contribution of tourism in world gdp

Travel, Tourism & Hospitality

Global tourism industry - statistics & facts

What are the leading global tourism destinations, digitalization of the global tourism industry, how important is sustainable tourism, key insights.

Detailed statistics

Total contribution of travel and tourism to GDP worldwide 2019-2033

Number of international tourist arrivals worldwide 1950-2023

Global leisure travel spend 2019-2022

Editor’s Picks Current statistics on this topic

Current statistics on this topic.

Leading global travel markets by travel and tourism contribution to GDP 2019-2022

Travel and tourism employment worldwide 2019-2033

Related topics

Recommended.

• Hotel industry worldwide
• Travel agency industry
• Sustainable tourism worldwide
• Travel and tourism in the U.S.
• Travel and tourism in Europe

Recommended statistics

• Basic Statistic Total contribution of travel and tourism to GDP worldwide 2019-2033
• Basic Statistic Travel and tourism: share of global GDP 2019-2033
• Basic Statistic Leading global travel markets by travel and tourism contribution to GDP 2019-2022
• Basic Statistic Global leisure travel spend 2019-2022
• Premium Statistic Global business travel spending 2001-2022
• Premium Statistic Number of international tourist arrivals worldwide 1950-2023
• Basic Statistic Number of international tourist arrivals worldwide 2005-2023, by region
• Basic Statistic Travel and tourism employment worldwide 2019-2033

Total contribution of travel and tourism to gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide in 2019 and 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2033 (in trillion U.S. dollars)

Travel and tourism: share of global GDP 2019-2033

Share of travel and tourism's total contribution to GDP worldwide in 2019 and 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2033

Total contribution of travel and tourism to GDP in leading travel markets worldwide in 2019 and 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Leisure tourism spending worldwide from 2019 to 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Global business travel spending 2001-2022

Expenditure of business tourists worldwide from 2001 to 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Number of international tourist arrivals worldwide from 1950 to 2023 (in millions)

Number of international tourist arrivals worldwide 2005-2023, by region

Number of international tourist arrivals worldwide from 2005 to 2023, by region (in millions)

Number of travel and tourism jobs worldwide from 2019 to 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2033 (in millions)

• Premium Statistic Global hotel and resort industry market size worldwide 2013-2023
• Premium Statistic Most valuable hotel brands worldwide 2023, by brand value
• Basic Statistic Leading hotel companies worldwide 2023, by number of properties
• Premium Statistic Hotel openings worldwide 2021-2024
• Premium Statistic Hotel room openings worldwide 2021-2024
• Premium Statistic Countries with the most hotel construction projects in the pipeline worldwide 2022

Global hotel and resort industry market size worldwide 2013-2023

Market size of the hotel and resort industry worldwide from 2013 to 2022, with a forecast for 2023 (in trillion U.S. dollars)

Most valuable hotel brands worldwide 2023, by brand value

Leading hotel brands based on brand value worldwide in 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Leading hotel companies worldwide 2023, by number of properties

Leading hotel companies worldwide as of June 2023, by number of properties

Hotel openings worldwide 2021-2024

Number of hotels opened worldwide from 2021 to 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2024

Hotel room openings worldwide 2021-2024

Number of hotel rooms opened worldwide from 2021 to 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2024

Countries with the most hotel construction projects in the pipeline worldwide 2022

Countries with the highest number of hotel construction projects in the pipeline worldwide as of Q4 2022

• Premium Statistic Airports with the most international air passenger traffic worldwide 2022
• Premium Statistic Market value of selected airlines worldwide 2023
• Premium Statistic Global passenger rail users forecast 2017-2027
• Premium Statistic Daily ridership of bus rapid transit systems worldwide by region 2023
• Premium Statistic Number of users of car rentals worldwide 2019-2028
• Premium Statistic Number of users in selected countries in the Car Rentals market in 2023
• Premium Statistic Carbon footprint of international tourism transport worldwide 2005-2030, by type

Airports with the most international air passenger traffic worldwide 2022

Leading airports for international air passenger traffic in 2022 (in million international passengers)

Market value of selected airlines worldwide 2023

Market value of selected airlines worldwide as of May 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Global passenger rail users forecast 2017-2027

Worldwide number of passenger rail users from 2017 to 2022, with a forecast through 2027 (in billion users)

Daily ridership of bus rapid transit systems worldwide by region 2023

Number of daily passengers using bus rapid transit (BRT) systems as of April 2023, by region

Number of users of car rentals worldwide 2019-2028

Number of users of car rentals worldwide from 2019 to 2028 (in millions)

Number of users in selected countries in the Car Rentals market in 2023

Number of users in selected countries in the Car Rentals market in 2023 (in million)

Carbon footprint of international tourism transport worldwide 2005-2030, by type

Transport-related emissions from international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2005 and 2016, with a forecast for 2030, by mode of transport (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide)

Attractions

• Premium Statistic Market size of museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks worldwide 2022-2027
• Premium Statistic Leading museums by highest attendance worldwide 2019-2022
• Basic Statistic Most visited amusement and theme parks worldwide 2019-2022
• Basic Statistic Monuments on the UNESCO world heritage list 2023, by type
• Basic Statistic Selected countries with the most Michelin-starred restaurants worldwide 2023

Market size of museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks worldwide 2022-2027

Size of the museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks market worldwide in 2022, with a forecast for 2023 and 2027 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Leading museums by highest attendance worldwide 2019-2022

Most visited museums worldwide from 2019 to 2022 (in millions)

Most visited amusement and theme parks worldwide 2019-2022

Leading amusement and theme parks worldwide from 2019 to 2022, by attendance (in millions)

Monuments on the UNESCO world heritage list 2023, by type

Number of monuments on the UNESCO world heritage list as of September 2023, by type

Selected countries with the most Michelin-starred restaurants worldwide 2023

Number of Michelin-starred restaurants in selected countries and territories worldwide as of July 2023

Online travel market

• Premium Statistic Online travel market size worldwide 2017-2028
• Premium Statistic Estimated desktop vs. mobile revenue of leading OTAs worldwide 2023
• Premium Statistic Number of aggregated downloads of leading online travel agency apps worldwide 2023
• Basic Statistic Market cap of leading online travel companies worldwide 2023
• Premium Statistic Forecast EV/Revenue ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment
• Premium Statistic Forecast EV/EBITDA ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment

Online travel market size worldwide 2017-2028

Online travel market size worldwide from 2017 to 2023, with a forecast until 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Estimated desktop vs. mobile revenue of leading OTAs worldwide 2023

Estimated desktop vs. mobile revenue of leading online travel agencies (OTAs) worldwide in 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Number of aggregated downloads of leading online travel agency apps worldwide 2023

Number of aggregated downloads of selected leading online travel agency apps worldwide in 2023 (in millions)

Market cap of leading online travel companies worldwide 2023

Market cap of leading online travel companies worldwide as of September 2023 (in million U.S. dollars)

Forecast EV/Revenue ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment

Forecast enterprise value to revenue (EV/Revenue) ratio in the online travel market worldwide in 2024, by segment

Forecast EV/EBITDA ratio in the online travel market 2024, by segment

Forecast enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio in the online travel market worldwide in 2024, by segment

Selected trends

• Premium Statistic Global travelers who believe in the importance of green travel 2023
• Premium Statistic Sustainable initiatives travelers would adopt worldwide 2022, by region
• Premium Statistic Airbnb revenue worldwide 2017-2023
• Premium Statistic Airbnb nights and experiences booked worldwide 2017-2023
• Premium Statistic Technologies global hotels plan to implement in the next three years 2022
• Premium Statistic Hotel technologies global consumers think would improve their future stay 2022

Global travelers who believe in the importance of green travel 2023

Share of travelers that believe sustainable travel is important worldwide in 2023

Sustainable initiatives travelers would adopt worldwide 2022, by region

Main sustainable initiatives travelers are willing to adopt worldwide in 2022, by region

Airbnb revenue worldwide 2017-2023

Revenue of Airbnb worldwide from 2017 to 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Airbnb nights and experiences booked worldwide 2017-2023

Nights and experiences booked with Airbnb from 2017 to 2023 (in millions)

Technologies global hotels plan to implement in the next three years 2022

Technologies hotels are most likely to implement in the next three years worldwide as of 2022

Hotel technologies global consumers think would improve their future stay 2022

Must-have hotel technologies to create a more amazing stay in the future among travelers worldwide as of 2022

• Premium Statistic Travel and tourism revenue worldwide 2019-2028, by segment
• Premium Statistic Distribution of sales channels in the travel and tourism market worldwide 2018-2028
• Premium Statistic Inbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region
• Premium Statistic Outbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region

Travel and tourism revenue worldwide 2019-2028, by segment

Revenue of the global travel and tourism market from 2019 to 2028, by segment (in billion U.S. dollars)

Distribution of sales channels in the travel and tourism market worldwide 2018-2028

Revenue share of sales channels of the travel and tourism market worldwide from 2018 to 2028

Inbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region

Inbound tourism visitor growth worldwide from 2020 to 2022, with a forecast until 2025, by region

Outbound tourism visitor growth worldwide 2020-2025, by region

Outbound tourism visitor growth worldwide from 2020 to 2022, with a forecast until 2025, by region

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By Bastian Herre, Veronika Samborska and Max Roser

Tourism has massively increased in recent decades. Aviation has opened up travel from domestic to international. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of international visits had more than doubled since 2000.

Tourism can be important for both the travelers and the people in the countries they visit.

For visitors, traveling can increase their understanding of and appreciation for people in other countries and their cultures.

And in many countries, many people rely on tourism for their income. In some, it is one of the largest industries.

But tourism also has externalities: it contributes to global carbon emissions and can encroach on local environments and cultures.

On this page, you can find data and visualizations on the history and current state of tourism across the world.

Interactive Charts on Tourism

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What is travel and tourism’s role in future global prosperity?

The travel and tourism sector faces many challenges in a disrupted world, from geopolitical tensions to climate change. Image:  Unsplash.

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Stay up to date:, travel and tourism.

• The travel and tourism sector faces many challenges in a disrupted world, from geopolitical tensions to climate change.
• The sector can be a powerful driver of sustainable economic prosperity – supporting people and places.
• The latest Travel and Tourism Development Index benchmarks the factors and policies that enable resilient and sustainable development.

With 2023 at an end, the Travel and Tourism (T&T) sector is finally positioned to move past the impact of the pandemic, with international tourist arrivals anticipated to reach levels reminiscent of the pre-pandemic era . However T&T sector stakeholders and destinations are navigating a complex terrain marked by external challenges such as geopolitical and economic uncertainty, inflation and dangers from the proliferation of extreme weather events like wildfires.

Many of these issues represent broader ongoing and longer-term economic, environmental, societal, geopolitical and technological trends. Within this context, consumers, policy-makers and advocates have expressed growing apprehension about the sector’s record on sustainability and its role in issues such as climate change, overcrowding, and overall impact on local communities.

Against this dynamic backdrop, it becomes imperative for the leaders and visionaries of the T&T industry to not only comprehend the impending trends but also acknowledge the sector's potential to tackle global challenges. When managed thoughtfully, travel and tourism emerge as potent drivers of resilient and sustainable development, contributing to the collective well-being of our planet.

The TTDI benchmarks and measures “the set of factors and policies that enable the sustainable and resilient development of the T&T sector, which in turn contributes to the development of a country”. The TTDI is a direct evolution of the long-running Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), with the change reflecting the index’s increased coverage of T&T development concepts, including sustainability and resilience impact on T&T growth and is designed to highlight the sector’s role in broader economic and social development as well as the need for T&T stakeholder collaboration to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, bolster the recovery and deal with future challenges and risks. Some of the most notable framework and methodology differences between the TTCI and TTDI include the additions of new pillars, including Non-Leisure Resources, Socioeconomic Resilience and Conditions, and T&T Demand Pressure and Impact. Please see the Technical notes and methodology. section to learn more about the index and the differences between the TTCI and TTDI.

Why travel and tourism have a role to play in future global prosperity

The recently released World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2024 sheds light on the short- and long-term risks that the world faces. According to the report’s survey results, economic and societal risks, such as inequality, inflation, migration, and economic downturns, take center stage in the next two years, while environmental concerns, including extreme weather events and biodiversity loss, dominate the global risks for the next decade.

Given that T&T accounts for 7.6% of global GDP and close to 300 million jobs , the sector plays a critical role in addressing societal and economic challenges. The sector's significance magnifies as it empowers small- and medium-sized enterprises, with over 80% of T&T businesses falling under this category. It also plays a pivotal role in employing women, youth, migrants, and informal workers, thereby contributing significantly to economic opportunities .

T&T is also a major driver of global connectivity at a time when geopolitical tensions and conflict are on the rise, while globalization seems to be slowing. In the coming decade, T&T’s role in mitigating socioeconomic risks will only climb, with the World Travel and Tourism Council forecasting T&T sector GDP to grow at nearly double the rate of the broader global economy in the 10 years to 2033, thereby adding more than 100 million new jobs.

On an environmental level, T&T is a key stakeholder in addressing climate change and protecting the environment. The sector is not only affected by these challenges but also contributes to climate change with around 8% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions stemming from tourism activities. Therefore, actions in the sector, especially in hard-to-abate segments like aviation, are important to helping meet global climate change targets. Moreover, many destinations' dependence on nature-based attractions makes T&T a means to generate economic value for protecting nature.

Have you read?

What is overtourism and how can we overcome it , this is how to leverage community-led sustainable tourism for people and biodiversity, are we finally turning the tide towards sustainable tourism, the podcasts to listen to during davos #wef24, unlocking travel and tourism's potential.

To unlock the full potential of T&T as a tool for addressing many of the world’s ongoing and future challenges, sector leaders must prioritize sustainability and resilience in their development strategies.

The Global Future Council on Sustainable Tourism emphasizes the importance of creating standards and metrics for sustainability, cultivating a well-trained and inclusive workforce, prioritizing and engaging with local communities, aligning visitors with destinations carrying capacity and making appropriate investments in relevant infrastructure .

Achieving these goals necessitates a high degree of collaboration among sector and non-sector businesses, employees, and government actors at national and local levels, including tourism and environmental agencies, civil society, and international organizations.

In the coming months, the Forum, in collaboration with the University of Surrey, will unveil the latest edition of the Travel and Tourism Development Index (TTDI). This index promises to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors and policies that enable the sustainable and resilient development of the T&T sector.

Drawing on the latest data encompassing environmental and social impacts of T&T, labour markets, infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and demand sustainability, the TTDI offers insights into the challenges ahead, the sector's readiness for risks and opportunities, and how it can be leveraged to address global issues. The importance of T&T for global prosperity will only grow in the years, creating new opportunities for shared commitment to a sustainable and inclusive future.

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World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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World Economic Impact Report

Discover the direct and total economic contribution that the Travel & Tourism sector brings to the World economy in this comprehensive report.

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Over the next few weeks we will be releasing the newest Economic Impact Research reports for a wide range of economies and regions. If the report you're interested in is not yet available, sign up to be notified via the form on this page .

Report details

This latest report reveals the importance of Travel & Tourism to the World economy in granular detail across many metrics. The report’s features include:

• Absolute and relative contributions of Travel & Tourism to GDP and employment, international and domestic spending

• Data on leisure and business spending, capital investment, government spending and outbound spending

• Charts comparing data across every year from 2014 to 2024

• Detailed data tables for the years 2018-2023 plus forecasts for 2024 and the decade to 2034

Purchase of this report also provides access to two supporting papers: Methodology and Data Sources and Estimation Techniques.

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More From Forbes

New resorts signify impressive growth for travel and tourism.

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A record-breaking year is projected for Travel and Tourism.

Despite the plethora of daunting challenges faced by the hospitality industry over the past few years, the World Travel & Tourism Council is projecting a record-breaking year for Travel & Tourism in 2024, with the sector’s global economic contribution set to reach an all-time high of $11.1 trillion. According to the global tourism body’s 2024 Economic Impact Research, Travel & Tourism will contribute an additional $770 billion over its previous record, thereby solidifying its stature as a global economic engine, generating one in every 10 dollars worldwide. As the global sector surpasses its pre-pandemic prosperity, 142 of 185 countries are expected to outperform previous national records.

An important sign of this economic prosperity has been the opening of new resorts and hotels throughout the world, along with major renovations. To follow are several examples.

The renovation includes refreshed, expansive guestrooms and suites.

Newport Harbor Island Resort , Rhode Island

Newport Harbor Island Resort, the sole accommodations on Goat Island, is set to open at the end of April following a $50 million renovation. The renovation marks a new era for the former-Gurney’s property, comprised of refreshed, expansive guestrooms and suites, contemporary Spa, re-concepted culinary experiences, meeting spaces and 22-slip marina. Much of the art in the rooms and throughout the hotel was commissioned from local artists, while soft goods were hand-crafted by various New England weavers’ guilds. Instead of focusing on the ubiquitous Gilded Era and sailing communities of Newport, the design team chose to focus on the inherent simplicity of coastal life. Guests and locals will be invited to cozy up in the property’s upgraded culinary outlets, including its full-service restaurant 1639, Torpedo Bar and Lounge, the lobby’s The Bakery and the beloved Pineapple Club.

The resort boasts 70 exquisitely designed guest rooms and suites.

TA’AKTANA, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Labuan Bajo , Indonesia

Slated to debut spring 2024, TA’AKTANA is situated in the scenic town of Labuan Bajo among the enchanting landscapes of Flores island, which is home to one of the world’s highest populations of the endangered Komodo dragons. TA’AKTANA joins The Luxury Collection as Marriott Bonvoy’s first property in the region. The resort spans 16 hectares of pristine terrain and boasts 70 exquisitely designed guest rooms and suites, including overwater villas and family-friendly accommodations with 24-hour butler service. The resort’s Sea Villas offer overwater opulence that will immerse guests in the beauty of the resort’s local surroundings. TA’AKTANA is a destination itself, offering exceptional comfort and amenities. Guests can unwind in expansive pools offering breathtaking views of the Flores Sea, indulge in wellness with rejuvenating treatments or embark on a delectable gastronomic journey.

La Vista offers guests a modern, light and airy dining space.

La Vista at Cameron House , Scotland

Cameron House, the five-star resort on Loch Lomond, Scotland, opened La Vista, a brand new restaurant. La Vista will serve authentic Italian cuisine and boasts panoramic views of the loch. Formerly The Boat House, the acclaimed resort has invested $2 million in transforming the lochside restaurant into a modern, light and airy dining space with a 138-cover restaurant, informal Mercato with a dining area for 50 guests and a private dining room for up to 24 people. An al fresco terrace launching in the summer will provide an additional 120 covers. Open seven days a week, from breakfast to dinner, Head Chef, Mark Pawsey’s main menu celebrates authentic Italian cuisine and features dishes rooted in traditional recipes executed with modern flair. The menu is divided into small aperitivo plates and cicchetti, larger signature mains, handmade pastas and wood-fired pizzas cooked in a Valoriani oven.

The expansive interior of The Rockley features colorful touches.

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Apple watch series 9 hits all time low special offer price, ipad air 2024 design upgrade coming report claims, the rockley , barbados.

Opened on March 27, The Rockley, located on the South Coast of Barbados, brings a local vibe and a hip new hotel experience to the Rockley Beach area known for its lively bars, signature restaurants and authentic island experiences. Owned and operated by the Ocean Hotels Group, the Rockley is the reincarnation of the old South Beach hotel. The modern 49-room boutique hotel, an urban chic oasis, was brought to life by Michelle Leotaud of Apple & Iron, a Barbados-based design firm. Rooms at The Rockley feature colorful local touches including playful Bajan sayings on throw pillows, the island’s iconic Bus Stop sign and thoughtful locally crafted amenities that celebrate Bajan culture. The hotel’s new outdoor covered bar area offers a trendy beach club vibe that will feature daily and nightly entertainment. The Rockley has also upgraded and repurposed its reception, pool deck and communal spaces.

Each rooms reflects the island’s natural charm and elegance.

Octant Ponta Delgada , Portugal

Following a series of renovations of the common spaces, Octant Ponta Delgada, located in the Azores on São Miguel Island, launched five new room categories. Among the five newly renovated suite categories, the spotlight shines on a Whale Watching Room, a sanctuary where guests can observe the majestic blue whales with an in-room telescope and private balcony. With panoramic ocean views and thoughtful amenities, including exercise and yoga equipment and a minibar with local products, the new room promises an unparalleled connection with the surrounding nature of the islands. From the Sea View Room, offering stunning vistas of the marina, to the spacious Family Two Bedroom suite, perfect for family getaways, every space reflects the island’s natural charm and elegance.

100 Princes Street is set within the historic former Overseas League.

100 Princes Street , Edinburgh, Scotland

Red Carnation Hotel Collection will open 100 Princes Street, its first Scottish hotel, in spring 2024. Inspired by the adventures and tales of Scottish explorers who once called the building their home away from home, 100 Princes Street is set within the historic former Overseas League, nestled in Edinburgh's cultural heart, a stone's throw from Scotland's National Gallery. With uninterrupted views of Edinburgh Castle, the original building and its iconic features will be respectfully renovated, transforming it into an exclusive retreat on Edinburgh’s most famous street.

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Tourism ‘intrinsically susceptible’ to climate shocks, political unrest, pandemic threat

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The President of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday highlighted the urgent need to boost sustainable and resilient tourism practices to protect the environment while continuing to benefit local economies.

Addressing a high-level meeting on tourism as part of the General Assembly’s first ever Sustainability Week , Dennis Francis said it was a vital driver of economic growth and empowerment .

In 2023, the sector contributed three per cent to the global gross domestic product (GDP), amounting to $3.3 trillion, and employed one in every ten people worldwide. For countries in special situations, like small island nations, tourism accounted for nearly 35 per cent of all export earnings and up to 80 per cent of national exports .

“Despite the spectacular benefits reaped across its vast supply chains – tourism is also intrinsically susceptible to a host of disruptive forces – such as climate change, pandemics, acts of terrorism, and domestic political instability,” Mr. Francis said.

Sustainable

He expressed concerns about the sector’s environmental and carbon footprint, saying sustainability must be paramount.

“We need a global tourism sector that is sustainable – one with deep local value chains that expand demand for locally made products and services in ways that also directly and positively benefit local communities,” he urged.

Moreover, he emphasized that the sector should also leverage digital technology to foster innovation and expand opportunities for jobs and economic growth, especially for women, youth, and indigenous and local communities.

“We also need a global tourism sector that is resilient,” said Mr. Francis, stressing the need to minimize its vulnerabilities and bolstering its ability to withstand external shocks.

This includes designing infrastructures that can withstand environmental disasters, fostering innovations that enhance economic and social resilience, and diversifying tourism activities to reduce recovery time after disruptive events.

Symbol of hope

Zurab Pololikashvili, head of the UN World Tourism Organization ( UNWTO ), also spoke at the General Assembly, noting that despite today’s pressing challenges, tourism offered a glimmer of hope.

Reflecting on the sector’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic – its most significant crisis in history – he observed that in 2023, international arrivals rebounded to almost 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels , with full recovery expected by the end of 2024.

This recovery must serve as a catalyst for bold action and transformative change, he said, emphasizing, “tourism can – and must – be a part of this plan for a better future for all.”

Sustainability Week

The high-level event on tourism followed Monday’s deliberations on debt sustainability , where speakers outlined the crippling impact of debt on developing economies, and called for urgent reform of the global financial system.

Upcoming highlights of the week include dedicated discussions on sustainable transport, infrastructure and energy.

• General Assembly
• 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

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Transcript of April 2024 World Economic Outlook Press Briefing

April 16, 2024

Moderator: Jose Luis De Haro, IMF Communications Department

Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas, Director, IMF Research Department

Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, IMF Research Department

Daniel Leigh, Division Chief, IMF Research Department

Mr. De Haro: We can start. I want to welcome everyone, good morning. Also hello to those who are joining us online. I am Jose Luis De Haro with the Communications Department here at the IMF. We are gathered here today to introduce the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook. If you have not got a copy yet, I would recommend you go to IMF.org. There you will find the flagship. Then also there is a blog and data underlining some charts and many other assets that might be helpful for your reporting.

And what best to discuss the World Economic Outlook than to be here today with Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas. He is the Economic Counsellor and the Director of the Research Department. Also next to him are Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, and Daniel Leigh, Division Chief, also with Research Department.

Pierre‑Olivier is going to start with some opening remarks, and then we are going to proceed to take your questions. I want to remind everyone that this briefing is on the record and that we also have simultaneous interpretation. With that, Pierre‑Olivier, the floor is yours.

Mr. Gourinchas: Thank you, Jose. Good morning, everyone. The global economy continues to display remarkable resilience with growth holding steady and inflation declining, but many challenges still lie ahead. Global growth was 3.2 percent in 2023 and is expected to remain at that level both in 2024 and 2025. This represents a 0.3 percentage point upgrade from our October objections for 2024, with stronger activity than expected in the U.S., China, and other large emerging markets, but weaker activity in the Euro Area.

Inflation continues to come down. Median inflation will decline from 4 percent at the end of last year to 2.8 percent by the end of this year and 2.4 percent at the end of 2025, and most indicators continue to point to a soft landing.

A resilient growth and rapid disinflation are consistent with favorable supply developments, including the fading of energy price shocks and a striking rebound in labor supply, supported by strong immigration in many advanced economies.

We also project less economic scarring from the crisis of the past 4 years, although estimates vary across countries. The U.S. economy has already surged past its pre‑pandemic trend, but we now estimate there will be more scarring for low‑income developing countries, many of which are still struggling to turn the page from the pandemic and cost‑of‑living crisis.

Risks are now broadly balanced. On the downside, new price spikes from geopolitical tensions, persistent core inflation, or a disruptive turn towards a fiscal adjustment could slow activity. On the upside, faster disinflation or timely structural reforms that boost productivity could support activity. Insufficient action on the fiscal front could also stimulate growth, although this could force a more costlier adjustment later on.

Inflation trends are encouraging, but we are not there yet. Somewhat worryingly, progress towards inflation targets has stalled since the beginning of the year in some countries. This could be a temporary setback, but there are reasons to remain vigilant. Oil prices have been rising in part due to geopolitical tensions and services inflation remains stubbornly high in many countries. Further trade restrictions could also push up goods inflation. Bringing inflation back to target should remain the priority. There are stark divergences also between countries that call for careful calibration of monetary policy. The strong recent performance of the United States reflects robust productivity growth and growth in labor supply, but also strong demand pressures that could add to inflation. This calls for a cautious and gradual approach to easing by the Federal Reserve.

By contrast, growth in the Euro Area will rebound this year but from very low levels. Unlike in the United States, there is little evidence of a hot economy, and the European Central Bank will need to carefully calibrate the pivot towards monetary easing.

China’s economy remains affected by the downturn in its property sector. Domestic demand will remain lackluster unless strong measures address the root cause and monetary policy can afford to be more accommodative.

Going forward, policymakers should prioritize measures that help preserve or even enhance the resilience of the global economy. A key priority is to rebuild fiscal buffers, especially in an environment with high real interest rates, modest growth, and elevated debts. Unfortunately planned fiscal adjustments are often insufficient and could be derailed further given the record number of elections this year.

In the United States, the fiscal stance is out of line with long‑term fiscal sustainability. This raises short‑term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer‑term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy. Fiscal consolidations are never easy, but it is best not to wait until market dictate their conditions.

Credible fiscal consolidations can help lower funding costs, improve fiscal headroom and financial stability. The key is to start early, gradually, and credibly. This will also pave the way for further monetary policy easing to support activity.

The second priority is to reverse the decline in medium‑term growth for low‑income countries. Structural reforms should promote domestic and foreign investment and increase fiscal revenues. This will help lower borrowing costs and reduce funding needs. These countries must also improve the human capital of their large, young populations, especially as the rest of the world is aging rapidly.

Artificial intelligence also gives hope for boosting productivity. It may do so, but the potential for serious disruptions in labor and financial markets is high, and the right infrastructure and regulations are needed.

Third, global growth prospects are also harmed by rising geo‑economic fragmentation. Trade linkages are already changing. Some economies could benefit from the reconfiguration of global supply chains, but the net effect may still be a loss of efficiency, making the global economy less, not more resilient, and the broader damage is to global cooperation.

A great achievement of the past few years has been the strengthening of monetary, fiscal, and financial policy frameworks, especially for emerging market economies. This has helped make the global financial system more resilient and avoid a permanent resurgence in inflation. Going forward, it is essential to preserve these improvements, and that includes protecting the hard‑won independence of central banks.

Lastly, the green transition requires major investments. Cutting emissions is compatible with growth, but emissions are still rising, so more needs to be done and done quickly. This will require technology transfers by other advanced economies and China to weather emerging and developing economies, as well as substantial private and public financing.

On these questions, as well as many others, multilateral frameworks and cooperation remain essential for progress. Thank you. 

Mr. De Haro: Thank you, Pierre‑Olivier. Before we open the floor to your questions, some ground rules. If you have a question, please raise your hand and wait until I call you. If I do, please identify yourself and the outlet you represent. We will be taking questions also online and via WebEx. I want to remind everyone that we are here to discuss the World Economic Outlook. If you have questions regarding country programs, negotiations, there is going to be plenty of regional press briefings later on in the week where you can tackle these issues. We are going to start here on the second row.           

Question: David Lawder with Reuters News Service here in Washington. Pierre‑Olivier, can you go a little bit deeper into the scarring that is happening with low‑income developing economies? You said many of these are having a hard time sort of recovering after the various crises that they have been through. How is this being manifested? Which countries are having the worst time of it? Also, if you could comment a bit on the energy price outlook. The United States is looking at potentially new sanctions against Iran after its attack on Israel. That is likely to come in the oil sector. If we do see spikes in prices, what does that mean for inflation globally and the recovery? Thank you.

Mr. Gourinchas: Thanks, David. Yes, as I mentioned, estimates of scarring, which is the amount of decline in output relative to our pre‑pandemic, say January 2020 estimates, have been reduced for most regions and countries, but they have been increased for low‑income developing countries. Another thing we have noticed over the recent estimates and recent run of projections is also inflation and price pressures have been revised up, so what we are seeing for that region is a combination of still impacts in terms of output and also prices that remain quite strong, price pressures that remain quite strong.

What is going on here is we are seeing a combination of the effect of relatively high energy and food prices, increased food insecurity in countries in the region that is affecting outcomes. This is a region that is also—had limited—more limited fiscal buffers during the pandemic and the cost‑of‑living crisis to protect its population, and we see the remaining effect of this going on. We are in an environment in which interest rates are rising. There are fiscal pressures and so there is limited space for a lot of these countries to address this among low‑income and developing economies.

Now, in terms of potential output for energy price and what it might do to the global economy, this is something that we explored in our report. We looked at a scenario where we would have more geopolitical tensions that would result in elevated oil prices and energy prices and shipping costs. And what we find is that this would lead to higher price pressures in the global economy that would be higher inflation, there would be lower output. And roughly the estimates we have for a sustained increase in oil prices by about 15 percent would be an increase in inflation globally of about 0.7 percent. So there is some effect there. We are not in that scenario right now. Our assessment of what has been happened with the tensions in the Middle East is there has been some increase in oil prices, but it is too early to say whether that would be sustained, and it is not in our baseline, but we certainly looked at the scenario very carefully.           

Mr. De Haro: Let us go there.              

Question: Hello. This is Noor with Bloomberg Asharq. We have a question now. You touched upon the rising inflation again. So interest rates are already really high. How do you see central banks dealing with this, specifically the Fed, especially that now the probability of any decrease in interest rates in June is basically declining?

Mr. Gourinchas: This is one of the divergences we highlight in our report. We are saying that indeed the drivers of the inflation in countries like the United States are somewhat different than they are in other regions in the world, especially if you look at the Euro Area or the U.K. or Japan. There is evidence, which we document in our report, that tight labor markets, strong demand are playing a role in the U.S. And if that were to be reinforced, then the recent inflation print numbers in the U.S. seem to point in that direction, although we have to take that with a grain of salt. There is a lot of volatility in the month‑to‑month inflation numbers. Then I would probably call for a delayed easing of monetary policy in the U.S.

At the same time, I want to say that we would still expect the U.S. to be in a position where it starts easing sometime in 2024. The progress has been enormous in terms of disinflation and the resilience of the economy. What we are seeing now is maybe a slight adjustment in terms of the baseline.        

Mr. De Haro: OK. We are going to go here in the first row and then we will go back. 

Question: Yes. Thank you very much for the opportunity. So, China’s Q1 GDP number just came in at 5.3 percent, which was just released last night. So, how does that number look to you and given all‑year target, 5 percent, in the setback in the China government, so does that first quarter GDP number give you more confidence that we can reach the—hit the target for the whole year?  

Also, in your remarks, you mentioned that China’s domestic demand will remain lackluster for quite some time. So strong measures and reforms just the root cause, so can you elaborate? What do you mean by the strong measures and the reforms? Thank you very much.

Mr. De Haro: Before we answer the question, we also have a question on WebEx on China, please, the reporter that wants to come in on WebEx. Weier.

Question: This is question from ETIME Media Group. In the context of the green transition, how should global cooperation be instructed and what role can China play in this collaborative effort? Additionally, at the last WEO release, you noted that globalization is plateauing. Have there been any changes in this trend and what impact might this have on global cooperation to address the climate change? Thank you.

Mr. De Haro : So, we can go with the GDP numbers and then we can go with the climate one.

Mr. Gourinchas: Yes, happy to. First, yes, last night, it was released that China’s GDP year‑on‑year for the first quarter was 5.3 percent. This is higher than the estimates. This is certainly higher also than the estimates we had here at the Fund. So the team will be assessing how they are revising their growth projections for the annual numbers, and it might be revised upwards. But I would like to emphasize some of the—some of the structural forces that are driving the Chinese economy right now. And certainly one of the important ones is the weakness in the property sector. And in our forecast for this year, our forecast was unchanged from January at 4.6 percent. There were two balancing forces. One was stronger stimulus that was coming from the Chinese government with measures that were announced as recently last month, in March, but then the continued weakness in the property sector and the two in our assessment were balancing each other out and leading to an unchanged forecast. Now we will have to see whether that is revised.

But the underlying weakness in the property sector is still there, and some of the indicators that we have and that were released even in the last few days do seem to point out that that weakness will persist. So when we are referring to reform measures that would be needed, those would be measures that would directly address some of the root cause in the weakness in the property sector, and that includes dealing with property developers that are struggling right now and recapitalizing or winding them down, then finding ways in which also there might be ways to sustain domestic consumption for China in the medium to long term, and that includes maybe building stronger safety nets.

The broader context here, and that allows me to answer the second question on China, is that with an economy that has potentially still relatively weak domestic demand but is growing, then there would be an increased reliance on the export sector. And that is something that in the context of very tight trade tensions could be complicated. So certainly that would be in the interest of the Chinese economy to develop ways of sustaining domestic demand. Let me turn to Daniel to see if there are any other points on China.

Mr. Leigh: I would just add that the green transition and the high-tech sectors present a great opportunity for China and policies like evening the playing field between state‑owned and private enterprises are going to help China capitalized on this great potential.

Mr. De Haro: OK. We are going to the third row. It is the third row. Yes, there.

Question: Larry Elliott of the Guardian. I just wonder whether you could say a bit more about the tensions in the Middle East. The world economy has been hit by a number of shocks in recent years, including the war in Ukraine. Is there a risk that the conflict between Israel and Iran could be the next [malign] in the global economy? Maybe you could unpack a bit more how you think it would impact on the global economy, not just through oil prices, but through business and consumer confidence.

Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. Certainly we watch the developments happening in that space, and we try to adjust our scenarios and our analysis based on that, so as I mentioned earlier, the way we approach this is by evaluating different possible trajectories for the global economy. The one that we describe in detail in our report is one where you would have fairly significant disruptions in oil markets that will lead to a 15 percent increase in oil prices and also an increase in shipping costs.

So, of course, one could think about more adverse scenarios than that, but I think that is something that we have not really contemplated just yet. The impact, to unpack a little bit the channels here, you are right, there would be an impact on business confidence. There would be an impact on investment, probably.

The increased inflation that would come from higher energy prices would trigger a response from central banks that would tighten interest rates in order to secure inflation coming back to target, and that would weigh down on activity, and that would do so in the context in which in some countries activity in growth is already fairly weak, and so that might also have a strong effect there.

Mr. De Haro: OK. First row there.              

Question: Thank you very much. Joel Hills from ITV News. I wanted to pick up, Pierre‑Olivier, on some of the comments you were making about prioritization of rebuilding buffers, consolidation you say is never easy, but it is important that it is early gradual and credible. Sort of within that context, are you comfortable with the British approach of cutting taxes on an assumption, I suppose of future unspecified cuts to public spending?

Mr. De Haro: There is another question online from Holly Williams, Press Association, that says was it responsible for the U.K. chancellor to cut taxes in the latest budget when inflation is still above target, and it risks putting more pressure on price rises? 

Mr. Gourinchas: What we emphasize in our report is a number of countries need to do—many of the countries in the world that have deployed fiscal buffers during the pandemic and the cost‑of‑living crisis have seen their debt‑to‑GDP increase substantially. Now, some of that has come down a little bit. This is the effect of unexpected inflation, if you want, but if you look at the trajectory, it is starting to grow again in many countries. And so we are calling for rebuilding these buffers, which is absolutely necessary to be able to deal with the kind of shocks that might be larger in magnitude and might be the—there might be more than one and the same time. We seem to be living in this shock‑prone world. Having that fiscal capacity is important. That is true for the U.K., but that is true for many other countries. That is true for many—chiefly this is true for the United States, this is true for many European economies, this is true for many countries around the world. So this is a general assessment that it is very important to do that. We see very clearly that those country that had the fiscal room to protect households and businesses during these two crises were able to do much better and were able to rebound much more quickly. So it is a time now that these crises are behind us, at least both of these crises are behind us, but we could be facing future crises and they could be coming to be prepared.       

Mr. De Haro: We will take a question from WebEx and then go back to the room. Be patient. We will take more questions do not worry.

We have a question from Siram. Please go ahead. Hello. Can you here us?                     

Question: You projected a 6.8 percent and 6.5 percent growth rate for India over the last 2 years. Could you please elaborate on your policy recommendations for India? Specifically, could you comment on the employment situation there and other pressures to these growth numbers, such as net financial assets for those and private consumption which has been impacted by food inflation for many? Thank you.   

Mr. De Haro: We have another question, similar question on India from the Economic Times on the press center that says, you have raised India’s growth forecast for 2024. What are the upsides and downside risks to this 6.8 percent number? How will the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affect growth and inflation forecasts?

Mr. Gourinchas: Yes, thank you. Indeed, India is one of the strong performers. We had a fairly sharp revision in the Fiscal Year 2023 to 2024, the one that is ending, and that has just ended. Then we have 0.3 percentage point upgrade for Fiscal Year 2024 to 2025. So India is doing quite well. Let me turn to Daniel to answer more specifically.

Mr. Leigh: [No audio]. Moderation partly reflects the tightening in monetary policy and the tightening in fiscal policy, which is necessary to bring inflation down. We see inflation coming down — is in the target range 4.6 this year, 4.2 next year. There are upside risks to this forecast. They could be further strengthened in private demand.

Also, an upside comes from the potential for reforms that would liberalize foreign investment and really boost exports and boost jobs and labor force participation. So it’s a very strong outlook, and there’s a balanced risk outlook.       

Mr. De Haro: Do we have any questions? We are going to the second row. 

Question: Hi. I am Daniel Avis, AFP. Just a quick question about Russia, if I may. Can you help us just to understand what is behind the very significant increase not only now but over the last few months to the IMF’s forecast for Russia? Thank you.   

Mr. De Haro: And I think we have another question on question on WebEx. Please come in. We cannot hear you. 

Question: Good morning. Anton with TASS Agency of Russia. Thank you so much for doing this. The same question.

The growth rate of the Russian economy is high into 2024, then similar figures on the Group of Seven countries that imposed sanctions against Russia. In this case, can we say that Russia was able to successfully overcome the sanctions restrictions? Thank you so much.             

Mr. De Haro: Yes.     

Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So we have revised Russia’s GDP growth in 2024 by 0.6 percentage points, to 3.2 percent, so this is a significant upward revision. We are still expecting growth to decline in 2025, from 3.2 percent to 1.8 percent.

I will turn to my colleague Petya Koeva Brooks to provide additional details.   

Ms. Koeva Brooks: Thank you. So there are several factors behind the resilience of the Russian economy and the upgrades that we have made. I would mention four factors.

First, oil export volumes have held steady. The second part is that we have seen a lot of strength in corporate investment, including by state‑owned enterprises. The third is that we have also seen a lot of robustness in private consumption that has underpinned growth. And last, but not least, we have also had the impact from government spending; though there, we have seen much larger increases in security‑related spending than overall spending.

Now to put this in context, though, if we look into the medium term, there, we still have growth rates that are significantly below what they were prior to the war. Now we have growth rates in the order of one and a quarter, as opposed to 1.7, which we had previously, which is another way of saying that the Russian economy is still expected to face these headwinds as a result of the—again, the impact of the war and the associated sanctions. Thanks.

Mr. De Haro: We are going to go to the fourth row. Yep.

Question: Thank you. Susan Lynch from Politico. I have a question about the growth figures for Europe, the German economy, in particular, only going growing by 0.2 percent. What’s your analysis of that? And how concerned are you about the eurozone economy, in particular, particularly in comparison to the U.S.?

Mr. Gourinchas: So on the the euro economy, we have a region that has been feeling the full brunt of the energy crisis of the last 2022 and part of 2023 and is gradually emerging from that in the context of tight monetary policy. And so what we are seeing is a pickup in activity from 2023 to 2024. So growth in Germany, for instance, is very modest, 0.2 percent, but it’s higher than the negative growth in 2023. And the same is true at the level of the euro area, where we expect growth to grow from 0.4 percent in ‘23 to 0.8 percent in ‘24. And then as we go into 2025, we expect that monetary policy will start easing. So financial conditions will become easier, and also that the cost of living receding the purchasing power of households and workers will increase as real wages catch up. And that will also sustain demand. But we start from a position of relatively weak consumer sentiment, still tight monetary policy, and that’s still weighing down on growth in this year. Let me turn to Petya for additional comments on Germany and Europe.

Ms. Koeva Brooks: I don’t have much to add on Germany. For the euro area, some of the same factors are playing a role, although we do have quite a lot of heterogeneity within the euro area. So we do have upward revisions in other countries—for instance, Spain, Portugal, Belgium—that partially offset the downward revisions in Germany and France.

Mr. De Haro: We go to the first row here, and then we will move to this side. 

Question: Thank you. Two questions on Argentina. You foresee a sharp decline in inflation and a rebound of GDP. I was hoping, if you could elaborate, if you see the disinflation process on solid footing, first. 

Second, there’s a debate among economies, whether the recovery is going to be in L, V, or U shape. I was hoping you could pick a letter and tell us how and when the recovery, you see it happening. Thanks.

Mr. Gourinchas: So, on Argentina, I mean, the authorities are implementing a very ambitious stabilization plan to restore macroeconomic stability. And as you know, the plan is centered on a strong fiscal anchor that eliminates, in particular, any central bank financing of the government, which was one of the factors that was leading to very elevated inflation numbers under—in previous years. And so that is already showing its effects. We see this sharp decline in month‑on‑month inflation.

So the progress so far has been really impressive. The authorities have been able to record a fiscal surplus for the first time in over a decade. But, of course, this is going to take some time, and that’s going to require steadfast policy implementation. Much more needs to be done, and much more needs to be done on the broader scale. So I think this is—we are watching this situation closely. Our teams here at the Fund are in close contact with the authorities. But the progress, again, has been quite sharp. Now, whether that’s going to be a V, U, or L, let’s agree that we’d much prefer V over U over L.

Mr. De Haro: And with the alphabet, we are going to move toward this side of the room, the lady that —thank you.

Question: Hello. Ana Rodriguez. El Tiempo, Colombian Newspaper. In general, what the growth perspective for Latin America, not only for Argentina? And across the world, what is the—how do you see the oil markets in that region, please? Thank you. 

Mr. De Haro: Before we answer, there are two specific questions about the outlook on Mexico and Brazil. So if we could elaborate, too, that would be great.      

Mr. Gourinchas: So let me just give a few numbers and then turn it over to Petya.

The Latin American and Caribbean region, we see growth that has been—is going to slow down a little bit, from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent. The numbers I give you here are excluding Argentina and Venezuela, which have fairly specific environments. And that is revised up in 2024 by 0.2 percentage points. So there is a lot of resilience in the region, as well; although, of course, a number of countries in the region have tight monetary policy—in fact, tight monetary policy that started ahead of what advanced economies did. And that is weighing down on growth and is expected to go away as we have some easing of monetary conditions. Petya. 

Ms. Koeva Brooks: Maybe a few words on Mexico and Brazil. Starting with Brazil, we are expecting growth to come down from 2.9 in ‘23 to 2.2 this year, and then to stay about the same at about the same rate, 2.1, in 2025. 

Now, last year, we saw a lot of strength due to record agricultural production. And this time around, we see moderation in that, as well as the—

We also have an upgrade in our forecast for this year as a result of the fiscal support, which is expected to be seen in the country.      

Now, when it comes to Mexico, we are expecting growth to come down to 2.4 this year, from 3.2 last year, and then going onto 2025 to be a 1.4. We have seen a strong recovery in the second half of 2023 due to a lot of internal demand, especially investment. And, of course, the strength of the U.S. economy and the close links of Mexico with that have also played a role. I will stop here. Thanks. 

Mr. De Haro: OK. We have 10 minutes. I am going to come back here. I know that you’ve been waiting very patiently. Let’s go to that side of the room, Bloomberg, and then we will end up here. I hope that we still have two, three questions left. So don’t worry. 

Question: Thank you, Pierre‑Olivier. Eric Martin with Bloomberg News.

I wanted to ask you about your commentary on the U.S. fiscal situation and the fiscal balance. In the report, it mentions larger‑than‑expected government spending, including what’s estimated — or comparison, excuse me, with prior WEO forecasts, 2 percent of GDP in the U.S. Can you talk a little bit about the conversations between the IMF and the U.S. in terms of what the U.S. should be pursuing in terms of fiscal policy and given the size of the U.S. economy—about a quarter of the world economy—how concerning this is for overheating around the world? 

Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So there is, of course, the cyclical part, and there’s a more structural part. So let me start with the cyclical part. Here, what I would want to emphasize is the U.S. is expected to turn toward fiscal consolidation in 2024. In our projections, there is a 1.9 percent increase in the structural fiscal balance of the U.S. for 2024. And that is one of the reasons, among others, why we are expecting also growth to slow down in this year compared to last year and after that. So there is some movement in the right direction, if you want. 

But as for many other countries, we are concerned that this is, A, not enough and, B, more importantly, not necessarily sustained over a sufficient period of time, that it would bring back debt‑to‑GDP levels into a more comfortable zone. 

And the background here is that, even if we have an easing of monetary policy that is expected—our baseline is still that the Fed is going to cut policy rates sometime later this year—the funding costs for government debt may not be decreasing as much because of what is called the term premium, the risk premium on government debt has increased in recent times and may remain high in the context that debt levels are elevated and there are risks around that. So we are concerned that more of that medium‑term implication of the fiscal trajectory for the U.S. Daniel, anything to add? 

Mr. De Haro: Third row there. Nope. I will take both questions. You are first. 

Question: My name is Ivan. I work for AFP and the Africa Report. I have one question. This is going to be a very interesting year for Africa, especially about close to 19 countries are going for general elections. I want to know your projections, considering the fact that this usually comes with a lot of political violence in some areas, as well as sluggish growth that has affected the sub‑Saharan region. I want to know more about the recommendations you have for these African countries that are going for elections, especially in this period, and what you expect. Thank you. 

Mr. De Haro: Yeah. Let’s go first with this question and then we can— 

Mr. Gourinchas: I mean, 2024 is the biggest election year on record, and so the question of elections is important for many parts of the world, including Africa. And that is a concern especially in relation to what we just discussed, which is the fiscal trajectories that there is a risk there that there could be some fiscal slippage. 

For the sub‑Saharan Africa region, our growth number for 2024 is 3.8 percent. This is actually unchanged from our January projection, and it’s up from 3.4 percent in 2023. So there is a rebound in growth and activity, as the supply side improves and maybe as the negative effects of past weather shocks subside.

Daniel, anything to add? 

Mr. Leigh: After four years of quite—a lot of turmoil, this is the year where we really see a turnaround in investor appetite for Africa. We have had Côte d’Ivoire issuing the Eurobond, Benin, Kenya spreads easing. So this is going to ease some of the pressure on these economies. Also, as inflation starts to come down, inflation is coming down as those past shocks fade and also thanks to the tight policies that have been implemented. Of course, there’s a lot of risks around this scenario in the context of elections. There could be more spending in the short term that could provide a boost, but there are serious potential disruptions later on, if there’s an easing, as in other parts of the world, this is our assessment. 

Also, there’s the upside risk from further acceleration of reforms to help people get jobs and attract more foreign investment. 

Mr. De Haro: Allow me to remind you that there’s going to be regional press briefings going on later this week so we can continue tackling some of these issues. Go ahead and then we will have time for only one question, and we will have to end. 

Question: OK. Thank you very much. My name is Hope Moses from Business Day Nigeria. You raised Nigeria’s growth from 2.9 percent to 3.3 percent, so what are the drivers of this growth, considering the fact that inflation is rising every day, and then the impact of fuel subsidies and other factors. Thank you. 

Mr. Gourinchas: Thank you. I will ask Daniel. 

Mr. Leigh: Yes. Growth in Nigeria, steady but actually rising this year, from 2.9 percent last year to 3.3 percent this year. We have seen an expansion from the recovery in the oil sector, with a better security situation and also improved agriculture, benefiting from the better weather conditions and the introduction of dry season farming. So there’s a broad‑based increase also in the financial sector, in the IT sector. Inflation, yes, it has increased. Part of this reflects the reforms, the exchange rate and its pass‑through into other goods from imports to other goods. So this explains also why we revised up our inflation projection for this year to 26 percent. But with the tight monetary policies and that interest rate increase, significant interest rate increases during February and March, we think—we see inflation declining to 23 percent next year and then 18 percent in 2026. So in the right direction, definitely. 

Mr. De Haro: Last question is going to be the gentleman there. And I am sorry. There’s going to be more opportunities to ask more questions. There are regional press briefings happening later this week where you can tackle all the country‑specific questions.    

Question: Hi. I am from Geo TV Pakistan. We all know climate change is a big problem. So how has the climate change impacted the growth and inflation in the last few years? Because in 2022, floods in Pakistan caused an estimated economic loss of around $30 billion. This is an estimate by the World Bank. And I also would like to know, what is the IMF doing to help these countries that are being damaged by the climate change? 

Mr. Gourinchas: So we are seeing, in fact, increased weather shocks related to the climate transition, and that is impacting sometimes countries at a macroeconomic level. And the example of Pakistan I think is a relevant one here. But there are other countries that are, of course, in that situation. And often, what we have is that countries that are among the low‑income countries might be more vulnerable to these extreme weather events. So it’s a conjunction of having relatively little in terms of fiscal buffers or ability or infrastructure and the capacity to deal with these events and, therefore, they have a much larger impact on people’s well‑being and livelihoods. So that’s something that is factored into our rounds of projections. We do take into account the broad array of risks that countries are facing. 

The second part of your question, what the Fund can do. I mean, the Fund, along with other organizations, is of course—international organizations, is very focused on climate issues. We have an instrument, the Resilience and Sustainability Trust, that is designed to help countries build that resilience going forward and help them be able to weather these types of shocks. We are also involved in providing technical assistance in helping countries both adapt and put in place mitigation strategies for climate change. Thanks.

Mr. De Haro: OK. So we are going to have to wrap it here but on behalf of Pierre‑Olivier, Petya, and Daniel, the Research Department, Communications Department, I want to thank you all. A couple of reminders, the next press briefing is the Global Financial Stability Report in this same room. Tomorrow, pay attention to the Fiscal Monitor and as I said, later this week, regional press briefings. You can tackle those country‑specific questions. And don’t forget also to come to the Managing Director’s press briefing. Thank you very much. Any comments, questions, [email protected].

IMF Communications Department

Media relations.

PRESS OFFICER: Jose De Haro

Phone:  +1 202 623-7100 Email: [email protected]

@IMFSpokesperson

UN Tourism | Bringing the world closer

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UN report Underscores Importance of Tourism for Economic Recovery in 2022

• All Regions
• 13 Jan 2022

The important role that tourism will play in the recovery of national economies and global trade has been highlighted in the 2022 edition of the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report by the United Nations. Drawing on data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), WESP underlines the sector’s importance for the world economy and particularly for developing economies, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

After a global contraction of 3.4% in 2020 and a rebound of 5.5% in 2021, the world economy is projected to grow by 4% in 2022 and then 3.5% in 2023. Given its importance as a major export category (prior to the pandemic tourism was the third largest in the world, after fuels and chemicals), and recognizing its role as a source of employment and economic development , the sector’s recovery is expected to drive growth in every world region.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The sudden halt in international tourism caused by the pandemic has emphasized the sector’s importance to both national economies and individual livelihoods. The flagship UN report makes use of UNWTO data and analysis to assess the cost of declining tourism and illustrates just how important restarting tourism will be in 2022 and beyond.”

Jobs, economic growth and equality all hit

The sudden halt in international tourism caused by the pandemic has emphasized the sector’s importance to both national economies and individual livelihoods

The latest edition of the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects report uses key UNWTO data on international tourist arrivals and tourism receipts to illustrate how the pandemic’s impact has been felt beyond the sector itself . International tourist arrivals plunged by 73% in 2020, dropping to levels not seen for 30 years. And while tourism did record a modest improvement in the third quarter of 2021, international arrivals between January-September 2021 were still 20% below 2020 levels and 76% below 2019 levels (full year 2021 results to be released by UNWTO on 18 January).

The crisis has had a devastating impact on employment, including in hospitality, travel services and retail trade. It has disproportionately affected vulnerable groups, including youth and migrant workers, as well as workers with lower educational attainment and skills. Exacerbation of the gender divide is evident, especially in developing countries, with women seeing greater declines in employment and labour force participation than men.

Diversification for recovery

Further analysing the sector’s role in economic recovery, the UN report notes that many destinations, in particular tourism-dependent countries, will need to diversify their tourism throughout 2022 and beyond. Again drawing on UNWTO analysis , the publication shows how many destinations are developing domestic and rural tourism to help local economies in rural and depressed areas to boost job creation and protect natural resources and cultural heritage , while at the same time empowering women, youth and indigenous peoples. Additionally, the report notes how Small Island Developing States can take steps to ensure local businesses and workers retain more of the economic benefits that international tourism brings, noting for example that that “tourism leakage” amounts to an estimated 80% of all money spent by tourists in the Caribbean region.

Related links

• Download the news release in PDF
• UNWTO Market Intelligence
• UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard
• Rural Tourism
• World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022

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Thousands protest in Spain’s Canary Islands over mass tourism

SANTA CRUZ DE TENERIFE, Spain - Thousands of people protested in Tenerife on April 20, calling for the Spanish island to temporarily limit tourist arrivals to stem a boom in short-term holiday rentals and hotel construction that is driving up housing costs for locals.

Holding placards that read “People live here” and “We don’t want to see our island die”, demonstrators said changes must be made to the tourism industry that accounts for 35 per cent of gross domestic product in the Canary Islands archipelago.

“It’s not a message against the tourist, but against a tourism model that doesn’t benefit this land and needs to be changed,” one of the protesters told Reuters, during the march in Tenerife’s capital, Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

Smaller marches were held elsewhere in the island group and other Spanish cities, all of them organised by about two dozen environmental organisations ahead of the peak summer holiday season.

The organisations say local authorities should temporarily limit visitor numbers to alleviate pressure on the islands’ environment, infrastructure and housing stock, and put curbs on property purchases by foreigners.

Mr Antonio Bullon, one of the protest leaders, told Reuters: “The authorities must immediately stop this corrupt and destructive model that depletes the resources and makes the economy more precarious. The Canary Islands have limits and people’s patience, too.”

The archipelago of 2.2 million people was visited by nearly 14 million foreign tourists in 2023, up 13 per cent from 2022, according to official data.

The authorities in the islands are concerned about the impact on locals. A draft law expected to pass in 2024, toughening the rules on short lets, follows complaints from residents priced out of the housing market.

Canary Islands president Fernando Clavijo said on April 19 he felt “proud” that the region was a leading Spanish tourist destination, but acknowledged that more controls were needed as the sector continues to grow.

“We can’t keep looking away. Otherwise, hotels will continue to open without any control,” he told a press conference. REUTERS

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Clean energy is boosting economic growth

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IEA (2024), Clean energy is boosting economic growth , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/commentaries/clean-energy-is-boosting-economic-growth, Licence: CC BY 4.0

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Clean energy is moving towards centre stage in the global energy system – and as its importance rises, a new clean energy economy is emerging .

Clean electricity accounted for around 80% of new capacity additions to the world’s electricity system in 2023, and electric vehicles for around one out of five cars sold globally. At the same time, global investment in clean energy manufacturing is booming, driven by industrial policies and market demand. Employment in clean energy jobs exceeded that of fossil fuels in 2021 and continues to grow.

Quantifying the expanding role of clean energy in the economy is therefore essential to fully understand the stakes and momentum behind energy transitions.

Clean energy accounted for 10% of global GDP growth in 2023

Our new country-by-country and sector-by-sector analysis finds that in 2023, clean energy added around USD 320 billion to the world economy. This represented 10% of global GDP growth – equivalent to more than the value added by the global aerospace industry in 2023, or to adding an economy the size of the Czech Republic to global output.

This assessment is based on a first-of-its-kind analysis of three categories of activity in the clean energy sector:

• Manufacturing of clean energy technologies : investment in clean energy manufacturing, covering the value chains for solar PV, wind power and battery manufacturing
• Deployment of clean power capacity : investment in deployment of clean electricity generation capacity – such as solar PV, wind power, nuclear power and battery storage – and in electricity networks
• Clean equipment sales : sales of electric cars (EVs) and heat pumps.

It is based on detailed project-by-project data gathered and processed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) from primary and secondary sources. We conducted this analysis at the country level, and present here the in-depth results for four of the largest economies: the United States, the European Union, China and India, which together account for two-thirds of global GDP. 1

GDP in the United States grew by a robust 2.5% in 2023. Clean energy was an important contributor: The Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law drove a surge in investment in clean energy manufacturing, and sales of EVs also grew strongly. Consequently, clean energy growth accounted for around 6% of GDP growth in the world’s largest economy in 2023. This is comparable in scale to the contribution to GDP growth in 2023 from the United States’ booming, artificial-intelligence-driven digital economy. 2

Clean energy accounted for around one-fifth of China’s 5.2% GDP growth in 2023. Each of the three categories assessed grew strongly, with the largest increase coming from investment in clean power capacity, followed by clean equipment sales, particularly EVs. Expansion in clean energy manufacturing accounted for around 5% of China’s GDP growth in 2023, although the country’s surplus production capacity in technologies such as batteries (utilisation rates were around 30% in 2023) may limit the scope of this growth driver going forward. Similar assessments have come to comparable conclusions, albeit with slightly different boundaries.  

In the European Union, clean energy accounted for nearly one-third of GDP growth in 2023, the highest share of any region assessed, although its share is inflated by weak overall GDP growth of around 0.5%. Nonetheless, the EU’s strong climate targets and policies, such as the Fit for 55 package and the proposed Net Zero Industry Act, are supporting investments in clean energy manufacturing, which more than doubled between 2022 and 2023, driven in particular by battery manufacturing.

India was the fastest growing large economy in 2023, with GDP increasing by around 7.7%. Clean energy contributed slightly less than 5% of GDP growth in 2023, predominantly from investment in new solar power capacity. Meanwhile, policies such as the Production Linked Incentive are attracting investment in new clean energy manufacturing capacity. In 2023, this remained relatively small as a portion of India’s overall economy, but interest from businesses and investors is increasing.

Contribution of investment and sales in selected clean energy technologies to GDP growth, 2023

Assessing the extent to which different sectors of the clean energy economy contribute to GDP growth from year to year helps show the direction of travel. Yet looking at their share of GDP in a single year is also useful in understanding their economic importance. In 2023, clean energy investment and sales accounted for between 1% and 4% of total GDP in the four major regions assessed – substantial shares in the context of these large and diversified economies. The chemicals industry accounts for about 3% of value added in India and China. Clean energy technologies therefore already provide a sizable contribution to GDP in these economies today.

The clean energy sector also drove a substantial share of total investment growth across the economy in these regions in 2023. In the case of China, it contributed 50% of the growth in total investment in 2023, and 20% in the United States. At the global level, we estimate that around USD 200 billion was invested in clean energy technology manufacturing in 2023, an increase of 75% over the previous year. This compares with global capital investment in semiconductor manufacturing of around USD 170 billion to 250 billion per year in recent years.

Share of investment and sales in selected clean energy technologies in GDP, 2023

Share of investment in selected clean energy technologies in total investment, 2023.

This analysis highlights the scale and weight of the clean energy economy. It shows that it is not only growing quickly, but also has already become a powerful economic force. As energy transitions advance, clean energy’s importance for economies around the world is only set to grow further.

Modernising energy and industrial systems to drive energy transitions requires very large investments and the transformation of huge markets. It also comes with many significant benefits beyond mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution alone; in 2023, 36 million workers were employed across clean energy supply chains.

And while China still leads in investment in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies, other regions are also seeing a jump in projects and investments. The large share of one country has raised questions about the resilience and diversity of global clean energy technology supply chains, but it also currently provides opportunities to accelerate global decarbonisation based on an abundant supply of low-cost clean energy equipment. The analysis developed here highlights the importance of comprehensively assessing the size of the clean energy economy when designing energy, climate and industrial policies.

The estimates for investment in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies come from a first-of-its-kind analysis that builds on methodologies developed in the IEA’s The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing report and Energy Technology Perspectives reports. The detailed findings will be presented in the upcoming Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing , requested by G7 Leaders at the 2023 Hiroshima Summit in Japan. Investment in the deployment of clean power capacity comes from the forthcoming edition of our World Energy Investment series. Macroeconomic data comes from Oxford Economics, based on national sources, in order to ensure cross-country consistency. 

In 2023 , the “data processing, internet publishing, and other information services” sector contributed around 9% to real growth in gross value added (GVA).

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