social work, and Johannisson and Olaison (2007) note that rural firms have better prospects of recovery than their urban counterparts. Henceforth, the support from the government, coupled with local belongingness, may pave the way for the transformation of the tourism industry. The challenge is different for large-scale multinational players in the industry, focusing on local supply chains to minimize the costs. They may need to review their activities and rely on narrower and sub-national supply chains. This may include sourcing more resources locally, be it food, raw materials, service providers, or the composition of the workforce. Post-pandemic times may entail a long-term decrease in the appeal of certain growth spots now deemed too risky. Such a situation may augur well for less popular, less populated regions by providing them the opportunity to improve their appeal as potential tourism destinations.

Resilience from all sides of the value-chain may transform the tourism industry into the new global economic order characterized by sustainable tourism, climate action, societal well-being, and involvement of local communities. Studies have observed that the tourism industry indirectly contributes to pandemics in multiple ways, including food wastages leading to industrialized food production ( Hall & Gössling, 2013 ), human interference with wildlife and deforestation ( Barlow et al., 2016 ; Lade et al., 2020 ), and climate change conditions ( Scott, Hall, & Gössling, 2019 ). The lockdown in many countries and the adoption of significant restrictions on borders has also drastically affected the tourism economy worldwide. The movement from “over-tourism” to “under-tourism” is bound to reverse the scene of climate change to a large extent ( Hall & Gössling, 2013 ). COVID-19 is leading to some positive outcomes for the tourism industry. Declined demand in the aviation industry is already causing airlines to phase out outdated aircraft. Restrictions on overseas travel for international students, business travellers, political leaders, etc., are leading to increased leverage from video-conferencing ( Banister & Stead, 2004 ; Cohen, Hanna, & Gössling, 2018 ). These changes are bound to reorient the global tourism industry in a “sustainable” way, which focuses more on inclusive development, rather than the abstract notion of “growth.” Carbon footprint reductions may gain more traction worldwide, as is already seen across main tourist destinations. Similarly, the mobility of visitors could transform significantly, not only in the immediate future but over a long period. The relentless neophilia and the disturbing desire for (often irresponsible) exploration in distant places may be replaced by recreation and travel much closer to home.

5. Future research agenda

COVID-19 has triggered unprecedented casualties for mankind in life-changing circumstances. The shock and effect of this pandemic are so strong that research work across all fields is subject to pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 classifications. The post-COVID-19 research is bound to be characterized by economic, environmental, and social setbacks, and the policy suggestions to counter those. Given the tourism industry's sensitivity to this pandemic situation, the body of knowledge in the field of tourism needs some quick and sound work to prepare for the future. Following most downloaded review articles ( Dhaliwal et al., 2020 ; Paul & Benito, 2018 ), we provide directions for future research in this section to set up an interesting future research agenda for the research in the tourism industry in the post-COVID-19 period. It is important to examine how businesses can translate this crisis chaos into transformative innovation. Never before has tourism research felt the need to hold its purpose as much as today.

Post-crisis tourism research must align academic and corporate interests. We present the future research agenda in two segments. One, based on the gaps in the existing literature, we present the research questions for tourism research to explore different sub-topics in the context of COVID-19. Two, we present a research agenda to test our resilience-based framework ( Table 4 ) and derive propositions which can be used as testable hypotheses in future studies by others.

Themes and research questions for future scholarship in tourism and COVID-19.

Future researchers may test the resilience-based framework in line with Fig. 3 . Using the tenets included in the resilience framework, we derive propositions in this study which can be used as either research questions or hypotheses in future studies.

Tourism industry has to resort to internal measures, including technology innovation and building consumer and employee confidence, to build resilience to fight COVID-19;

External factors, including government measures and local belongingness, significantly contribute to the tourism industry's quest for resilience to revive from the COVID-19 shock;

Resilience strategies based on internal and external factors mediate the revival of the tourism industry from the shock of COVID-19 by transforming it to the new global economic order, which comprises sustainable tourism, the well-being of society, mitigating climate change, and strengthening of local communities.

These topical ideations can be actualized by applying versatile methodologies. The case-study method is by far the most prominently used method in tourism research in the context of a crisis. However, as suggested by most of the related works ( Haywood, 2020 ; Nepal, 2020 ; Rivera, 2020 ; Tsionas, 2020 ), it would be advisable to employ conceptual, quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods to inform the questions about the contemporary tourism industry.

6. Conclusion

The tourism industry was seen as a major cause and carrier of the novel coronavirus that triggered the outbreak of COVID-19. The unsustainable practices of the industry didn't help the cause of sustainable living worldwide. The pandemic has nearly brought the global tourism industry to a halt. All stakeholders in the industry must work together to make the industry sufficiently resilient to deal with the crisis. Based on the studies conducted to understand the tourism industry in the context of COVID-19, we propose a resilience-based framework for the industry. Through our framework, we argue that with the help of the resilient approach from governments, market players, technology innovators, and the workforce employed in the industry, the tourism sector may end up evolving in a much more sustainable way post-pandemic. The involvement of local communities is going to be immensely critical in this journey, as the restrictions on international travel may stay longer than anticipated. Such developments would widen not only the base of the tourism industry but also present opportunities for less-developed tourism spots to grow further. Large-scale tourism players would need a reboot to survive in post-pandemic times. Still, acting in line with our resilience-based framework, small-scale players certainly can emerge victorious and ensure the well-being of the society at large while also facilitating sustainable tourism.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

The authors declare that no funding were received for this research.

Biographies

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Gagan Deep Sharma is an Associate Professor at the University School of Management Studies, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, New Delhi, India. His fields of research interest includes Systematic reviewing, Sustainable development, Resliience-based strategy, Neuroeconomics, and Behavioural economics.

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Asha Thomas is Assistant Professor at Jagan Institute of Management Studies (JIMS), New Delhi. Her areas of research interest include knowledge management, Organizational behavior, Marketing. She has about 12 years of experience in teaching, as well as over 3 years of experience in IT and Telecom Industry. She is currently pursuing Doctorate program as a Part-time Research Scholar from the prestigious Delhi Technological University. She has several national and international research papers to her credit. She has also presented papers in National and International Conferences. She also serves as reviewer for several top international journals.

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Justin Paul , serves as Editor-in-chief of International Journal of Consumer studies and as an Associate Editor of Journal of Business Research. He is a full professor of PHD & MBA programs, University of Puerto Rico, USA. He holds three honorary titles as ‘Distinguished Professor’ with three reputed universities- Indian Institute of Management (IIM—K) and SIBM, Pune and MS university in TN state of India. He has published over 100 articles in SSCI listed journals. He is an author of 8 books. He has served as a faculty member with University of Washington and Rollins college, Florida, USA. His website is drjustinpaul.com.

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world tourism organization 2020

World Tourism Barometer: September 2023

International tourism maintains strong momentum with 84% recovery up to July 2023

world tourism organization 2020

Travel demand continued to show remarkable resilience and sustained recovery, amid economic and geopolitical challenges. An estimated 700 million tourists travelled internationally from January to July 2023, 43% higher than in 2022 although 16% less compared to 2019.

International tourism is experiencing a rapid recovery in Asia and the Pacific where arrivals climbed to 61% of pre-pandemic levels this period after the reopening of many destinations and source markets earlier this year. The reopening of China and other Asian markets is expected to continue boosting travel in the region and to other parts of the world.

According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker , both international air capacity and passenger demand recovered about 84% of pre-pandemic levels through June 2023. However, the extreme weather-related events that occurred over recent months as well as the critical challenges of managing increasing tourism flows underline the need to build a more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient sector.

world tourism organization 2020

Read more on the UNWTO Tourism Barometer (September 2023 excerpt) here .

About the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer is a publication of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) that monitors short-term tourism trends regularly to provide global tourism stakeholders with up-to-date analysis of international tourism. The information is updated several times a year and includes an analysis of the latest data on tourism destinations (inbound tourism) and source markets (outbound tourism). The Barometer also includes three times a year Confidence Index based on the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts survey, which provides an evaluation of recent performance and short-term prospects for international tourism.

Source: UNWTO Press Release Barometer September 19th, 2023 (Madrid)

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Impact assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak on international tourism

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Impact assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak on international tourism

International tourism recovered 63% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with europe and the middle east in the lead.

  • International tourism saw stronger than expected results in 2022, backed by large pent-up demand and the lifting or relaxation of travel restrictions in a large number of countries.
  • Over 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022, double those in 2021 though still 37% fewer than in 2019.
  • International tourism recovered 63% of pre-pandemic levels, in line with UNWTO’s scenarios published in May 2022.
  • Europe, the world’s largest destination region, recorded 585 million arrivals in 2022 to reach nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels (-21% over 2019). The Middle East enjoyed the strongest relative increase across regions in 2022 with arrivals climbing to 83% of pre-pandemic numbers (-17% versus 2019).
  • Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65% of its pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions.
  • By subregions, Western Europe (87%) and the Caribbean (84%) came closest to their pre-pandemic levels.
  • The year 2022 saw a strong rebound in tourism spending, resulting in the recovery of pre-pandemic levels in income across many destinations.
  • Looking ahead, international tourism is set to consolidate its recovery in 2023 , backed by pent-up demand, particularly from Asia and the Pacific as destinations and markets open up.
  • The UNWTO Panel of Experts survey indicates that 72% of respondents expect better performance in 2023. However, most experts (65%) also believe international tourism will not return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later.
  • Based on UNWTO’s scenarios for 2023, i nternational tourist arrivals could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year , with Europe and the Middle East expected to reach those levels. However, important risks remain ahead, especially economic and geopolitical.
  • Tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel close to home in response to the challenging economic environment.

International Tourist Arrivals by Region

UNWTO panel of experts, highlights survey January 2023

  • The survey conducted in January 2023 shows a slight uptick in the UNWTO Confidence Index for the period September-December 2022, reflecting improved confidence levels in the last months of the year. On a scale of 0 to 200, the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts rated the period September-December 2022 with a score of 123, above the expectations expressed in the September survey ahead of that 4-month period (111).
  • Expectations for the period January-April 2023 indicate cautious optimism, with still large pent-up demand though in a context of uncertainty and volatility. Some 51% of
  • Respondents expect better (38%) or much better (13%) performance, while almost half see equal performance (26%) or worse (20%). The UNWTO Confidence Index shows a slight improvement (119) in January-April 2023 compared to prospects expressed for the previous period of September-December (111).
  • The challenging economic environment including high inflation and the spike in oil prices, as well as the fears of a global recession, continues to be the main factor weighing on the recovery of tourism.
  • Furthermore, continued uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, health challenges related to COVID-19, as well as workforce shortages also represent downside risks.

UNWTO outlook 2023: prospects for international tourism

  • Based on UNWTO’s scenarios for 2023, international tourist arrivals could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year , with Europe and the Middle East expected to reach those levels.
  • After a strong rebound in 2022, international tourism could climb close to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 driven by strong pent-up demand and the reestablishment of travel flows in most parts of the world, including the re-opening of several destinations and source markets in Asia, particularly China.
  • The complete recovery remains subject to certain risks like a potential economic slowdown amid high inflation and rapid interest hikes, which have increased financial costs and debt levels.
  • Higher food and energy prices result in lower purchasing power and weaker consumer confidence, which could weigh on travel demand in 2023, specially in terms of spending. Travellers may increasingly seek value for money and take trips closer to home in response to the challenging economic environment. The Russian offensive in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions in North-East Asia could also disrupt the normalization of travel.

International Tourist Arrivals scenarios 2023

Tourism Data

Panel evaluation and prospects, what are the main factors weighing on the recovery of international tourism, when do you expect international tourism to return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels in your country, tourism: one of the hardest hit sectors amid the covid-19 pandemic.

  • The pandemic caused an unprecedented disruption to tourism, with a massive fall of international demand amid widespread lockdowns and travel restrictions put in place by countries in order to contain the spread of the virus.
  • This resulted in huge economic and social impacts, placing over 100 million direct tourism jobs at risk, especially in micro, small and medium sized enterprises (MSMEs) which represent 80% of the sector and employ a high share of women and young people.
  • International travel plunged by 72% in 2020 , the worst year on record for tourism , resulting in 1.1 billion fewer international tourists worldwide (overnight visitors), putting the number of travellers back to levels of 30 years ago.
  • International tourism experienced a  5% increase   in 2021 , 22 million more international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) compared to 2020 (427 million versus 405 million). However, international arrivals were still  71% below the pre-pandemic year of 2019 .
  • International tourism rebounded moderately during the second half of 2021. The uplift in demand was driven by increased traveler confidence amid rapid progress on vaccinations and the easing of entry restrictions in many destinations. However, the pace of recovery remained slow and uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveler confidence. 
  • Europe and the Americas  recorded the strongest results in 2021 compared to 2020 (+19% and +17% respectively), but still both 63% below pre-pandemic levels.

Unprecedented Impact from COVID-19

Source: UNWTO, * Pre-pandemic year, ** Preliminary results

International tourist arrivals

2020 -72% vs 2019 -1.1 billion  

2021 -71% vs 2019 -1 billion

+6% vs 2020 +24 million  

Export revenues from international tourism

2020 -US$ 1.1 trillion 2021 -US$ 1.0 trillion

Tourism Direct GDP

2020 -US$ 1.8 trillion

2021 -US$ 1.4 trillion

  • The coronavirus pandemic caused a 72% decline in international tourist arrivals in 2020 and 71% in 2021, compared to 2019. This represents a loss of 2.1 billion international arrivals in both years combined.
  • As a result, export revenues from international tourism plunged 63% in 2020 and 61% in 2021 (real terms) which amounts to a combined loss of US$ 2.1 trillion in this two-year period.

Changes in Consumer Trends

Short-lived trends or here to stay, related links.

  • The Economic Contribution of Tourism and the Impact of COVID-19
  • UNWTO World Tourism Barometer
  • UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard
  • 2020: A year in review

IMAGES

  1. WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATIONS 2020

    world tourism organization 2020

  2. Impact assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak on international tourism

    world tourism organization 2020

  3. World Tourism Organization General Assembly Opens With Sustainability

    world tourism organization 2020

  4. President's Remarks on World Tourism Day 2020

    world tourism organization 2020

  5. Organizația Mondială a Turismului (OMT) anunță că sunt deschise 53% din

    world tourism organization 2020

  6. The UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard

    world tourism organization 2020

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    As tourism slowly restarts in an increasing number of countries, the World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism) has developed the first comprehensive tourism recovery tracker worldwide, monitoring a number of relevant indicators throughout the recovery of tourism. ... Export revenues from international tourism dropped 62% in 2020 and 59% in 2021 ...

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    Tourism Statistics. Get the latest and most up-to-date tourism statistics for all the countries and regions around the world. Data on inbound, domestic and outbound tourism is available, as well as on tourism industries, employment and complementary indicators. All statistical tables available are displayed and can be accessed individually ...

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    All Regions. 28 Jan 2021. Global tourism suffered its worst year on record in 2020, with international arrivals dropping by 74% according to the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Destinations worldwide welcomed 1 billion fewer international arrivals in 2020 than in the previous year, due to an unprecedented fall in demand ...

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    International tourism back to levels of 30 years ago. -74%. Loss of international tourist arrivals. Loss in international tourism receipts. US$ 1.3 trillion. International tourism could plunge to levels of. 1990s. Estimated loss in global GDP. over US$ 2 trillion.

  10. A Joint Statement on Tourism and COVID-19

    As the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) continues to develop, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) are committed to working together in guiding the travel and tourism sectors' response to COVID-19.On 30 January 2020, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of COVID-19 to be a Public ...

  11. Tourism: 2020 Vision

    Published: 1998. eISBN: 978-92-844-0268-7. Abstract: The Tourism 2020 Vision programme of research and forecasting represents a continuation of the WTO's work in the area of tourism forecasts initiated in 1990 with the general objectives: •To identify the key trends in tourism supply and demand worldwide and by region; and •their impact ...

  12. WTO

    The 2020 Annual Report provides a comprehensive account of the WTO's activities in 2019 and early 2020. The Report begins with a message from WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo and a brief overview of the past year. This is followed by in-depth accounts of the WTO's main areas of activity over the past 12 months. Spotlights highlight major WTO events and initiatives.

  13. What is the most visited country in the world?

    Image: World Tourism Organization via the World Bank. France is the world's number one destination for international tourists, the most recent figures from the UNWTO show. Almost 90 million people visited the country in 2018. Spain isn't far behind, with over 82 million visitors. The United States, China and Italy complete the top five.

  14. Reviving tourism industry post-COVID-19: A resilience-based framework

    The advisories issued to the tourists by various governments have further added fuel to the fire, resulting in the decline of revenues (World Tourism Organization, 2020). The tourism industry seems to have moved from "over-tourism" to "non-tourism" at once (Gössling et al., 2020). The increasing unemployment in other sectors of the ...

  15. About Us

    About Us. The World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism) is the United Nations agency responsible for the promotion of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism. As the leading international organization in the field of tourism, UN Tourism promotes tourism as a driver of economic growth, inclusive development and environmental ...

  16. 2023 Edition International Tourism Highlights

    International Tourism Highlights, 2023 Edition - The Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism (2020-2022) ISBN (printed version): 978-92-844-2497-9 ISBN (electronic version): 978-92-844-2498-6 DOI: 10.18111/9789284424986 Published by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), Madrid, Spain First published: September 2023 Revised and updated: October 2023 ...

  17. World Tourism Barometer: September 2023

    World Tourism Barometer: September 2023. International tourism maintains strong momentum with 84% recovery up to July 2023. 2023-10-10. 3436. Travel demand continued to show remarkable resilience and sustained recovery, amid economic and geopolitical challenges. An estimated 700 million tourists travelled internationally from January to July ...

  18. UN Tourism

    UN Tourism (UNWTO until 2023) is a specialized agency of the United Nations which promotes responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism.Its headquarters are based in Madrid, Spain.Other offices include: a Regional Support Office for Asia and the Pacific in Nara, Japan and a Regional Office for West Asia in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.. UN Tourism promotes tourism and serves as a global ...

  19. International Tourism and Covid-19

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  20. Tourism: 2020 Vision. Executive Summary Updated

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  22. Volume 18 • Issue 4 • July 2020 Update

    of respondents see a recovery of domestic tourism by the second half of 2020, in line with the restart of tourism in many destinations in June and July, yet ... Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©* Provisional data +4 +4 +2 +6 -56 -58 -60 -47 -47 -52 -70-60-50-40-30-20-10 0 10 World Europe Asia and

  23. Impact assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak on international tourism

    The coronavirus pandemic caused a 72% decline in international tourist arrivals in 2020 and 71% in 2021, compared to 2019. This represents a loss of 2.1 billion international arrivals in both years combined. As a result, export revenues from international tourism plunged 63% in 2020 and 61% in 2021 (real terms) which amounts to a combined loss ...